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marGinTale


Total Posts: 11
Joined: Jul 2007
 
Posted: 2016-03-25 12:10
Any ideas how to trade pro or con the Brexit event.
OOM options on GBPEUR? FTSE?
Thanks
Dan

tbretagn


Total Posts: 245
Joined: Oct 2004
 
Posted: 2016-03-26 21:49
well vol has now priced the risk. Problem is getting a fair price on wings, which is hard to get. a 3m 1.10 OT is around 6%, so not really interesting there

Et meme si ce n'est pas vrai, il faut croire en l'histoire ancienne

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 852
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-03-29 10:05
Betfair...

Referendum result

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

marGinTale


Total Posts: 11
Joined: Jul 2007
 
Posted: 2016-03-29 19:15
:-)
Actually I was wondering if there was an arb versus betting implied brexit probabilities like betfair or more generally oddschecker

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 852
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-03-29 19:41
TBH, I have never figured out how to come up with a trade in the market that would distill the essence of Brexit, so that I could juxtapose it vs Betfair. I couldn't do it before, with the Scottish referendum, and the divergence there, if memory serves, was greater.

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

Kitno


Total Posts: 341
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-06-19 20:44
The weekend Brexit odds swing to IN at Betfair is mostly down to postal voting result leakage. Yes, the death of the murdered MP is having an effect but the postal votes are concrete non-public fact. These votes were priced in as INers. If you want a cheap OUT hedge on little new news now is time to execute (at the bookies).

EDIT: given after Martinghoul's reply - solely my own view and that of others.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 852
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-19 20:53
Postal voting result leakage? Release of any such information is illegal, isn't it? Where is it coming from?

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-20 07:39
sounds urban-legend-ish.

and postal voting? what percentage of the entire population would that be?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

goldorak


Total Posts: 979
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-20 08:47
In a real democracy like Switzerland it is about 90-100% depending on the area. Tongue out

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 852
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-20 10:32
Postal vote should be a pretty meaningful share in the UK. Specifically, for the Scottish Neverendum, share of the postal vote was smth like 19% (based on the Electoral Commission report).

I wasn't trying to sound sinister or anything, but I would be intensely curious if this type of leakage is possible in the UK.

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

eeng


Total Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2014
 
Posted: 2016-06-20 11:41
Sounds too funny that postal votes are counted before poll day and not on the same day or even later

Kitno


Total Posts: 341
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-06-20 21:58
[Intended for another thread. Moved to Bitcoin.]

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 12:11
apropos, funny to read the huge biases in the various UK rags as they grossly misinform (on both sides) readers about polling trends...

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 15:25
Mirror/Daily Mail, go figure, show Brexit ahead
Independent showing remain ahead.

My money is on remain.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 852
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 15:48
The dynamics of the Brexit/Bremain support in UK media has been interesting. The newspapers with the highest circulation (and, I presume, internet readership) have all endorsed Brexit. Specifically, the Sun, the Daily Mail and now the Telegraph. The ones with relatively low circulation, such as the Guardian and the Independent, have come out for Bremain.

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:01
IQ cutoff?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:01
There is a rift going through British society:

Remain | Brexit
------------------------------------------
Young | Old
Many races | purely white
London | England exc London
Scotland
Wales
N-Ireland
Overseas
Businesses | Unemployables
Employees
Investments



The problem is of course that "white old racists with no future and no investments in the markets" are a very large part of society.
And those people are a coinflip away of throwing the UK back into the 1970s.

IQ cutoff: since it's almost 50-50 in the polls I guess it's 110 (or whatever the average is these days)

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12666
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:06
Remain | Brexit
MCgeneratedname | old white assholes ?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:08
bingo.
once I have established my dictatorship I'll make Britain join the Eurozone.

katastrofa


Total Posts: 359
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:12
@MCgeneratedname

It's spelt "overseas".

Btw, I'm relatively young, employable, live in London, wasn't born in Britain - and vote Leave.

pj


Total Posts: 3318
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:19
@ katastrofa
> I'm relatively young, employable, live in London,
> wasn't born in Britain - and vote Leave.

Why? I mean, I don't think you are wrong or something,
just curious what are the reasons?

Not Boris 350 million argument. That's one is plain silly.

I saw a dead fish on the pavement and thought 'what did you expect? There's no water 'round here stupid, shoulda stayed where it was wet.'

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:26
* forwarding another name to the head of my future secret state police*

sarcasm aside: I think my categories are pretty correct (N-Ireland & Wales might be 50-50).

and I believe the impact of a brexit will be severe. Long and Short term.
Short:
A giant pile of s**t will unravel when the GBP puts kick in.
Even capital controls are now being discussed (behind closed doors).
Long:
I see absolutely no growth path for Britain outside the EU. The debt the UK accumulated will come to bite back after a few years.

katastrofa


Total Posts: 359
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:33
"Why? I mean, I don't think you are wrong or something,
just curious what are the reasons?"

Democracy deficit
Economic rape of Greece
Apalling treatment of refugees (forced expulsion to Turkey! that's contrary to international law)
Forcing TTIP and other neo-liberal policies on us

I am for cooperation between European nations, but on a different basis than the EU provides. I used to be an Europhile, but not anymore.

radikal


Total Posts: 253
Joined: Dec 2012
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:37
Betting odds seem to be steadily worsening for Brexit. Down to 25%.

There are no surprising facts, only models that are surprised by facts

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:42
The betting markets are an interesting topic.
So here in London sits an army of hedgies with countless Billions under management.
The only betting market anyone looks at is betfair which matched £43m so far.
A few thousands open at the marginal price.
And the entire world is staring at this market constantly.

How cheap would it be to manipulate it... Just saying.
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