Forums  > Trashcan  > I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.  
     
Page 1 of 2Goto to page: [1], 2 Next
Display using:  

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12787
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-12 11:34
South China Sea

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


Total Posts: 403
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-12 13:07
This is like how wars get begun innit.

A rising power getting crimped by the current big dog.

Hmmm 1871, 1914, 1931, 1941, 1949, etc.

When, not if. No one ever learns.

"Yeh, after that blow out I bid the bonds at 76 and you hit man...You're 77/81 now? Cool man...What? Do I care at 80? No mate... I'm 73 bid now...I'm sure you didn't just load up just for me...".

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12787
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-12 13:28
yeah, I've a friend who's "sure" a war's going to start over that or Putin clobbering someone.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12787
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-15 23:19
and maybe an angry Turkey?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

ronin


Total Posts: 515
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2016-07-18 12:47
That story is so last week.

In 2016, geopolitical crises last 15 minutes. Take that, Andy Warholl.


"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12787
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-18 21:30
well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....right when it was announced mofo.

on the geopolitical shit. I'm guessing at least Turkey ain't over. Angry

edit: ok, I guess you refer to Turkey.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

ronin


Total Posts: 515
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2016-07-18 22:51
> well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....


Touché.



"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 384
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2016-07-26 00:21
Geopolitical pessimists have succesfully predicted 57 of the past 2 world wars.

Not saying this type of thing can't blow up into something bigger, but historical comparisons tend to suffer from availability bias. For every assassination in Sarajevo, there's a dozen Fashoda incidents. Successfully defused crises rarely feature prominently in the history books, so we tend to imagine contemporary events ending in the worst case scenario.

Good questions outrank easy answers. -Paul Samuelson

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12787
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-26 00:34
well, youse guys are actually preaching to the choir. I know someone who is being paid a lot to try to predict these things with machine learning. (nothing wrong with getting paid by the way, hehe). I remain sceptical. but it's fun to watch stuff unfold.

The one thing that bugs me about some of these people. They will often, ex-poste, tell you they predicted some unpredictable event. And, why aren't they clipping coupons in the sun, eh?

it reminds me a bit of a certain guy down in Madrid. won't mention names. he kept on saying US Treasuries going to blow up cuz of this, that and the other thing. Now, I ain't no macro guy, but I was thinking, ok bro. when it going to happen? ah, well, at some point, or something like that. meanwhile....

Chiral is Tyler Durden

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5101
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-26 01:49
I find that when I am wrong about events out-of-sample they are clearly outliers.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

rftx713


Total Posts: 115
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-07-26 02:19
.

goldorak


Total Posts: 1065
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-26 06:28
War Games (1983)

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

rftx713


Total Posts: 115
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-07-27 06:06
.

goldorak


Total Posts: 1065
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-27 08:29
Joshua's last sentence is the pretty good lesson to learn from the movie: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"

A precious piece of advice for financial markets too.

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5101
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-27 13:32
Mr Potato Head, Mr Potato Head... Back doors are not secrets.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12787
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-27 16:31
Trump or Hill mofos?

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Kitno


Total Posts: 403
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-27 17:19
Hmm that question's Russian roulette with either 1 or 5 bullets in the chamber and not knowing if your participant is an optimist or suicidal...

"Yeh, after that blow out I bid the bonds at 76 and you hit man...You're 77/81 now? Cool man...What? Do I care at 80? No mate... I'm 73 bid now...I'm sure you didn't just load up just for me...".

rftx713


Total Posts: 115
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-07-27 17:29
.

goldorak


Total Posts: 1065
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-27 21:16
> This was also the overarching theme of "The Wire" was it not?

I don't know "The Wire". It's a TV series and I got rid of TV 17 years ago. Cannot tell.

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

ronin


Total Posts: 515
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2016-07-28 11:38


Nuclear geopolitics is basically the same as gambler's ruin. As long as you have an absorbing point, all paths are eventually absorbed.

So there are no winning paths, and the only non-losing move is not to play.



"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

rftx713


Total Posts: 115
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-07-28 18:32
.

pj


Total Posts: 3470
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-28 19:58
In the film WarGames, the supercomputer WOPR simulates all possible games of tic-tac-toe as a metaphor for all possible scenarios of a nuclear war, each of them ending in a nuclear holocaust (mutual assured destruction). The computer then exclaims, "A strange game; the only winning move is not to play."

I saw a dead fish on the pavement and thought 'what did you expect? There's no water 'round here stupid, shoulda stayed where it was wet.'

rftx713


Total Posts: 115
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-07-28 20:47
.

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5101
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-07-28 21:47
Two great books in my library: The Evolution of Cooperation and the Strategy of Conflict.

Been a long time since I read them but, in one of them can't remember which), there's a story about generals analyzing progress at the Maginot Line noticed that ammo usage was increasing but kills were decreasing. The going theory was that, without words, people were able to evolve towards the golden rule. They all wanted to go home and see their families, so they started missing.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

Kitno


Total Posts: 403
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2016-07-28 22:35
When you have 20 screaming murderers running at you, you simply can't chose who to slot - information overload. At close quarters (<100m) bayonet charges work as the enemy (provided they are finite) are paralyzed by numbers.

There was a lot of studies about this in WW2, Korea and Vietnam with varying conclusions.

"Yeh, after that blow out I bid the bonds at 76 and you hit man...You're 77/81 now? Cool man...What? Do I care at 80? No mate... I'm 73 bid now...I'm sure you didn't just load up just for me...".
Previous Thread :: Next Thread 
Page 1 of 2Goto to page: [1], 2 Next