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Nonius
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Posted: 2016-07-12 11:34
South China Sea

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


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Posted: 2016-07-12 13:07
This is like how wars get begun innit.

A rising power getting crimped by the current big dog.

Hmmm 1871, 1914, 1931, 1941, 1949, etc.

When, not if. No one ever learns.

"The reputation of a firm is like a very delicate living organism which can easily be damaged and which has to be taken care of incessantly, being mainly a matter of human behaviour and human standards." - Warburg

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-07-12 13:28
yeah, I've a friend who's "sure" a war's going to start over that or Putin clobbering someone.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-07-15 23:19
and maybe an angry Turkey?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

ronin


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Posted: 2016-07-18 12:47
That story is so last week.

In 2016, geopolitical crises last 15 minutes. Take that, Andy Warholl.


"People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing every day" --Winnie The Pooh

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-07-18 21:30
well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....right when it was announced mofo.

on the geopolitical shit. I'm guessing at least Turkey ain't over. Angry

edit: ok, I guess you refer to Turkey.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

ronin


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Posted: 2016-07-18 22:51
> well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....


Touché.



"People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing every day" --Winnie The Pooh

EspressoLover


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Posted: 2016-07-26 00:21
Geopolitical pessimists have succesfully predicted 57 of the past 2 world wars.

Not saying this type of thing can't blow up into something bigger, but historical comparisons tend to suffer from availability bias. For every assassination in Sarajevo, there's a dozen Fashoda incidents. Successfully defused crises rarely feature prominently in the history books, so we tend to imagine contemporary events ending in the worst case scenario.

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-07-26 00:34
well, youse guys are actually preaching to the choir. I know someone who is being paid a lot to try to predict these things with machine learning. (nothing wrong with getting paid by the way, hehe). I remain sceptical. but it's fun to watch stuff unfold.

The one thing that bugs me about some of these people. They will often, ex-poste, tell you they predicted some unpredictable event. And, why aren't they clipping coupons in the sun, eh?

it reminds me a bit of a certain guy down in Madrid. won't mention names. he kept on saying US Treasuries going to blow up cuz of this, that and the other thing. Now, I ain't no macro guy, but I was thinking, ok bro. when it going to happen? ah, well, at some point, or something like that. meanwhile....

Chiral is Tyler Durden

chiral3
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Posted: 2016-07-26 01:49
I find that when I am wrong about events out-of-sample they are clearly outliers.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

rftx713


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Posted: 2016-07-26 02:19
Does anyone have a good framework for lookin at (geo)politics in the nuclear era? I need some education

goldorak


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Posted: 2016-07-26 06:28
War Games (1983)

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

rftx713


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Posted: 2016-07-27 06:06
i've read the reviews and it seems you could be entirely serious or entirely kidding... well played

goldorak


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Posted: 2016-07-27 08:29
Joshua's last sentence is the pretty good lesson to learn from the movie: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"

A precious piece of advice for financial markets too.

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

chiral3
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Posted: 2016-07-27 13:32
Mr Potato Head, Mr Potato Head... Back doors are not secrets.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

Nonius
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Posted: 2016-07-27 16:31
Trump or Hill mofos?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


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Posted: 2016-07-27 17:19
Hmm that question's Russian roulette with either 1 or 5 bullets in the chamber and not knowing if your participant is an optimist or suicidal...

"The reputation of a firm is like a very delicate living organism which can easily be damaged and which has to be taken care of incessantly, being mainly a matter of human behaviour and human standards." - Warburg

rftx713


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Posted: 2016-07-27 17:29
>The only winning move is not to play.

This was also the overarching theme of "The Wire" was it not?

Anyways, concerning my question about (geo)politics in the Nuclear Era.

After watching the Orion documentary that was posted in the documentary reco's thread, I was doing some reading on nuclear policy and history, and was surprised to find that Einstein had come to basically the same thought, admittedly put much more elegantly:

"The release of atomic power has changed everything except our way of thinking ... the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker."


goldorak


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Posted: 2016-07-27 21:16
> This was also the overarching theme of "The Wire" was it not?

I don't know "The Wire". It's a TV series and I got rid of TV 17 years ago. Cannot tell.

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

ronin


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Posted: 2016-07-28 11:38


Nuclear geopolitics is basically the same as gambler's ruin. As long as you have an absorbing point, all paths are eventually absorbed.

So there are no winning paths, and the only non-losing move is not to play.



"People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing every day" --Winnie The Pooh

rftx713


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Posted: 2016-07-28 18:32
ronin, I'm struggling to follow...

pj


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Posted: 2016-07-28 19:58
In the film WarGames, the supercomputer WOPR simulates all possible games of tic-tac-toe as a metaphor for all possible scenarios of a nuclear war, each of them ending in a nuclear holocaust (mutual assured destruction). The computer then exclaims, "A strange game; the only winning move is not to play."

I saw a dead fish on the pavement and thought 'what did you expect? There's no water 'round here stupid, shoulda stayed where it was wet.'

rftx713


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Posted: 2016-07-28 20:47
Thanks for elaborating pj - I get the basic premise of that. I'm trying to gain a better understanding of how decisions are actually being made these days given that (presumably) most world leaders and influencers are aware of MAD.

Maybe my thinking is better put as this: I think, prior to the Nuclear Era, Clausewitz was essentially correct in stating that war is politics by other means. I think this logic explains why we saw an increasing amount of political issues being worked out through war, until the 1940's. (Certainly if the frequency wasn't increasing, the magnitude seemed to be.)

Now, it's really not an extension of politics. It's doing away with politics altogether, possibly forever. It's abandoning every goal and every hope and dream of the future - defeating the point of engaging in politics at all. Sure, we can have armed skirmishes, or things like Russia/Crimea which are a bit more akin to larger skirmishes (compare the few proxy troops in the tiny sliver of land in the immediate vicinity to Russia's border to the Blitzkrieg - they have both happened in a single lifetime), and we can also have proxy protests/riots/skirmishes between the nuclear powers, but it does seem like war is not really a political option between great powers, as long as each side knows that war will lead, via MAD, to the end of politics anyways.

For what it's worth, this is why I'm befuddled as to why anybody actually feels threatened by conventional forces (such as China obtaining 1 "carrier"). If it comes to "our carriers versus their carriers," it seems to me that the carriers won't even be relevant.

So with war being mostly removed as a political endeavor between the great nations, how has this changed the landscape, how is this changing the way leaders approach and eventually solve (or don't solve) problems, etc. I know some of this is obvious but I would love to hear some input - I would also greatly appreciate anybody pointing out where I may be off on some of this.

(To tie the question back to the thread - how does ronin's example of the absorbing point in the Gambler's Ruin tie back to these questions specifically?)

chiral3
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Posted: 2016-07-28 21:47
Two great books in my library: The Evolution of Cooperation and the Strategy of Conflict.

Been a long time since I read them but, in one of them can't remember which), there's a story about generals analyzing progress at the Maginot Line noticed that ammo usage was increasing but kills were decreasing. The going theory was that, without words, people were able to evolve towards the golden rule. They all wanted to go home and see their families, so they started missing.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

Kitno


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Posted: 2016-07-28 22:35
When you have 20 screaming murderers running at you, you simply can't chose who to slot - information overload. At close quarters (<100m) bayonet charges work as the enemy (provided they are finite) are paralyzed by numbers.

There was a lot of studies about this in WW2, Korea and Vietnam with varying conclusions.

"The reputation of a firm is like a very delicate living organism which can easily be damaged and which has to be taken care of incessantly, being mainly a matter of human behaviour and human standards." - Warburg
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