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deeds


Total Posts: 512
Joined: Dec 2008
 
Posted: 2021-01-05 14:33

So much unspoken about timing and the golden (potentially rocky) path of realization.

'Could reach' ?= 'is worth'.

future value, present value...i guess at 0%, no difference from discounting, but maybe some scenario probability action to consider (particularly for BTC)?





nikol


Total Posts: 1345
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2021-01-05 15:29
Agree. But "btc is ponzi" has the same predictive power.
What matters is the source of messages.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Its Grisha


Total Posts: 74
Joined: Nov 2019
 
Posted: 2021-01-22 20:12
Anyone heard of a deal that looks like a credit default swap on offshore crypto derivatives exchanges? If only trading on a couple, the risk of exchange getting hacked (from inside or outside) feels higher than the risk of ruin for the strategy itself.

Asked a couple friends to make me a market but no luck :)

"Nothing is more dangerous to the adventurous spirit within a man than a secure future."

nikol


Total Posts: 1345
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2021-01-22 22:20
Given the very "cloudy" background around hacking of those exchanges (e.g. MtGox, OKEx etc) and subsequent lousy investigations, the obvious strategy for buyer is to buy insurance and to buy hackers. Protection sellers dont want to get into this. I doubt if you find any.
Manage the risk through diversification.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Its Grisha


Total Posts: 74
Joined: Nov 2019
 
Posted: 2021-01-22 23:27
That's fair, my first instinct is to say that even this risk can be priced into a higher premium. But then maybe premiums get so high that they are adversely selected only by those with insider knowledge, and never casual protection seekers. Guess the only way to get it done would be with a close associate who knows you won't play the hacker side.

"Nothing is more dangerous to the adventurous spirit within a man than a secure future."

deeds


Total Posts: 512
Joined: Dec 2008
 
Posted: 2021-01-23 01:48

The scaling of hacking risk with increased price seems an interesting dynamic


nikol


Total Posts: 1345
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2021-02-12 16:19
@ItsGrisha

Came across accidentally. Appears to be growing sector.

https://www.riskwolf.com/

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Patrik
Founding Member

Total Posts: 1374
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2021-02-16 14:05
there are many experiments going on with insurance - e.g. https://nexusmutual.io/

there are further ideas of token incentivized contracted auditors - trying to alter the incentive dynamics and so forth. lots of complexity, pretty interesting to see if any successful models emerge.

Capital Structure Demolition LLC Radiation

svisstack


Total Posts: 366
Joined: Feb 2014
 
Posted: 2021-02-17 08:27
of course, the premium will be different based on the perceived default probability of the exchange; this exists even on the spot symbols where you have a lower price on lower quality exchanges because there is a risk that you could not withdraw some day.

First Commander of the USS Enterprise

jslade


Total Posts: 1243
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2021-02-19 14:06
There are defi options. Of course then you have to trust the defi exchange rather than the central exchange. Different kind of trust.

For example, get a load of this block diagram:
https://docs.makerdao.com/

https://gblobscdn.gitbook.com/assets%2F-LtJ1VeNJVW-jiKH0xoL%2F-LtJ1b6zvgLW87LnLdVh%2F-LtJ2Iehm2lpltGDIYPb%2FMCD%20System%202.0.png?alt=media&token=158d510d-7db2-40ee-ad88-9fada900b0b8

If stuff moves towards defi exchanges, your jobs are going to be very different. Involving detailed bytecode analysis on a retard VM designed by an uneducated 19 year old with a fondness for psychedelic mushrooms.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

nikol


Total Posts: 1345
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2021-02-19 15:04
@jslade

Do I understand correctly that MCD is a state machine, which helps processing e-contracts?
I hope, it does not have stale states.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)
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