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jslade


Total Posts: 1134
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-12 02:12
It seems nobody knows about this guy but Norwegians, and Norwegians barely know what he looks like (he's known for being the highest income Norwegian on the public tax returns). He's an electricity trader who has done very well for himself.

Link to google translated Norwegian article
Link to google translated Norwegian article
Link to google translated Norwegian article

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Nonius
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Total Posts: 12736
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-15 12:04
interesting, but if thats denominated in Krona, not THAT much.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

jslade


Total Posts: 1134
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-15 16:02
Norwegian Krones; not Swedish Krona.
Clearing a quarter billion dollars in four years (1.2b NOK) seems like a lot of lutefisk to me.

Anyone have data on Norwegian electricity futures? I know a little about Nordpool, but don't really know the lay of the land over there (like, can you hedge with long term futures, rather than the weird 24 hour spot futures on Nordpool). I'm assuming electricity spot is ridiculously seasonal, based on the weather in the couple of major cities they have in Norway.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Nonius
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Posted: 2012-08-15 22:41
yes, i mispelled. my bro lives in Trondheim and he ddid mention that it's curious that tax returns are public record.

dont know about electricity futures.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

granchio


Total Posts: 1540
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-16 09:21
public tax records, interesting.
i am not sure why it seems to be a taboo in anglo-saxon societies, given that in theory they attach no shame to wealth.
it could be a fairly gentle and elegant way to address some issues.

"Deserve got nothing to do with it" - Clint

NIP247


Total Posts: 544
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2012-08-16 09:44
Public Tax Records in Scandi countries are due to Right to Information held by the government. The original reason has nothing to do with "social control" of people's fortune-

In my opinion, it needs to be reviewed to differentiate between state affairs and private affairs, as long as the individual has access to information about him held by the state.

Today, the "rich lists" are a haven for professional kidnappers and blackmailers in these countries...

On your straddle, done on the puts, working the calls...

nsande


Total Posts: 623
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-16 10:00

Nordpool has daily, weekly, monthly and yearly contracts.

Yes, there are seasonal fluctuations. Demand is high during winter, i.e. most power is used for heating. It can get pretty cold here. Cry

One big influence is the weather, i.e. the temperature affects the demand and the amount of rain affects the level in the water reservoirs. Almost all power generation in Norway is hydroelectric.

 


"Det nya räknesättet Aggression: - Ett plus ett är jävlar i mig fem!" "Alcohol and Calculus don't mix - never drink and derive"

jslade


Total Posts: 1134
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-17 00:10
@nonius: just checking: Norse moneys are bigger than Swedish moneys.

@nsande: Thanks for this information. The scuttlebutt I get from my Norwegian pals is that this guy is a huge consumer of weather and weather forecasting data. My own researches into this general space is that residential demand is a piece of piss to forecast on an hourly level with a decent weather forecast + simple seasonality. Industrial/commercial is usually easily modeled with seasonality. Aggregate (I only talk about the other stuff, as it was some old paid work): with a year's worth of temperature and demand data and a perfect weather forecast, I can get ~1% MAPE everywhere I've looked; better if you include humidity and wind. Most of the uncertainty in the day ahead forecast is weather uncertainty. I've never looked at the futures data, as nobody paid me to do so, but I'm assuming there are all kinds of opportunities here if there are futures traded on the right demand aggregates. Norway looks like a great place to do this, since it is sparsely populated and weather is *very* important there. Never thought of the hydro thing, but it makes perfect sense.

As for the public tax records; google on "The Law of Jante" or the word "passelig" some time. It drives my young Norwegian pals to expatriation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Jante

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Nonius
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Total Posts: 12736
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-18 02:14
that jante shit looks number sixian sort of.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Hugin


Total Posts: 9
Joined: Jan 2008
 
Posted: 2012-08-28 14:40

@jslade: Interesting, thanks for sharing the articles.

One thing you may need to consider is that the Scandinavian (and to some extent the northern European) electricity market is quite connected. So you probably need to model usage in the whole region. And this will probably become more important since it seems all of northern Europe looks at Norway for balancing the wind power when the wind is not blowing. Denmark does this already and with Germany closing down nuclear there are discussions on improving the connections from Norway/Sweden to Denmark/Germany.

I guess price impact will also depend upon the current state of the power generation system, especially (as nsande already stated) the current and predicted water levels in the reservoirs, but also on the need of transportation between the regions. Last year when nuclear in Sweden was producing much less than usual, prices soared due to limitations in transportation capacity from northern Sweden/Norway. In short production capacity and where it is placed will have impact on the regional price moves.

Regarding Jante it is sadly true enough, especially for smaller towns and villages. I grew up in one of those places and if someone had the nerve to do something, like starting a new business, people actually wanted him to fail even though they would benefit personally if he was successful. However, in my experience it is much better in the bigger cities.


Maggette


Total Posts: 1051
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-29 17:01
According to your name and avatar you are from norge:)?

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Hugin


Total Posts: 9
Joined: Jan 2008
 
Posted: 2012-08-29 18:28
No, Sweden actually. But I have worked in Norway if that counts... 

Azx


Total Posts: 36
Joined: Sep 2009
 
Posted: 2018-09-13 15:14
Einar Aas is facing bankruptcy following multi-million euro default.

nsande


Total Posts: 623
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2018-09-14 16:00
The guy is brilliant but somehow also incredibly stupid. Why did he not put his trading activities in a limited company. Now he (and his family) stands to lose everything.
It seems that he had a huge bet on the spread between Norwegian and German power prices. The spread moved a lot on Monday and he could not cover the margin calls. Nasdaq closed his position and he lost over 100M EUR.

"Det nya räknesättet Aggression: - Ett plus ett är jävlar i mig fem!" "Alcohol and Calculus don't mix - never drink and derive"

Jurassic


Total Posts: 133
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-09-16 14:40
does anyone know of a good primer on power markets?
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