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il_vitorio


Total Posts: 103
Joined: Aug 2014
 
Posted: 2015-06-16 19:12
I do not guys, some of this apocalyptic article sounds to me, what do you think?

One of my most productive days was throwing away 1000 lines of code.

Tradenator


Total Posts: 1576
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2015-06-16 20:01
So is there a specific question about trading or are you just wanting to propagate zerohedge items here?

il_vitorio


Total Posts: 103
Joined: Aug 2014
 
Posted: 2015-06-16 20:44
No, it is just an opinion from you guys, I do not even know this "zerohedge" but the article seems interesting in the way they present the events, as I am not in the trading environment at the moment I would like to know the opinion of someone more in the "money".

Sorry if it bothers someone.

One of my most productive days was throwing away 1000 lines of code.

Tradenator


Total Posts: 1576
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2015-06-16 21:25
Maybe move this thread to General?

Cheng


Total Posts: 2814
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2015-06-17 08:38
Generally the following holds: (Source == ZeroHedge) => (Apocalypse = veeeery close)

"Sad wings of destiny / Where have they gone? / I know eternally / I'll carry on" (Rob Halford, Sad Wings)

FDAXHunter
Founding Member

Total Posts: 8335
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2015-06-17 08:45
Now I got sucked into this thread. As much as DB sucks, I think there are a number of sell-side institutions much closer to the "extinct species list".

(I think this thread is a prime example of one of the earliest xkcd strips)

Edit: We should have a phorum called "you're wrong". Just kidding. We shouldn't.

The Figs Protocol.

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 4984
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2015-06-17 14:22
It's funny how people will correlate the departure of figure heads with problems (departures of the egomaniacs at the top of the c-suite is correlated with stock price which in turn has no correlation with the fundamental health of a company, esp an older company that has been massaging their balance sheets for so long even they are starting to believe them).

Also, AAA doesn't mean much in the court of public opinion, but BBB does. Post-crisis asymmetric ratings perception.

As for T1 capital, well....

DB (US) is the same sorta disheveled, schizoid, lumbering, disembodied organization it was pre-crisis, just kinda lumbering along without any real cohesive narrative linking its parts together.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 848
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2015-06-17 21:24
IMHO, based on my personal interactions with the aforementioned institution, these days it's actually quite a lot more disheveled, lumbering, disembodied and lacking cohesive narrative than it used to be, either in recent past or pre-crisis.

That said, this article, like many others, provides evidence that HeroZedge is full of it...

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-04 12:29
[Should be in Off-Topic]

I'm loathe to get on a ZH bandwagon but I now think DB will go within the next year, not that it should but it's simply losing confidence. Using the JP Morgan observation in 1907 that banking is about confidence: DB's losing it bit by bit and the IMF report didn't help. Uniquely this confidence loss isn't about their capital base so I don't see how they can fix it before a fall.

On a default, the TARGET2 flows become a lot more interesting. A reversal of flows for once (out of Germany) magnifying the effects on the German banking system.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-04 21:28
aren't they too big to fail or something like that? would germany allow this to happen?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-04 21:32
I think this one's more like too big to bail...!

Anyway, Merkel's told Renzi there's a new order in Europe of debt bail-ins so nobody worry. If you believe the FT Italy's about to shred that and capitalize its banks whose CDS is trading tighter than DB's! DB's 20 wider than Unicredit.

Posted by Kitno on 2008-03-14 16:23
With BSC gone we can all focus on "the others". A few CDS street participants were pulling lines with BSC & others at the end of last week. Hard to lift protection at 80 on a name when the cpty's running at >500. Wonder when the LEH rumours'll start.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
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Posted: 2016-07-04 23:47
I ain't a specialist on this stuff, by any means Kitno, but isn't the US a little more cut throat about things than Germany. Ok, they'd never let JPM or GS or MS fail or get swallowed, but all the others are fair game. Surely DB is the crown jewel of German banking, as far as Germans are concerned. Read, German politicians. Is it that too big that Germany couldn't bail it out? This isn't rhetorical.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

katastrofa


Total Posts: 357
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2016-07-04 23:53
They sacrificed Greek economy to save it.

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
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Posted: 2016-07-05 00:04
more DB executives want to drive Benz and BMWs than Germans want to bank at DB?

edit: anyway, maybe Kitno's right.....

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-05 10:08
I think it's important to look at what's changed in the structure of the financial system from 2007/2008 (in this case in Europe). It won't be a replay of the past. The worries about DB are different to BSC LEH and MER and the ability and rationale of intervening.

