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ETFsRfun


Total Posts: 1
Joined: May 2017
 
Posted: 2017-05-19 23:50
How would you use odds to bet a basket of horses tomorrow? Business Insider had an interesting article that got me to thinking - there has to be a way to play odds as a "portfolio" and hopefully minimizing risk. Would love to hear any thoughts.

jslade


Total Posts: 1093
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2017-05-22 23:03
Have a look at Steve Skienna's book on Jai Alai betting.

https://www3.cs.stonybrook.edu/~skiena/jaialai/

Thorp and Shannon also bought favorites at race day end; the pari-mutuel system undervalues those if there isn't a lot of sophisticated betting going on (aka punters trying to make their money back on a long shot).

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

TonyC
Nuclear Energy Trader

Total Posts: 1245
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2017-05-27 10:01
Bill Ziemba's "Dr Z's Beat the Race Track" is a pretty good intro.

I used to go to the track and use an old atari handheld to implement Ziemba's calcs. My impression is, that like everything else, the proliferation of electronic markets has reduced the edge, and the game is no longer to find cheap "place" or "show" bets; but to find cheap exotic/combo/parlay bets

flaneur/boulevardier/remittance man/energy trader

Peerless


Total Posts: 108
Joined: Aug 2012
 
Posted: 2017-05-30 12:17
Not my work and I have not dived into it but I figure it could be interesting (code and explanation and results available).

https://github.com/dominicplouffe/HorseRacingPrediction

rod


Total Posts: 375
Joined: Nov 2006
 
Posted: 2017-05-30 22:48
Take a look at the following paper and the references therein.

Richard Thaler and William T. Ziemba, Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1988, vol. 2, issue 2, pages 161-74.

Cheng


Total Posts: 2836
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2017-05-31 14:36
The Perfect Bet gives a lot of colour and also explains why only the pros are doing race betting these days.

"He's man, he's a kid / Wanna bang with you / Headbanging man" (Grave Digger, Headbanging Man)

contango_and_cash


Total Posts: 67
Joined: Sep 2015
 
Posted: 2017-06-02 21:29
@rod - do you know which papers they are referring to in footnote 1?

rod


Total Posts: 375
Joined: Nov 2006
 
Posted: 2017-06-02 21:34
@contango_and_cash, unfortunately, I do not know.
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