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Jurassic


Total Posts: 136
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-06-23 10:37
What do you guys think will be the next tech boom?

The dotcom boom was a boom for making websites (up to 2001) and I suppose there has been a boom for apps like Uber, Whatsapp at the moment....


... What do you think will be the technology that creates a boom?

nikol


Total Posts: 495
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2018-06-24 17:27
Facilitation of P2P:
- marketplaces (Alibaba, Uber, Airbnb...)
- distributed register
AI.

Tradenator


Total Posts: 1592
Joined: Sep 2006
 
Posted: 2018-06-25 21:57
internet of things - it's game on right now

Jurassic


Total Posts: 136
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-06-25 22:46
IoT is an interesting one as I cant see any development in that space right now

AB12358


Total Posts: 58
Joined: Apr 2014
 
Posted: 2018-06-26 09:25
There's one just beginning in aerospace, in my opinion. The weight of (ie. FAA) regulation hasn't allowed disruption by small players, and the large players are just now starting to move toward things like 'beyond line of sight' drone flight, and collective UAS control.

The application of autonomous UAS to infrastructure inspection, agriculture, and mineral exploration will not directly have a huge impact (outside of those industries, of course). It will be a major factor going forward in the amount of hype and investment in the use of autonomous systems for such things as shipping, and eventually passengers.


There are not enough real world uses (aside from dodging falling bolivar) for proof of work supported public blockchains to cause a real boom.

In terms of P2P business models, I'm not sure. They profit by dodging regulation in what's become a fairly predictable way. How much longer can that last?

I started out in industrial automation and I still can't see widespread use cases for IoT beyond factory and warehouse kind of stuff. Certainly nothing in the home, unless you count surveillance. Having said that... there are a few open problems pertaining to routing that could seriously multiply the usefulness of IoT to various industries, but I'm not holding my breath for the solution of those.

Avenger


Total Posts: 11
Joined: Jun 2018
 
Posted: 2018-06-26 10:50
I think the medical sector has a lot of potential growth. But im 19, what do i know :)

jslade


Total Posts: 1134
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2018-06-28 16:55
I think this is an ill-posed question.

The things people are investing in, the things people make money on, and the technologies which make a boom possible are all different things.

Example: you could have invested in cutting edge search technology in the 90s by investing in DEC, which got hamstringed by spook contracts and was eventually bought out by a crappy laptop maker that no longer exists. Google made money on advertising (still pretty much all they make money on). I don't remember what idiots were investing in back then; probably semantic web nonsense.

If you asked me what to invest in which I expect will make money: clones of useful existing .com services for Latin America. Same process has already mostly unfolded in China.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Jurassic


Total Posts: 136
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 14:59
> I think this an ill-posed question.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble#Legacy

"A friend of mine has a great line. He says 'Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance'. Meaning that you need some of this mania to cause investors to open up their pocketbooks and finance the building of the railroads or the automobile or aerospace industry or whatever. And in this case, much of the capital invested was lost, but also much of it was invested in a very high throughput backbone for the Internet, and lots of software that works, and databases and server structure. All that stuff has allowed what we have today, which has changed all our lives... that's what all this speculative mania built".[42]

jslade


Total Posts: 1134
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 16:55
If you want to know what the irrational exuberance is in, go look at Hacker News or Tech Crunch. Blockchain, self driving cars, IoT and "AI" are all still big, though I forecast AI winter soon, and self driving apocalypse. Gartner's hype curve can help you with the time series aspects of things.

That quote is horse shit, FWIIW. Most of what he describes was funded not by irrational exuberance, but by government central planning.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

deeds


Total Posts: 403
Joined: Dec 2008
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 19:41
@jslade, i may be wrong, but thinking about Tim Wu's writing, i think that both irrational exuberance and government central planning have played important roles in development, particularly in network-y industries.

Start private, public intervention, privatize....rinse, repeat.

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 331
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 20:11
Self-driving cars are the wildcard. It's the only tech on the horizon that has a realistic chance of having a meaningful economic impact. For all the hype surrounding apps and mobile and social networking, nothing has actually had any real affect on total factor productivity since email and spreadsheets.

Information technology did substantially grow productivity in the 90s, at almost the same rate as the first and second industrial revolutions. Unfortunately it proved much shorter lived than its antecedents. After the initial wave of wide-scale PC adoption, we've returned to pre-computer productivity trends. The info-tech industry is basically just making new toys rather than new tools at this point.

