Nonius
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Kitno
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This is like how wars get begun innit.
A rising power getting crimped by the current big dog.
Hmmm 1871, 1914, 1931, 1941, 1949, etc.
When, not if. No one ever learns. |
It's just about taking every single dollar...and more. |
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Nonius
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| Founding MemberNonius Unbound |
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| yeah, I've a friend who's "sure" a war's going to start over that or Putin clobbering someone. |
Chiral is Tyler Durden |
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Nonius
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| Founding MemberNonius Unbound |
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| and maybe an angry Turkey? |
Chiral is Tyler Durden |
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ronin
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That story is so last week.
In 2016, geopolitical crises last 15 minutes. Take that, Andy Warholl.
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"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur |
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Nonius
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| Founding MemberNonius Unbound |
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well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....right when it was announced mofo.
on the geopolitical shit. I'm guessing at least Turkey ain't over. 
edit: ok, I guess you refer to Turkey. |
Chiral is Tyler Durden |
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ronin
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> well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....
Touché.
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"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur |
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Geopolitical pessimists have succesfully predicted 57 of the past 2 world wars.
Not saying this type of thing can't blow up into something bigger, but historical comparisons tend to suffer from availability bias. For every assassination in Sarajevo, there's a dozen Fashoda incidents. Successfully defused crises rarely feature prominently in the history books, so we tend to imagine contemporary events ending in the worst case scenario. |
Good questions outrank easy answers.
-Paul Samuelson |
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Nonius
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| Founding MemberNonius Unbound |
| Total Posts: 12808 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
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well, youse guys are actually preaching to the choir. I know someone who is being paid a lot to try to predict these things with machine learning. (nothing wrong with getting paid by the way, hehe). I remain sceptical. but it's fun to watch stuff unfold.
The one thing that bugs me about some of these people. They will often, ex-poste, tell you they predicted some unpredictable event. And, why aren't they clipping coupons in the sun, eh?
it reminds me a bit of a certain guy down in Madrid. won't mention names. he kept on saying US Treasuries going to blow up cuz of this, that and the other thing. Now, I ain't no macro guy, but I was thinking, ok bro. when it going to happen? ah, well, at some point, or something like that. meanwhile.... |
Chiral is Tyler Durden |
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chiral3
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| I find that when I am wrong about events out-of-sample they are clearly outliers. |
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй! |
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rftx713
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goldorak
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| War Games (1983) |
If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space. |
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rftx713
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goldorak
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Joshua's last sentence is the pretty good lesson to learn from the movie: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"
A precious piece of advice for financial markets too.
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If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space. |
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chiral3
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| Mr Potato Head, Mr Potato Head... Back doors are not secrets. |
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй! |
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Nonius
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| Founding MemberNonius Unbound |
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| Trump or Hill mofos? |
Chiral is Tyler Durden |
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Kitno
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| Hmm that question's Russian roulette with either 1 or 5 bullets in the chamber and not knowing if your participant is an optimist or suicidal... |
It's just about taking every single dollar...and more. |
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rftx713
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goldorak
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> This was also the overarching theme of "The Wire" was it not?
I don't know "The Wire". It's a TV series and I got rid of TV 17 years ago. Cannot tell.
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If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space. |
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ronin
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Nuclear geopolitics is basically the same as gambler's ruin. As long as you have an absorbing point, all paths are eventually absorbed.
So there are no winning paths, and the only non-losing move is not to play.
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"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur |
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rftx713
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pj
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| In the film WarGames, the supercomputer WOPR simulates all possible games of tic-tac-toe as a metaphor for all possible scenarios of a nuclear war, each of them ending in a nuclear holocaust (mutual assured destruction). The computer then exclaims, "A strange game; the only winning move is not to play." |
I saw a dead fish on the pavement and thought 'what did you expect?
There's no water 'round here stupid, shoulda stayed where it was wet.'
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rftx713
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chiral3
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Two great books in my library: The Evolution of Cooperation and the Strategy of Conflict.
Been a long time since I read them but, in one of them can't remember which), there's a story about generals analyzing progress at the Maginot Line noticed that ammo usage was increasing but kills were decreasing. The going theory was that, without words, people were able to evolve towards the golden rule. They all wanted to go home and see their families, so they started missing. |
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй! |
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Kitno
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When you have 20 screaming murderers running at you, you simply can't chose who to slot - information overload. At close quarters (<100m) bayonet charges work as the enemy (provided they are finite) are paralyzed by numbers.
There was a lot of studies about this in WW2, Korea and Vietnam with varying conclusions. |
It's just about taking every single dollar...and more. |
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