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finanzmaster


Total Posts: 127
Joined: Feb 2011
 
Posted: 2017-11-11 19:05
In Germany private investors tended to life insurances and deposits but since the Supermario killed interest rate in EU-Zone, there are lot of ETF providers and robo-advisors that repeat the mantra: in the long term your investment in stocks or an index ETF will grow.
Though for a one-time investment it is generally true (however, not always, recall NIKKEI), it is far away from truth for a savings plan.
For instance, even if you run your savings plan for 30 years and assume annually 6% expected return and 20% volatility (very optimistic, indeed), you will make losses in ca. 15% of scenarios. And if your saving plan lasts "only" 10 years, the number of scenarios with losses will be about 30%! Try to simulate your savings plan yourself!

https://letyourmoneygrow.com/2017/11/08/savings-plan-scenario-simulator/

www.yetanotherquant.com - Knowledge rather than Hope: A Book for Retail Investors and Mathematical Finance Students
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