Self-driving cars could really buck this trend. In the US at least 5% of the labor force could be put out of a job. Not just truck drivers, deliverymen and bus drivers. It also means less auto manufacturing (most people can dispense with owning a full time car), fewer body shops and mechanics (less accidents), fewer ER docs/nurses (less car accidents), a much smaller car insurance industry, less road construction (less traffic), and even less housing construction (people can just move further away, and sleep during their commute).

That being said, I've lately heard a lot of skepticism from insiders about whether the tech is anywhere on the horizon. It might be a lot like how speech recognition seemed deceptively close in the 1980s. It was easy to get the accuracy from 0% to 95%. The threshold for usability is 99%, so it seemed like success was imminent. But the last mile ended up being way harder than prior work.

Good questions outrank easy answers. -Paul Samuelson

Maggette


Total Posts: 1052
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 20:34
I second jslade on the AI winter. I've been part of a couple highly disfunctional big data/ai/machine learning projects at big companies and have lots of connections that tell me familiar stories.

It's not that the ML part is not working at all...it's just that there are crazy to fradulent claims on power point presentations and hence "C" types have absolutely crazy expectations on what ML + data can deliver.

And hence the projects most of the time do not deliver to the point that they are realy adding substantial comercial value to the existing solutions.

"C" types are very binary...and hence I think they will flip the switch soon and label everything that has to do with machine learning as evil and academic nonsense.

Disclaimer: this is obviously not true for many things in robotics and control theory related applications of AI that work incredibly well.



Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Jurassic


Total Posts: 136
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 20:53
> Unfortunately it proved much shorter lived than its antecedents.

@ExpressoLover It is not still going? Automation everywhere is increasing (for example supermarket self service) and computing power has only got really cheap in the last 5 years

goldorak


Total Posts: 1046
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 21:48
AI winter? Who, with a minimum experience of the topic, would have bought in the ML/AI hype in the first place anyway?

If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space.

Maggette


Total Posts: 1052
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 22:34
Management of large companies? VC type idiots?

From what I read from you in other threads you are quite independent..which is great for you.

If you are not an independent researcher , for example a "consultant" or an academic you need someone who pays you for doing fun stuff. If that moneyflow stops a lot of stupid stuff stops for the right reasons. But some good stuff is also canceled.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 495
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 23:14
@Avenger
> I think the medical sector has a lot of potential growth. But im 19, what do i know

The space of possibilities is limited by imagination of those who are 19...

Maggette


Total Posts: 1052
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2018-06-29 23:21
...and don't know about the crazy regulation hurdles in healthcare ;)

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 495
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2018-06-30 01:44
To the point )))

jslade


Total Posts: 1134
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2018-07-05 22:48
goldorak: "Who, with a minimum experience of the topic, would have bought in the ML/AI hype in the first place anyway?"

I trace it back to the "DeepMind" acquisition by Google. Basically a textbook reinforcement learning example (playing atari games) that looked kewul, especially to over-wealthy Gen-X people in bizdev who played atari games as children. Once that happened, VCs had to be in on the game. Once VCs got in on the game, the hype bandwagon took on a life of its own.

I think it's fair that ML is more accessible to the masses at least, but the whole AI apocalypse thing is just a joke. ML replaces large teams of statisticians, not really anything else.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Strange


Total Posts: 1434
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2018-07-06 03:31
@jslade, I heard that Facebook is building a block-chain based AI system and want to recruit people like you!

I don't interest myself in 'why?'. I think more often in terms of 'when?'...sometimes 'where?'. And always how much?'

gax


Total Posts: 17
Joined: Apr 2011
 
Posted: 2018-07-06 15:40
I think if they get homomorphic encryption working in a practical sense that may have the potential to be a pretty big break through.

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5060
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2018-07-06 15:50
Any thoughts on what the Durov bros are working on?

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

Jurassic


Total Posts: 136
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-07-31 17:30
@chiral3 looks like making cryptos

anyone got any thoughts on quantum computing? seems like it be revolutionary in medicine

Rashomon


Total Posts: 182
Joined: Mar 2011
 
Posted: 2018-08-05 00:55
jslade: I remember a blog post by a neuroscientist from around that time, complaining that Zuckerberg was given a bigger room (and more people attended) than any of the actual scientists, at some conference.

Jurassic


Total Posts: 136
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-08-15 18:47
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-07/quantum-computers-today-aren-t-very-useful-that-could-change
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