Forums  > General  > numerai  
     
Page 3 of 4Goto to page: 1, 2, [3], 4 Prev Next
Display using:  

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 1016
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2017-03-10 09:32
It seems they have discovered that live performance can differ from backtests - even out of sample ones! Of course, the solution is a new crypto-currency. meh

"When a data scientist submits predictions to Numerai, those predictions are validated against historical data, and Numerai makes payouts based on how well the models performed on historical data. But Numerai cares much more about live performance in our hedge fund than backtest performance. Staking Numeraire is a way to incentivize live performance and completely disincentivize overfitting. The staking mechanism solves the biggest problem in quantitative finance; it is an economic forcing function to make backtest performance identical to live performance."


"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

jslade


Total Posts: 1148
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2017-03-11 06:55
If I find out they don't have anyone who shows up to work in silver pants on roller skates I'm going to be really disappointed in Numerai.

On the upside, their solidity testing framework is one of the cleanest I have yet seen, and I presently have a need for such a thing (g*d help me).
Hammertime

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 1016
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2017-03-14 08:13
Solidity testing?

"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

Scotty


Total Posts: 726
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2017-03-14 10:33
Yeah, what are you talking about jslade? 😀



“Whatever you do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius and power and magic in it.”

Peerless


Total Posts: 108
Joined: Aug 2012
 
Posted: 2017-03-14 11:26
Solidity is a smart-contract oriented language that is used for Ethereum (a currently hyped crypto). I am not sure if that is what jslade is referring to but I remember reading that Numerai is switching, at least partially, to Ethereum to reward performers.
Solidity testing refers, I suppose, to how secure a smart-contract would be programmed which is quite important given the DAO hack of last year.

Disclosure: from the top of my head, so there may be some inaccuracies

jslade


Total Posts: 1148
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2017-03-15 00:36
Peerless is correct. It's like javascript, with types, and it runs on a concurrent VM without a real concurrency model. Testing sucks.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

jslade


Total Posts: 1148
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2017-03-21 20:54
It never ends:

https://algoriz.com

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

AB12358


Total Posts: 59
Joined: Apr 2014
 
Posted: 2017-03-22 00:45
That's the loosest use of the term 'AI' that I've seen to date.

radikal


Total Posts: 259
Joined: Dec 2012
 
Posted: 2017-03-23 01:50
Buy AAPL when tomorrow's AAPL closing price is higher than AAPL's current price.

There are no surprising facts, only models that are surprised by facts

svisstack


Total Posts: 316
Joined: Feb 2014
 
Posted: 2017-03-23 11:49
>> https://algoriz.com

i think new type of "business" people emerged: hype riders.

www.coinapi.io && www.cryptotick.com

HitmanH


Total Posts: 465
Joined: Apr 2005
 
Posted: 2017-03-23 11:56
Popping up all over the place... https://www.pit.ai

ryankennedyio


Total Posts: 13
Joined: Nov 2016
 
Posted: 2017-03-26 01:33
Have any of them ever posted a track record publicly?

Maggette


Total Posts: 1067
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2018-01-24 14:44
Hi,

after all the hype, any new insights or opinions on that NumerAI thing?

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Scotty


Total Posts: 726
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-01-24 16:25
Hi Maggette!

Gone quiet. They were are to do their own coin thing. Would also be interested in news.

“Whatever you do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius and power and magic in it.”

Maggette


Total Posts: 1067
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2018-08-07 09:09
So I guess we could wrap it up and bookmark numerai under "failed"? ES, chiral3, goldorak, jslade, hitman etc. were right.

I think we need an NP crypto currency/ smart contract project to monetarize the predictive power of senior NP members

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Scotty


Total Posts: 726
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-08-07 15:15
I heard they are still out there raising money at increasing valuations.

“Whatever you do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius and power and magic in it.”

Maggette


Total Posts: 1067
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2018-08-07 15:17
I don't get this world. I am getting old. How could a sane investor put money in that? I mean, to be fair, that also holds true for most funds too, but come on. I sthere so much money to be invested that people are that desperate?

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Scotty


Total Posts: 726
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-08-07 15:49
Yes, it is very strange.

ICOs, Nigerian scam letters, structured products from investment banks...crazy.

“Whatever you do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius and power and magic in it.”

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5068
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2018-08-07 16:22
Sentiment and hype in today’s world are great for a minority but suck for the majority. It reminds me of the early days of the poker craze. Didn’t take long for the more mature people to realize that they had an endless supply of idiots to scalp if they could just grind it out. Half these people felt like they were part of something big and special even though they walked away lighter in the wallet.

In the US west coast cannibis is a good nascent market rife with inefficiency (and opportunity, depending on how all the statutory shit works out). The dispensary end is fucked - reminds me of gas stations... they don’t make any money on gas (=weed) as the margins have been squeezed to shit, but they make money on coffee and food (=paraphernalia) - but the north end of the seed-to-sale chain, as well as the ledger systems, are highly inefficient. Nobody knows what they are doing. There’s a bunch of smart ex tech engineers and product developers that really don’t get the business, legal, and trade end of it all.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

doomanx


Total Posts: 17
Joined: Jul 2018
 
Posted: 2018-08-07 17:39
Seems to be pretty easy to get VC funding these days. Just need a sort of postmodernism generator for SV buzzwords (distributed ledger AI powered crowdsourced fintech startup) and a founder with a dangerously small amount of knowledge to run the Linkedin campaign. Go to any WeWork and you'll see a hundred of these.

sharpe_machine


Total Posts: 16
Joined: Feb 2018
 
Posted: 2018-08-09 01:49
Any info about Quantopian fund? They were down 3% in 2017 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/steven-a-cohen-andreessen-backed-diy-quant-fund-struggles-1510095947).

Adeka


Total Posts: 5
Joined: Oct 2012
 
Posted: 2018-10-04 21:54
The numerai team is launching 'decentralized data market place': https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-04/numerai-s-richard-craib-expands-gig-economy-to-quant-hedge-funds

Maggette


Total Posts: 1067
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2018-11-10 22:04
More on that
here

I admitt I am kind of intigued. But still see a lot of problems. Any opinions?

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Scotty


Total Posts: 726
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-11-11 03:54
I guess they are pivoting from a being a fund to becoming a blockchain prediction market with staking. The challenge for all new markets is getting critical mass on supply and demand sides.

QuantConnect are similarly trying to build a market place for alpha. Contributors offer trading strategies and investors can bid for them.

“Whatever you do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius and power and magic in it.”

quantie


Total Posts: 886
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-11-22 22:09
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/new-worldquant-fund-said-to-lose-9-5-in-october-trailing-index
Previous Thread :: Next Thread 
Page 3 of 4Goto to page: 1, 2, [3], 4 Prev Next