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dc


Total Posts: 574
Joined: Aug 2004
 
Posted: 2006-01-18 10:12

This morning from Citibank on Guidant Corporation...discussing Boston Scientific's plans to issue $1.4bn in new equity to Abbott Laboratories to finance their latest offer for Guidant...formatting highlights added by me...

"The Abbott cash infusion of $1.4B will not have any meaningful impact on deal dilution (i.e. it is almost the same as if Boston were to issue an additional $1.4B in debt), since Boston is issuing new shares of stock to the company"

Translation: The analyst asserts that the $1.4bn of fresh equity is the same economic action as issuing $1.4bn of fresh debt...Big Smile

An added gem in the report...

"Our $48 target on GDT is still based on fundamental valuation and not on the newly proposed deal terms by either JNJ or BSX."

Translation: The analyst asserts that $48 is the fair value of the net assets, despite the bidding war among knowledgeable insiders to buy these assets at $72-80 per share.

I note that in the recent MCIP/VZ/Q bidding frenzy at $27-30 per MCI share, some analysts kept their low teens valuation targets and "Sell" ratings on MCI stock...


kr
Founding Member
NP Raider
Total Posts: 3561
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2006-01-19 00:41
Wink 

it's more than likely that they issued all that new equity because their existing debt terms wouldn't allow them to raise that much more debt to do what they want to do - um, like, why would anyone include that kind of clause, 'cause, like, they don't have that kind of thing in equity do they?  har har

my bank got pwnd

jungle
Chief Rhythm Officer
CSD LLC
Total Posts: 3169
Joined: Jul 2004
 
Posted: 2006-01-19 14:47

"...long-only investors are predominantly short..."

from an american bank's weekly economic piece


"There is still no sign of anything but a boom in China, and the government just discovered that $285 billion of GDP was missing, which is like finding out that the entire Swiss economy was hiding in Guangong province."

nsande


Total Posts: 623
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2006-01-19 15:25

Maybe "short" was referring to their stature?

Cool


"I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered." George Best

tripitaka


Total Posts: 982
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2006-01-20 12:56

The equity markets experience times of normality…and times of abnormality, when share prices become divorced from logic. We think that we are currently in one of these times of abnormality."

Major global investment bank's Japan strategy. [trans] 'We give up'


jungle
Chief Rhythm Officer
CSD LLC
Total Posts: 3169
Joined: Jul 2004
 
Posted: 2006-01-30 15:56

"...at least 5bp are missing in the Eonia pricing for the market to fully integrate a strike in H2."

phrench bank's FI weekly - red, black and confusing


"Many don't think current oil levels are near equilibrium, given that most Exxon equity analysts use about $52 a barrel in profit projections."

misfit


Total Posts: 14
Joined: Feb 2006
 
Posted: 2006-02-13 16:30

1. Enron broker report May 2000: "You aint seen nothin yet!" Strong Buy.

2. Pfizers stock price surged 0.2% on Monday

 

 

 


Henrik


Total Posts: 803
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2006-02-13 17:47

Jungle, you mean Societe Geniale?


Friendly ghost

YukaRedux
Now with added evil

Total Posts: 650
Joined: Dec 2004
 
Posted: 2006-02-23 11:16
"keep trading the range until the Nikkei breaks out" - Debit Mayonnaise.

gee, thanks for that one.

not a girl.

jungle
Chief Rhythm Officer
CSD LLC
Total Posts: 3169
Joined: Jul 2004
 
Posted: 2006-02-23 11:25

Jungle, you mean Societe Geniale?

oui.


"Pre-Bernanke yesterday it was 297-300, post-Bernanke was 294-96, and last Friday settled 302.5. Officially termed a "sh*t show" by option sophisticates."

tripitaka


Total Posts: 982
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-09 11:17

We, however, recommend investing in overvalued stocks while clearly recognizing that they are overvalued.

value investing, topix-style


let's set sail with captain morgan and never reach dry land

Anthis
It's all Greek to me

Total Posts: 1180
Joined: Jul 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-09 15:52

Since i am not a native speaker, I m not sure if the term "nonsense regressions" is practised (please confirm), if yes, apologies, if no, I welcome everybody to "regress our nonsense", probably we may discover significant relationships if the null is rejected. Big Smile

The following is copied from the abstract of a forthcoming, thus peer reviewed and approved, paper in a top tier finance journal.

"Contrary to BTW (2006), we show that the presence of structural breaks can lead to nonsense regressions, whether or not there is any small sample bias."

