deeds
|
|
| Total Posts: 512 |
| Joined: Dec 2008 |
| |
|
So much unspoken about timing and the golden (potentially rocky) path of realization.
'Could reach' ?= 'is worth'.
future value, present value...i guess at 0%, no difference from discounting, but maybe some scenario probability action to consider (particularly for BTC)?
|
|
|
|
 |
nikol
|
|
| Total Posts: 1345 |
| Joined: Jun 2005 |
| |
|
Agree. But "btc is ponzi" has the same predictive power.
What matters is the source of messages. |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
|
 |
|
Anyone heard of a deal that looks like a credit default swap on offshore crypto derivatives exchanges? If only trading on a couple, the risk of exchange getting hacked (from inside or outside) feels higher than the risk of ruin for the strategy itself.
Asked a couple friends to make me a market but no luck :) |
"Nothing is more dangerous to the adventurous spirit within a man than a secure future." |
|
|
|
nikol
|
|
| Total Posts: 1345 |
| Joined: Jun 2005 |
| |
|
Given the very "cloudy" background around hacking of those exchanges (e.g. MtGox, OKEx etc) and subsequent lousy investigations, the obvious strategy for buyer is to buy insurance and to buy hackers. Protection sellers dont want to get into this. I doubt if you find any.
Manage the risk through diversification.
|
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
|
|
|
| That's fair, my first instinct is to say that even this risk can be priced into a higher premium. But then maybe premiums get so high that they are adversely selected only by those with insider knowledge, and never casual protection seekers. Guess the only way to get it done would be with a close associate who knows you won't play the hacker side. |
"Nothing is more dangerous to the adventurous spirit within a man than a secure future." |
|
|
|
deeds
|
|
| Total Posts: 512 |
| Joined: Dec 2008 |
| |
|
The scaling of hacking risk with increased price seems an interesting dynamic
|
|
|
|
nikol
|
|
| Total Posts: 1345 |
| Joined: Jun 2005 |
| |
|
@ItsGrisha
Came across accidentally. Appears to be growing sector.
https://www.riskwolf.com/ |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
|
|
|
Patrik
|
| Founding Member |
| Total Posts: 1374 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
| |
|
there are many experiments going on with insurance - e.g. https://nexusmutual.io/
there are further ideas of token incentivized contracted auditors - trying to alter the incentive dynamics and so forth. lots of complexity, pretty interesting to see if any successful models emerge. |
Capital Structure Demolition LLC  |
|
|
|
| of course, the premium will be different based on the perceived default probability of the exchange; this exists even on the spot symbols where you have a lower price on lower quality exchanges because there is a risk that you could not withdraw some day. |
First Commander of the USS Enterprise |
|
|
|
jslade
|
|
| Total Posts: 1243 |
| Joined: Feb 2007 |
| |
|
There are defi options. Of course then you have to trust the defi exchange rather than the central exchange. Different kind of trust.
For example, get a load of this block diagram:
https://docs.makerdao.com/
https://gblobscdn.gitbook.com/assets%2F-LtJ1VeNJVW-jiKH0xoL%2F-LtJ1b6zvgLW87LnLdVh%2F-LtJ2Iehm2lpltGDIYPb%2FMCD%20System%202.0.png?alt=media&token=158d510d-7db2-40ee-ad88-9fada900b0b8
If stuff moves towards defi exchanges, your jobs are going to be very different. Involving detailed bytecode analysis on a retard VM designed by an uneducated 19 year old with a fondness for psychedelic mushrooms. |
"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious." |
|
|
nikol
|
|
| Total Posts: 1345 |
| Joined: Jun 2005 |
| |
|
@jslade
Do I understand correctly that MCD is a state machine, which helps processing e-contracts?
I hope, it does not have stale states. |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
|
|
|