The capital structure alone has changed significantly with Cocos and the previously sacrosanct senior unsecured debt write downs (remember when even Tier 1 was sacrosanct too?). Along with many new problems like the Euro. Greece and the periphery only became problems in 2009/2010. Member states can't act and intervene as they did in the previous crisis hence my Merkel/Renzi comment.

We should probably start a new thread on this.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-06 11:45
Another record DB equity low today on the equity: DB -6% (context Unicredit -0.5%, Barc -1.5%).

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Rookie_Quant


Total Posts: 731
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-12 08:59
Do these CoCo bonds trade with any liquidity? I dont know the structure well, that that seems as much a signal as equity price moves, no?

"These metaphors and similes aint similar to them, not at all." -Eminem

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-12 14:54
As the credit market goes they have reasonable/good liquidity.

Generally two flavours: convert to common equity when core Tier I is below X; or get written down. Also regulators can forcibly convert.

It's so good pension fund managers were allowed to buy these when few others would a few years ago isn't it?

Oh yeh: the crux of my gripes is that in years past as a PM you took a MTM hit but could ride it to par if things got sour (bar a default). No such luck here you head to 75.000 and you're thinking hmmm this could be forcibly triggered and regulators forbid the banks disclosing their Pillar X.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Cheng


Total Posts: 2814
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-12 17:37
As a sidenote, most that can be written down can also be written up again but not all (putting the latter in the firing line before the equity...).

"He's man, he's a kid / Wanna bang with you / Headbanging man" (Grave Digger, Headbanging Man)

rftx713


Total Posts: 73
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-07-12 18:45
>I'm loathe to get on a ZH bandwagon but I now think DB will go within the next year, not that it should but it's simply losing confidence. Using the JP Morgan observation in 1907 that banking is about confidence: DB's losing it bit by bit and the IMF report didn't help. Uniquely this confidence loss isn't about their capital base so I don't see how they can fix it before a fall.

>On a default, the TARGET2 flows become a lot more interesting. A reversal of flows for once (out of Germany) magnifying the effects on the German banking system.

Could you elaborate a bit more on how changes since 08 may make this situation better/worse/different?

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-14 08:15
IMHO investors are far more likely to take risk when they know the potential risks.

Pre-crisis your senior debt and bank capital would be repaid in whole unless the issuer defaulted. In the worst case your bank capital wasn't called as expected (ironically DB) or suspended coupons.

Now that repayment in full may not happen (bail-in). It's like a pack of cards collapsing before a default otherwise sooner than would have been the case pre-crisis.

Pre crisis you took a view on bailouts happening and banks recapitalizing (which was the view pre Crisis....recall Moody's JDA analysis assumptions from 2006?). After recapitalizing the senior debt funding carries on. I'm not sure that funding would continue after a bailin; especially in DB's case as the market is (overly) preoccupied with its derivative nationals.

Oh and if your question was about ZH: it's generally frequented by and spins stories by intelligent conspiracy theorists.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

rftx713


Total Posts: 73
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-07-14 18:21
Thanks for the response. I really am new to anything outside of commodities, but am familiar enough with ZH to know to take what they say with the entire shaker of salt :)

That response makes sense. I searched for Moody's JDA analysis but afraid I didn't find anything that would be useful to a beginner. This is probably not the right thread but any materials/resources you can think of that would be useful for getting up to speed?

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-14 18:57
Joint default analysis. I remember the day it was released and a slew of banks got upgraded by Moody's. Basically in a default they'd get bailed out hence the upgrade. Oh how we naively chortled that day at the ruse of upgrades. Alas the joke was on us...and probably Moody's in reality. Not thay we foresaw a banking crisis but it did happen although sovereigns did get nuked...

I do vividly recall taking the piss out of people piling into Icelandic banks at that time in 2006, which I think was the reason for JDA. Too many bookie nights under the bridge to recall properly. Another joy removed...

The world's moved on now, it's not really worth reading about.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

papumem


Total Posts: 4
Joined: Nov 2010
 
Posted: 2016-08-09 11:00
Has anyone come across good thought pieces on future of European banks in general and DB in particular? Beyond the usual MS-OliverWyman annual...

Kitno


Total Posts: 340
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-09-30 01:17
The DB Sub CDS curve is now flat.

I would posit unless Cryan comes out with an amazing, ingenious box of tricks and clear strategy out of this mess the future of DB is assured: it's merely a question of how it fails - either bankruptcy or the form of bailout. I do think the latter much more likely for many reasons.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.
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