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MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:42
.

radikal


Total Posts: 256
Joined: Dec 2012
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:45
Is manipulating a betting market illegal in UK? I have no idea actually..

My theory for why betting markets spiked and then have backed off is that the unsophisticated flows which are less price sensitive have finished allocating and the "smarter" money wants more nuanced exposure than just the binary. That's maybe 100% bullshit though..

There are no surprising facts, only models that are surprised by facts

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:51
It's not manipulation as such if you cannot influence the underlying event.
So it's only prosecutable if you are an athlete betting on your own competition.

And I don't think it would be about exposure but about changing the news flow.
The shift in the odds towards remain really took the wind out of Farage's sails.

On the sails is a picture of a brown person with stinky lines of course.
(for Americans: Farage and the Leave campaigners are blatant racists)

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 16:51
.

Kitno


Total Posts: 346
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 17:01
Can we leave the actual politics and incendiary comments at the point of logging in to the site please?

Calling half the UK rascist because they disagree with you is incendiary.

Can we all stick to macroeconomics and trades in this thread please?

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 17:06
Here is another point to think about the macro impact of a brexit:

Every contract I have come across this year that had any bilateral component had a "cancel on June 24th if Brexit happens" -clause.

ronin


Total Posts: 216
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 17:19
>Is manipulating a betting market illegal in UK?


It wouldn't be market abuse according to the FCA handbook.

Market abuse deals with qualifying investments admitted for trading on a prescribed market, or related investments (i.e. derivatives).

So manipulating a share price woulde be market abuse, manipulating a spread bet linked to a share price would be market abuse, but manipulating a political betting market wouldn't be.

Quite sensibly, in my view. I am not a great believer in the utility of market abuse regulation.



"People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing every day" --Winnie The Pooh

pj


Total Posts: 3331
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 17:21
> Calling half the UK rascist because they disagree with you is incendiary.
Typical white chauvinist pig remark Tongue out
With which I agree.


Betting market manipulation, what for?
Cui bono?
> Just saying.

I saw a dead fish on the pavement and thought 'what did you expect? There's no water 'round here stupid, shoulda stayed where it was wet.'

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 859
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 17:32
I imagine that the idea of manipulating the Brexit bookies is more attractive in theory than in practice. ZH was getting excited about it as well, but color me unimpressed.

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 17:41
>Betting market manipulation, what for?
>Cui bono?

Changing the news flow.
Every news report here mentions the betfair odds (since the polls are all over the place).
This will change voting behavior.
Voters want to back a winner.

still... just saying

ronin


Total Posts: 216
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 18:55
Just because it is not market abuse, doesn't mean a regulated entity would or could do it - not with client money, and not with own money.

"People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing every day" --Winnie The Pooh

katastrofa


Total Posts: 361
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-21 23:32
What about the 1st Principle for Business: Integrity?

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12684
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 00:10
"Just because it is not market abuse"

the issue with these things in "regulated" jurisdictions is the rules can change and fast. People can be implicated, arrested and serve time, ex-poste. Part of that is due to populistic politics when the shit hits the fan. And, in England and Wales, law is such a slippery slope (think US case law on MELTish steroids) I would never ever wager on getting away with "manipulating" anything that could be construed by "reasonable" minds as unethical/criminal/etc.

Note: by saying "on steroids" I mean things are much further away from "the code", ie, much more open to interpretation.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

ronin


Total Posts: 216
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 10:59
"Getting arrested and serving time" would not be my primary concern if that sort of situation happened in a place I work.

"Misuse of client funds and conflict of interest" would be.




"People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing every day" --Winnie The Pooh

h0h0


Total Posts: 41
Joined: Apr 2010
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 11:20
Britain first mate

Kitno


Total Posts: 346
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 11:24
Surely the cheapest mechanism (if you had say £2MM) of affecting a vote would be spending money on PIs to attack and smear the leading proponents of the side you don't like with the support of friendly journos over 80s long lunches.

And I mean viciously smear. Forget NY Post/Daily Mail...I mean real drive bys.

Or for Brexit just sponsor/pay a lot to a small number of eurocrats to write papers as to the post-Remain vote of confidence and immediate post-Remain plans for an EU army, EU tax, Turkey etc.

I'm finding this vote hard to form an opinion. Err towards status quo for remain yet outers are more motivated to vote.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12684
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 11:34
Telegraph now admitting remain @ 51. muhahahaha.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

ronin


Total Posts: 216
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 14:43
Funny how each side was given enough rope to hang itself, and they made great use of it.

Leave have convinced people that they don't want to leave, and Remain have convinced people that they don't want to remain.



"People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing every day" --Winnie The Pooh

Kitno


Total Posts: 346
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 15:07
With the way politics has been going the last 5-7y (rise in extremism) Britain has opened Pandora's Box. So it would appear Britain (if it votes Remain) would suffer first mover disadvantage. If Denmark has a referendum to leave the EU or Holland to leave EU/EUR I think things start unraveling fast leaving the North to pay bills.

Who in the market sees the EUR as a sustainable currency on a 10y horizon?

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 859
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 15:54
Yeah, M5S wins in Rome and Turin are interesting in this context, especially given the rhetoric:
M5S

As to EUR being a sustainable ccy in 10 years, it would very much depend on what EUR is at that point.. I would agree that, in order to survive, it will have to look quite different.

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

Patrik
Founding Member

Total Posts: 1337
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 17:39
UK screwed it up.. Lost the opportunity to lead a coalition of say 5 countries (say UK, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Holland) to spend say 18-24months to make progress on a "fork" of the project - a United State of Europe path for Eurozone countries, and a free trade zone+ path for others. No progress and hold in-out referendums in 5 countries on same date - that'd be some leverage and have a chance to jolt things into action.

Now they wont be in a good position to cause any meaningful change if they stay or leave. So one will have to wait for the slow system of EU to realize it needs real change (and not fiddling at the edges), or for the market to destroy the Eurozone in the next big crisis. My guess would be for the latter to be the catalyst for the next opportunity to get on a more sustainable path..

Capital Structure Demolition LLC Radiation

MCgeneratedname


Total Posts: 143
Joined: Dec 2013
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 17:58
i was about to write a lengthy post about how the EU is increasing trade between its members and this vastly outweighs any problems one might have with it.
but that would be lost here.

just an update from the front: loooooooooong queues in front of the foreign exchange booths here and they are running out of Euro and Dollar notes.

Martinghoul


Total Posts: 859
Joined: Oct 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 18:28
In light of the various imbalances evident within the EU (a lot has been written on the subject) and the resulting tensions, is increasing intra-EU trade always a net positive? Just wonderin'...

Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

h0h0


Total Posts: 41
Joined: Apr 2010
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 19:22
@Patrick

We will still have a strong coalition consisting of: Great Britain, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway to renegotiate terms.

(hopefully joined soon by Denmark!)

katastrofa


Total Posts: 361
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2016-06-22 23:03
Fittingly, new "Independence Day" movie is out tomorrow in UK cinemas :D
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