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flex_lev


Total Posts: 2
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-03-28 21:33
Do some people here have experience generating alpha (positive return) consistently out of Casino Games (other than the Zero Sum Games : Poker...) or Gambling Websites?

tradeking


Total Posts: 15
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2018-03-30 16:55
Yes. Lots of inefficiencies to be found on some betting platforms.

AB12358


Total Posts: 52
Joined: Apr 2014
 
Posted: 2018-03-31 03:32
I know they put a lot of effort in to detecting and excluding arbitrageurs and the like on sports betting websites.

Given that, is it worth the effort to attempt to exploit those inefficiencies?

tradeking


Total Posts: 15
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2018-03-31 04:41
> Given that, is it worth the effort to attempt to exploit those inefficiencies?

As with any niche market, the alpha is probably not big enough for the big shops to bother with, but that is precisely why the edges are there. Even relatively simple strategies could work in these markets.

flex_lev


Total Posts: 2
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-04-12 19:22
How much money can you make out of it?

TonyC
Nuclear Energy Trader

Total Posts: 1257
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-01 05:14
the problem is, if they see that you are a consistent winner, or if tge suspect you are arbitraging them by putting on a bet on their website and laying it off on someone else's website ... they will eventually refuse your bets and drop you as a customer

N.B. this isn't necessarily true for certain forms of gambling that involve pari Mutual stakes such as horse racing. There the house is merely takiig $0.18 out of every dollar and redistributing the remaining $0.72 to the people that bet ... so they're happy to take your bets.

flaneur/boulevardier/remittance man/energy trader

contango_and_cash


Total Posts: 83
Joined: Sep 2015
 
Posted: 2018-05-01 18:53
somewhat tangential, but a fun read:

https://www.amazon.com/Calculated-Bets-Outlooks-Skiena-ebook/dp/B004IASVJK

nikol


Total Posts: 439
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2018-05-03 22:42
https://www.deepstack.ai/

https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01724

katastrofa


Total Posts: 420
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2018-05-03 23:07
I know one of the authors :)

jslade


Total Posts: 1123
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2018-05-05 00:11
On a similar topic, I had been curious about these guys for years:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

katastrofa


Total Posts: 420
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2018-05-05 09:54
It's blood money. Phuck him.

jslade


Total Posts: 1123
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2018-05-07 19:46
Can you elaborate Katastrofa? I had read about one of those two groups described here in Poundstone's book on Kelly betting; seemed interesting.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

katastrofa


Total Posts: 420
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2018-05-10 17:21
Is horse racing cruel?

goldorak


Total Posts: 1028
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-10 20:37
Who cares about horses dying ? City people..

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

katastrofa


Total Posts: 420
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2018-05-10 23:46
Who doesn't? Assholes.

(I lived in the countryside and worked with horses, btw.)

TonyC
Nuclear Energy Trader

Total Posts: 1257
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 03:20
there used to be millions of American buffalo. Then we ate them. And now we don't eat them. And now, because we eat beef, there are millions and millions of cattle and only about a thousand American buffalo.

if it weren't for racing, dressage, jumping, and hunting, the population of horses would be about the same as the population of American buffalo.

flaneur/boulevardier/remittance man/energy trader

TonyC
Nuclear Energy Trader

Total Posts: 1257
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 03:22
oh wait Rodeo ... I forgot Rodeo

flaneur/boulevardier/remittance man/energy trader

Strange


Total Posts: 1377
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 04:34
" there used to be millions of American buffalo. Then we ate them. And now we don't eat them. And now, because we eat beef, there are millions and millions of cattle and only about a thousand American buffalo.

if it weren't for racing, dressage, jumping, and hunting, the population of horses would be about the same as the population of American buffalo."

Humans seem to be pretty good at eating, shitting and destroying things. Maybe this planet would have been better off without us.

It's buy futures, sell futures, when there is no future!

katastrofa


Total Posts: 420
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 09:45
Dressage is OK. It doesn't kill horses.

AB12358


Total Posts: 52
Joined: Apr 2014
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 10:13
Speaking of gambling and blood sport, after reading Skiena's Jai Alai book I did some youtubing to see what it was all about.

Some pretty spectacular injuries there.

katastrofa


Total Posts: 420
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 12:05
But only willing participants...

goldorak


Total Posts: 1028
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 16:46
No one cares about horses. Not even good for lasagna.

I see that stupid animals like horses and wanna be frustrated hedge fund manager like katastrofa get on well together. Not even surprised.

How come your "I lived in the countryside" sounds to me very much like "I have a black friend" in racist people speech?



If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

katastrofa


Total Posts: 420
Joined: Jul 2008
 
Posted: 2018-05-11 22:44
Because you fall easily for superficial similarities?

I dunno, being a specieist you are close to being a racist, so you probably have problems with recognising what is and what is not racism...

TonyC
Nuclear Energy Trader

Total Posts: 1257
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-12 09:46

"No one cares about horses. Not even good for lasagna."

west of the Charles, at The Faculty Club of the Saltwater School of Economics, it was always considered adventuresome to eat horse steak. I always found it very very overly sweet and slightly metallic. It was only years later that it was explained to me that I was tasting the high glucose and ferrous residue of the higher mitochondrial density of horse vs beef.

one would have thought that metallic sweetness would have been obvious in lasagna. ...
... but a somewhat handicapped and insensitive palette, well, that's the British for you


flaneur/boulevardier/remittance man/energy trader

Strange


Total Posts: 1377
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-05-12 16:41
> I always found it very very overly sweet and slightly metallic.

”I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed is at a year old a most delicious, nourishing, and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled ...”

It's buy futures, sell futures, when there is no future!
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