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tbretagn


Total Posts: 251
Joined: Oct 2004
 
Posted: 2017-09-22 17:21
For trade finance the problem arises when people use the L/C multiple times to get financing (cough cough Chinese Copper). Having a ledger where the financing of deals is kinda secured by the blockchain would help.

Et meme si ce n'est pas vrai, il faut croire en l'histoire ancienne

rftx713


Total Posts: 95
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2017-09-22 20:00
That's a good point and interesting as well. Apologies for being a bit of a pain in the ass, but that issue could be solved with regular electronic solutions, I don't get why you have to use a blockchain. Clearly with an LC you trust a third party (the banks involved), so if you trust them, you don't need a trustless solution... just one that they control rather than the counterparty.

Or, since we're assuming that we surmounted the trust issue, abstract it one level higher and ICE could set up something similar to ECONF+LC clearing. Everyone is familiar with FIX and there's no need to trust some blockchain that doesn't have recourse, except through that trusted third party...

JTDerp


Total Posts: 42
Joined: Nov 2013
 
Posted: 2017-09-22 21:02
rftx ["...using hype of a technology to push through political/social changes where the first best choice was resisted."]

That's what I was speculating on as being the case, not to say that PGP is better/best in any regard, as I barely know anything about it, and nothing about Blockchain. Just that cryptos have greater mainstream momentum behind them...sort of Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0.

The clouded mind seeks; the emptied mind finds.

rftx713


Total Posts: 95
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2017-09-23 18:37
JTDerp: makes total sense to me, I think that's one of the few merits to the technology. Interestingly, it's not actually the technology itself that has the merit, it's the idea of it :)

tbretagn


Total Posts: 251
Joined: Oct 2004
 
Posted: 2017-09-27 16:07
Got sent a presentation for a bitcoin hedge fund with returns of 6000%. Do you think I should invest. They use ML and NLP, and the founders seem to be at least out of high school.
There's no risk involved right? I will be able to recoup my capital?

Et meme si ce n'est pas vrai, il faut croire en l'histoire ancienne

jslade


Total Posts: 1093
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2017-09-27 20:18
@Cheng:

"PGP type things, you have to trust something

I think you lost me. You have to trust the algorithm, ok, but the same argument holds for blockchains where you have to trust the hash function. What else belongs to "something"?"

The payment system and timers for example. Smart contract put up at time T, address X gets paid (in somewhat imaginary money) when Y happens. If you just PGP sign a regular contract and store it in some arbitrary place, well, who cares? Who owns the clocks that define when it was signed? Why not just sign a regular piece of paper and fight it out in the courts?

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Cheng


Total Posts: 2836
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2017-09-28 14:11
Ok, thanks.

"He's man, he's a kid / Wanna bang with you / Headbanging man" (Grave Digger, Headbanging Man)

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 240
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2017-10-16 00:36
The segwit2x hard fork is almost here. Last time there was an event like this (the Bitcoin Cash fork), there was a pure arbitrage opportunity. At least at Bitfinex, longs received forked BCH, but shorts didn't owe any BCH at the time of the split. The free lunch was to take offsetting positions, and get BCH for free.

(More details from Matt Levine here)

I'm looking for a similar exploit with the segwit2x fork. As far as I can tell, Bitfinex has improved their accounting, in a way that doesn't allow for the arb on the upcoming fork. For any crypto maestros out there: 1) Am I missing anything with Bitfinex, is there any arb left open by their procedure? 2) Are any other other exchanges handling the situations in an exploitable way like Bitfinex did with the BCH fork?

Edit Addendum: Somewhat related, didn't realize there was also another fork coming Oct 25 - Bitcoin Gold (BCG). It appears that Bitfinex isn't supporting this fork. So the simple arb is to short BTC at Bitfinex, then hold an offsetting position in a wallet. After the fork, split the wallet, use the BTC to cover the short, and end with free BCG. (Minus the 1 day lending fee.) Though I don't know how much the forked coin will be actually be worth, given that basically no one's supporting it.

As for Segwit2x (B2X), from what I can tell Poloniex isn't supporting it. Same story holds here, short at Poloniex, hold in wallet and split your own coins. A lot more counterparty risk with Poloniex, but the rewards seem pretty high. The B2X futures at Bitfinex are forecasting a price of 0.15BTC. As far as I can tell, this also seems to be the case with BitMex. And maybe GDAX, though it was unclear if they're going to unconditionally credit B2X, or just credit it in the scenario that it "takes over" BTC.
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