If my suspicions are valid, we have one more academic pearl, one more myth has collapsed, one more status symbol has been proved worthless, I am getting more and more nihilist day by day.Evil Grin


Αίεν Υψικράτειν/Τύχη μη πίστευε/Άνδρα Αρχή Δείκνυσι/Νόησις Αρχή Επιστήμης //Σε ενα κλουβί γραφείο σαν αγρίμι παίζω ατέλειωτο βουβό ταξίμι

margarita
NP High Priestess

Total Posts: 322
Joined: Oct 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-15 09:44
"nonsense regressions"   could they be referring to spurious regressions perhaps?  Haven't come across such nonsense before!   Wink

Prada issues high-heeled bonds.

ballsup


Total Posts: 90
Joined: Dec 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-15 14:19
I think nonsensical regressions would be better english.

nsande


Total Posts: 623
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-15 14:26

"nonsense regressions"

That's probably what you would get if you tried to find a connection between analyst predictions and realized values for equites, interest rates or commodity prices.

 

Evil Grin 

 


"I care not whether a man is Good or Evil; all that I care Is whether he is a Wise man or a Fool. Go! put off Holiness And put on Intellect." William Blake, Jerusalem

Holmes


Total Posts: 185
Joined: Dec 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-15 15:36

   from friday

  (BN  ) Societe Generale Shares Climb on Speculation of Citigroup

          ``It's a Friday, and there always are rumors on Fridays,''
     said ?, an analyst at ? in London. ``


Cheng


Total Posts: 2856
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2006-03-17 12:46
From a MS paper about CDS options:

"The market view will determine how appropriate it is to reset the hedge, but in order to maximise the benefit of option convexity, we would suggest investors either use: (i) longer-dated options and roll the position prior to expiry; or (ii) shorter-dated options and roll at expiry."

In terms of propositional logic: either do A or do not(A), it's up to you.

"We walk this earth / With fire in our hands / Eye for an eye / We are nemesis"

tripitaka


Total Posts: 982
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-20 11:21

It's time to mortagage your children and put it all into into the Topix:

While we see little positive news, encouraging news is that cherry trees are expected to blossom a little earlier this year....When cherry trees blossom early, the stock market tends to show solid performance in April and May. According to the Meteorological Agency’s announcement on 15 March, cherry trees in Tokyo should blossom on 22 March, nine days earlier than last year.

Bulge Bracket Equity Strategist


let's set sail with captain morgan and never reach dry land

Kutilya
Quote Machine

Total Posts: 1292
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-20 20:58


Bulge bracket bank today "Sell downside puts".



Its only 64 squares why would you expect me to walk straight.

YukaRedux
Now with added evil

Total Posts: 650
Joined: Dec 2004
 
Posted: 2006-04-19 03:29
Ozzy bank this morning: "oil prices will keep rising for some time, but this trend should reverse in the future"

And there I was with my calls struck at infinity per barrel. Guess they'll expire OTM then...

not a girl.

jungle
Chief Rhythm Officer
CSD LLC
Total Posts: 3169
Joined: Jul 2004
 
Posted: 2006-05-01 14:05

"investors should seek exposure to uranium"

recommendation in a recent commodity special


"sweat mofos, sweat, it's good for you!!!" L'il Ray

AndyM


Total Posts: 2330
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2006-05-17 15:30

One amusing call from a few months back:

Towards the end of last year, when USD/JPY was rocketing, Bear Sterns came out with:

'we are changing our 12m USD/JPY forecast from 100 to 130' - you don't like our principles? we have others...

Quite a chunky revision for a major currency cross with historical and implied vols in the single digits (at the time).

And, to add insult to injury, looks like they picked the top of the market as well.


That's all very well in practice, but will it work in theory?

granchio


Total Posts: 1540
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2006-05-17 22:33
some equity cash traders I know on friday, on monday, on tuesday: "the market is sooo cheap... great buying opportunity"

"Deserve got nothing to do with it" - Clint

Mars


Total Posts: 336
Joined: Aug 2005
 
Posted: 2006-05-17 22:48
european equity traders?

NÄ ES TÖ. TÖ ES NÄ. Nikito Nipongo.

granchio


Total Posts: 1540
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2006-05-23 00:30

yes european. but the asian ones are not faring much better, generically speaking.

The last few days have seen a rich picking of self-delusion, with its attendant boasting.

Another one today: sentiment in asia is "euphoric"! this came out as India was down 11%


"Deserve got nothing to do with it" - Clint
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