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Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 00:41
Ironic.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


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Posted: 2016-06-23 00:53
Based on Quebec and Scotland it should be 54/46 tomorrow (In/Out).

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 08:13
Sounds about right. Maybe not quite as wide. We'll see.

PS: nice thunderstorm last night in London...

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 08:22
is it possible to get a "live" feed of intraday exit poll results? #exitpoll?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

pj


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Posted: 2016-06-23 09:04
The vote counting isn't done in real time.
The best you might get the journalists's estimates,
and they are often misleading.

I saw a dead fish on the pavement and thought 'what did you expect? There's no water 'round here stupid, shoulda stayed where it was wet.'

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 09:14
vote counting isn't but there's this thing called an "exit poll", where you ask a mofo coming out of the voting booth how he voted.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

cquand


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Posted: 2016-06-23 09:17
exit poll can't be published before 10 pm I think

but all funds /banks have ordered some, so the gbpusd will be you live feed

MCgeneratedname


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Posted: 2016-06-23 09:24
update: It's raining in the South East (including London). Not raining anywhere else.

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 09:39
@cquand, formal exit polls maybe they can't be published till later on, but there are some "hosted" exit polls on Twitter. I've checked some of them....don't trust them at all.

in fact what I was thinking of doing was having a live feed of exit polling and compare that to a live feed of GBP....

Chiral is Tyler Durden

baghead


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Posted: 2016-06-23 10:29
to construct a reliable exit poll one would need good data from past elections/referendums to select a representative sample of polling stations.

This time it's not as easy as it is during a general election which is why the usual BBC/ITV/Sky commissioned exit polls are not run today.

Fromage not Farage

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 10:32
yeah, good point.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Tradenator


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Posted: 2016-06-23 10:37
oddschecker

Currently: out 43.24%, in 57.76%, 09:30 GMT

EspressoLover


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Posted: 2016-06-23 10:46
How to pretend like you give a shit about the election.

baghead


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Posted: 2016-06-23 12:55
declaration times

Fromage not Farage

radikal


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Posted: 2016-06-23 16:27
@Katasrofa -- Shit, that's the most underlooked factor in this whole debate.

There are no surprising facts, only models that are surprised by facts

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 16:30
LOL!

anyway, I think Kitno's estimate of 54 46 is looking pretty much like how it's going to be. maybe 55 45.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

baghead


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Posted: 2016-06-23 17:52
thinking 62/38

Fromage not Farage

Patrik
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Posted: 2016-06-23 18:05
Vol markets seems to have called it for Remain - did that early on today, hours ago. For things I follow at least (oil, gold, vix, gbp vol, and a few more). Seemed a bit early to me, but perhaps more sign of an end of constant insurance buying rather than outright new selling though..

Capital Structure Demolition LLC Radiation

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 19:15
European Union Song

Chiral is Tyler Durden

baghead


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Posted: 2016-06-23 20:12
Also, note, there will be a YouGov poll publish at 10pm. This is not an exit poll. It's the same phone/online shea but "on the day".

Fromage not Farage

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 20:14
any you mofos checked out the liquidity in FX today? gbp. eur. eurgbp. a bit wider, not as deep, but seems like some opps, no? even on a fast-paced scale.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


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Posted: 2016-06-23 20:52
I kicked the living shit out of Betfair around 10AM this morning. Seemed the easiest mechanism PA all told.

Salut toi, je vais au Social Club avec des amis ce soir, c'est au 142 rue Montmartre. J'ai mis ta robe préférée. Viens me trouver.

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-06-23 21:33
coolio Henry

Chiral is Tyler Durden

etuka2


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Posted: 2016-06-23 21:37
54-46 is more musically literate than 55-45.

goldorak


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Posted: 2016-06-23 21:45
And me who thought that enlightened Brits had all already exit their country, hence EU, buying overpriced chalets in Verbier, Switzerland. It looks like plenty of others would like to follow them. Half the UK joining the Swiss confederation will not be acceptable. Time to install dynamite charges on the tops for the great wash out. Rebuilding will not take that much time anyway.

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.
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