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MadMax


Total Posts: 424
Joined: Feb 2006
 
Posted: 2009-04-17 13:53
I agree with Johnny.

On a related note, it seems to me that UBS has the tendency/habit of arriving late and trying to catch up by jumping-in big, for example with LTCM and now subprime.

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 847
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2009-04-17 18:38
Bubbles are, in fact, inevitable, in my view. All has to do with the agency/incentive problem that is inherent in capitalism, so I guess you could blame human nature. Even in the absence of excess leverage, bubbles would still occur.

Speaking of PA, I am desperately trying to a) get into debt; b) buy some physical assets to hold. Doing the above while avoiding the illiquidity of property is a pain in the a*rse. If I could borrow against my pension, it would be a dream come true.

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

aaron


Total Posts: 746
Joined: Mar 2006
 
Posted: 2009-04-19 21:27
Bubbles are not inevitable, but the alternative is stagnation. Bubbles and crashes are the only things that get most people out of ruts, and free things up for new ideas.

The ideal strategy is constant exposure. Jump in early and ramp up to significant size quickly. Don't worry about getting your fingers burned in some false starts, it's worth it not to miss any of the genuine opportunities. More important, the time and energy needed to tell the false starts from the genuine opportunities doesn't improve your selection ratio much, and makes you too late to the good ones.

Because you are early and big in all the good opportunities, you don't have to increase exposure as the bubble froth expands. You don't have to guess when it will end, again the trouble and expense of trying doesn't help much, and makes your exposure too volatile. Better to make up your mind at the beginning that you will take a significant loss when things collapse.

In this way you are the victim of every idea that fizzles out, and every bubble that pops. That's the price you pay for getting all the good stuff. It works very well over time, in good markets and bad, in bubbles and crashes. The trick is to always survive.

The perfect bad strategy is to be skeptical of all new ideas and investigate thoroughly before doing anything. Once you have statistical proof that people make money in the idea, jump in really big, without the experience of everyone else the the market. Ramp up to insane levels, the more you make the more you bet, guaranteeing that your losses in the crash dwarf any profits to date. Then blame the unprecedented crash for your troubles and ask for a bailout.

granchio


Total Posts: 1530
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2009-04-19 21:34
UBS late? yes. citi normally later

"Deserve got nothing to do with it" - Clint

akimon


Total Posts: 566
Joined: Dec 2004
 
Posted: 2010-01-11 10:28
It's around the time of the year again to revisit this thread! Wink

Last year, my punt into the metals sector and commodity-related assets worked out well, but I definitely missed the boat on last year's equity rally.

Where should we put our own money in this year? What has changed in the world and how should we adjust our investments in the PA account?

Let's put our hard-earned money to work again this year!

Few thoughts / themes and ramblings:

- Currencies: USD, and USD assets may have lost their status as safeguard instruments (debatable, as other G10 currencies are just as problematic). May need to diversify away from possible currency risk.

- Emerging markets: As with the above point, emerging markets significantly performed developed markets last year. We could see further transition of wealth this year as emerging countries surpass developed countries.

- Fixed income: I don't buy into the whole hyper-inflation thing yet. With a possibility for a very slow recovery I think fixed-income holdings is still attractive as part of one's PA. The Fed is probably not going to hike when we are still seeing 10%+ unemployment. Maybe STRIPS or related securities are safe places to put our money (and get better tax treatment in some places).

- Commodities: Demand for commodities are not going away. This year's price action is not a bubble, we will see more and more demand.

- Risk assets / Equities: Having missed the boat in equities last year, it maybe stupid to buy now. Keep in mind that if you work for a financial institution, much of your comp this year will be tied to stock prices anyways so buying at this point could be adding to systematic risk correlated to your day job. Maybe property investments, or direct private investments in niche businesses could be a better alternative than equities.

- "Green energy" companies?

Any more ideas?

Tradenator


Total Posts: 1574
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2010-01-11 10:58

Sell everything! skull

In my view there is a real risk for the China story to go horribly wrong for everyone.  Everyone is bullish on them, therefore be ready to sell.  Demand can easily go away very sharply.  Buy OTM puts on GSCI, sell the shit out of Macquarie Bank (and that's a LOT of shit, especially if they raise capital to get Sempra).  Buy the agriculturals for Z10.


baghead


Total Posts: 861
Joined: Sep 2004
 
Posted: 2010-01-11 14:33
I am buying a 5y 5 times levered SovX note paying Euribor + 320 as the basic investment. SovX needs to go to 300 for the note to get triggered (wides were 180, current mid 60s).

*SovX is an equally weighted CDS index of 15 Western European sovereigns

Bids-krieg

Cheng


Total Posts: 2814
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2010-01-11 14:40
Where do you get this baby ? MS ?

