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rftx713


Total Posts: 98
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 03:38
> usually pooked out by a PR department somewhere: why should I believe them on this?

I think this could be a lead in to a hopefully fruitful question - surely there must be good information somewhere. Where would that be?

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 997
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 04:06
@EL: I see geo-engineering as scientism rather than science. The problem is not just temperature, that's way too narrow a definition of the problem. Focusing on a single variable is no way to deal with a complex system. It leads to unintended consequences.

That would be pretty dumb, but given the people in charge and who gives the marching orders, you are right that it may very well happen.



"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 997
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 05:00
@Goldorak: I sometimes hear "It can't be true because it would be too terrible". That's cognitive dissonance at work. It is either happening or not mainly because of physics, and maybe a bit because of our actions. The consequences have nothing to do with it.

Look, even if we are in the middle of the 6th mass extinction event and 90% of life on earth is wiped out, that leaves 700 million humans. Let's just try to be in it, shall we. I don't think it's going to be that bad though Wink

The hard thing to do is to go beyond the "Global warming is real / it'a a disaster" line, and coldly analyse what may be the consequences in order to get out of the way and adapt.

"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 997
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 05:05
@Cheng and @Granchio: Tks, will check out GMO and Imperial.

"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 997
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 07:51
@Katastrofa: Yup, pretty much what you said.

But there are many things you can do, e.g. investing in hydroponics. If we lose a lot of arable land, that should work out ok. And it's not just a dumb doomsday bet, since if somehow things work out and population increases you'd be pretty happy too.

"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 997
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 08:01
@jslade: The horizon is about 20 years (so that rules out financial gimmickry such as ETFs or shorting cat bonds BTW). Also, you don't need to wait for the actual thing to happen, but just for financial markets to start discounting the possibility. At the moment, I don't think any of this risk is priced in so it's all pretty much free options.

Not so sure about land in Siberia though. Methane could make it quite inhospitable.




"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

willis


Total Posts: 21
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 13:03
@NeroTulip, @jslade

I don't have good references, but would be interested.
I've thought about this before too - time horizon is probably long, so necessitates a stable government, and the off chance shorter term disasters scenarios would probably mean imminent domain / confiscation of property, so when you win, you lose.

Other things:

re: Siberia / Russian Far East
There are tons of Chinese living over the border - it's possible that on a 50-100 year time horizon, it's parts of it it becomes China (again-ish).

re: Canada
Ticks a lot of boxes, but there's been a lot of buying (a la GMO, the fund) over the past several years.

jslade


Total Posts: 1097
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 21:31
20 year timescale, must have stable government: buy Swiss real estate. If you really think there is some eco-disaster coming in 20 years, mountains and glaciers and reasonably productive (and government protected) agriculture should be helpful.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

katastrofa


Total Posts: 362
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2016-11-28 22:33
I think it can only work for you if you're Swiss. Some time ago, some European Jews trusted the Swiss with their gold and it didn't end too well for them.

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 997
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2016-12-02 10:15
If anyone is interested in some background, here are US national security risks

"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

NeroTulip


Total Posts: 997
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2016-12-02 10:22
Also

Attached File: climate change.pdf

Attached File: what we know.pdf

"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

Cheng


Total Posts: 2838
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2016-12-02 11:52
Re Swiss RE: afaik there are some limitations in place barring foreigners from buying Swiss RE... so you would need a straw man which brings a whole new set of issues.

"He's man, he's a kid / Wanna bang with you / Headbanging man" (Grave Digger, Headbanging Man)

rod


Total Posts: 375
Joined: Nov 2006
 
Posted: 2016-12-02 12:04
I like reading JASON reports. A bit dated, but still interesting:

Issues in Predictability [pdf]
JSR-90-320, December 1991
Abstract: "Since the beginning of the greenhouse debate, policy makers have demanded from the scientific community predictions of future climate in limited geographical areas and limited time intervals. Current climate models clearly do not have such capabilities, as is demonstrated by large disagreements among the models of continental size regions. Largely lost in the debate are fundamental questions such as: What is meant by predictability? What can be predicted and over what time and length scale? What errors can be expected from predictions? This report explores some of the issues by analyzing toy models of climate and existing data sets of global annual average surface air temperature."

jslade


Total Posts: 1097
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2016-12-03 01:55
I mean, if you really believe this is a serious problem which will be accompanied by social unrest, the Chinese invading Siberia and everything, becoming a Swiss national and buying some farmland seems like a relatively simple long term project. If you're wrong, the chocolate is good and the mountains are nice to look at. I can't think of anyplace more likely to remain civilized in the event of ecological apocalypse. Maybe Island of Man.



"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

goldorak


Total Posts: 1000
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2016-12-03 11:38
@jslade > 20 year timescale, must have stable government: buy Swiss real estate.

You are insane and unaware of the problematic here. Cool

Swiss real estate prices are a gigantic bubble fueled by a stupid political decision of the mid 90s: allowing people to take out ALL of their private pension assets to buy real estate. This was the only way for real estate lobbies to propel up the market after the disaster of the early 90s (Inflation adjusted, prices just reached now the prices of the early 90s to give you an idea of the gigantic bubble of the 80s... 25 years drawdown). Just add the ability to finance a mortgage below 2% for the next 20 years, and the disaster is even worse.

Guess what? All these people will have to sell to finance their retirement... and it does not look like young people are numerous and rich out there.

Short real estate in low altitude ski resort with limited infrastructure would be my advice. How to do that is still a question though. The ones with advanced infrastructure could actually benefit from higher average temperatures, with an incentive for older people to escape from overcrowded cities.



If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12702
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2016-12-04 15:57
Whoa I go live in a cave for a while and this place gets all political and shit.

Yes Nero, u can buy hurricane insurance in Florida even if u don't have jack shit to do with Florida.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

tabris


Total Posts: 1247
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2016-12-09 10:37
Or maybe you can see if you can buy insurance on this fund?

Cool future

Dilbert: Why does it seem as though I am the only honest guy on earth? Dogbert: Your type tends not to reproduce.
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