"Dead eyes / See no future / Falling from grace / We are coming home"

KangaXX


Total Posts: 292
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2010-01-11 16:10
that sovx trade is a joke right?

Bright, energetic people—usually quite young—have promised to perform miracles with “other people’s money” since time immemorial.

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 995
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2010-01-11 18:10
I am buying Singapore commercial real estate via a REIT and futures on soft commodities. I think one should be long real assets and avoid the major paper currencies, USD/EUR/GBP are in the same boat, the rest should do ok.

Inflatable trader

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 847
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2010-01-11 23:53
I am trying to buy real assets, as well, but having a hard time finding anything suitable. In the meantime, I hear there's a sale now on in the Greek linker isle, so I might buy a few PA.

In seriousness, while I have a wee bit of exposure to EM (property), which I like, I think I would like more. However, to echo Tradenator's post, the whole China situation scares me a bit and really reminds me of the brouhaha arnd Japan in the 80s.

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

Dynamic Turtle


Total Posts: 165
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2010-01-12 11:20

"However, to echo Tradenator's post, the whole China situation scares me a bit and really reminds me of the brouhaha arnd Japan in the 80s."

Didn't you know it's different this time?

Edit: My PA? Mostly cash, with a little bit in gold equities. How original.


SirAppleby


Total Posts: 182
Joined: Dec 2006
 
Posted: 2010-01-12 18:49
Like others my PA is mostly cash. But, after reading the thread, I think a lower risk trade may be long Chinese financials and short commodities. China will protect their banks, but likes plunging asset prices to keep inflation under control. Until China banks are as expensive as Japan banks in the 80s, the party can continue.

@DT & others: Are you planning to be at the Miami HF gathering at end of this month?

Patience is necessary, and one cannot reap immediately where one has sown.

Dynamic Turtle


Total Posts: 165
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2010-01-13 12:25

SA, the weather in London is so bad, that I'd actually be willing to put up with incessant industry small talk, in exchange for some Floridian sun.

I don't think it's going to happen though :-(


KangaXX


Total Posts: 292
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2010-01-14 13:21
what is easiest way to trade 6month+ currency options PA?

Bright, energetic people—usually quite young—have promised to perform miracles with “other people’s money” since time immemorial.

Tradenator


Total Posts: 1574
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2010-01-14 13:27
CME FX futures options?

KangaXX


Total Posts: 292
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2010-01-14 13:33
they dont seem liquid on the OTM longer dated strikes...but could be im just not getting the data on bloom

Bright, energetic people—usually quite young—have promised to perform miracles with “other people’s money” since time immemorial.

jungle
Chief Rhythm Officer
CSD LLC
Total Posts: 3162
Joined: Jul 2004
 
Posted: 2010-01-14 14:21

My 2 pips: I'd suggest they aren't liquid for any longer-dated strikes because the longer-dated futures aren't liquid (eg. for 6E on 08-Jan-10, a relatively busy day, just 631 lots of the 2nd contract traded, and nothing beyond that). 


"When God saw that people, instead of turning to God, were turning to the medicine cabinet, God made himself available in the medicine cabinet."

SirAppleby


Total Posts: 182
Joined: Dec 2006
 
Posted: 2010-01-14 16:33
You could look at options on currency etfs (www.currencyshares.com) which may have better liquidity. They have all of the major dollar crosses available.

Patience is necessary, and one cannot reap immediately where one has sown.

mingon


Total Posts: 82
Joined: Apr 2008
 
Posted: 2011-02-16 15:31
Any views for this year :) ?

tabris


Total Posts: 1244
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2011-02-17 00:43
I actually think much of the views echo-ed last year are probably still true this year. Food prices upside still there possibly until mid/late this year. Also a shift from emerging markets back to developed markets.

Dilbert: Why does it seem as though I am the only honest guy on earth? Dogbert: Your type tends not to reproduce.

zee4


Total Posts: 58
Joined: May 2010
 
Posted: 2013-09-06 06:37
Bumping this to see if there is anything new regarding PA management.

Comments?

Бухарский

Tradenator


Total Posts: 1574
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2013-09-06 10:23

sell everything!  quick!

Edit: GBPTRY looks a bit overcooked at the moment to me.


HockeyPlayer


Total Posts: 120
Joined: Nov 2005
 
Posted: 2013-10-17 18:18
I have a couple years expenses liquid and the rest in US and international equities.

I switched my PA to Interactive Brokers a couple years ago, it is working out well.

+ Margin rates are less than 1.5% if I borrow against my portfolio.
+ They give you half of the money they earn when short sellers borrow your stocks, it is a few hundred a month, which covers the $20/month fees.

moonvest


Total Posts: 22
Joined: Mar 2010
 
Posted: 2013-10-24 03:15
HockeyPlayer,

Have you had any issues with receiving dividends from stocks on loan through the stock lending program?
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