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NeroTulip


Total Posts: 1061
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2020-02-15 15:46
I can’t believe we haven’t started sharing our amateur epidemiologist takes on this! If we’re going to do global warming, we might as well do this.

Here are a few thoughts.

"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

Kitno


Total Posts: 460
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-15 19:04
I was waiting for someone to post this.

The first problem is accuracy of the numbers from China.
1. Political reasons to hide reality
2. Definitions of illness vs posting numbers of ill
3. Inability to cite genuine reality through lack of accurate test kits
4. Inability for hospitals to treat/assess the ill through lack of capacity.

I for one think this is going to be a pandemic - mostly due to the ability for human transmission while asymptomatic. A proper pandemic every few hundred years used to be standard fayre...

70%+ alcohol or high temperature (IIRC >53C over 30 min) kills the virus.

I read a lot of papers on SARS & MERS and from those corona virus cousins and antiviral HIV drugs and Tamiflu in conuntion worked well to limit the symptoms.

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

Maggette


Total Posts: 1211
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2020-02-16 17:56
I find it interesting that China gets a lot of flak how they handle the situation...
I am not even sure that a western country, that isn't a rather despotic top down technocracy like China, would be able to handle the situation better.

I get that local government players delayed information or were/are not exactly helpful...but try to transfer that scenario to the US, where you have a relevant part of citizens or even government that don't believe in basic stuff like that many vaccination are a sensible idea, but have very strong feelings about their personal rights and freedoms.

I mean it would be a conspiracy theorist dream...the bad FEDs that are eather spreading the virus or make it up to control the population.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

jslade


Total Posts: 1206
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2020-02-18 17:40
This is probably the best call on Corona-chan.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615184/the-coronavirus-is-the-first-true-social-media-infodemic/

Literally everyone I know, CEO down to the maid is freaking out about this. I'm about 99% sure it will end up a world-wide nothingburger, comparable to any other kind of flu that comes out of the stews of China. But even if it does achieve "change of government" importance levels (or even merely "measurably bad health outcome" levels of) importance, the fact that nobody understands anything and rumors flying to the point of absurdity and people being shitty to Chinese ethnicity people for no apparent reason is probably more important than anything else.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5142
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2020-02-18 19:25
I just had two guys quarantined. One of them got back on the last flight. He visited his parents. They had been stockpiling food for months. They weren’t permitted out. He stayed in their apartment for two weeks, came back the the US and stayed in his apartment for two weeks. He’s very healthy and well-rested.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-19 12:59
Can it be that virus is just pretext and force majeure (due to lower consumption) is the real decease? oil, copper

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-legal-explainer/explainer-as-coronavirus-fails-to-ease-interest-in-force-majeure-idUSKBN205059

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-construction/singapore-builders-seek-force-majeure-advice-as-coronavirus-causes-labor-crunch-idUSKBN20C0EI

Kitno


Total Posts: 460
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-23 21:25
This has the feeling of circa March 2007. Things weren't making sense but everyone else was still on the happy clappy train.

The key issue remains the asymptomatic phase and separately the 20% incidence of 'super spreaders' patients.

I'm in two minds that this goes global pandemic but developed countries track and isolate (having in the near future already materially reduced international travel) cases so hospitals and extra staffing can treat patients while the developed world suffers badly, or, we are all screwed.

Either way a steepening vol surface...!

It seems we are settling on a 10% vs 90% recovery rate, given fatalities are based on 2w prior cases. On the bright side the Bubonic plague during the 'Black Death' killed 40% of cases.

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-24 14:36
> 'Black Death' killed 40% of cases

COVID19 does it at ~3.5% rate. That's in China. (Which is "developing" or "developed" country? to make classification correct). That's ~3 times higher than for common flue

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

So, do you suggest that the market needs some pretext to contract? For no other reason?

PS. I see, where 10% comes from.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
however it is lower
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Kitno


Total Posts: 460
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-24 16:42
It will take months to know the true fatality rate.

However my 10% cited was deaths vs recoveries of resolved cases.

Looking at reported cases vs deaths seems pointless as deaths are occurring 2-3 weeks after pneumonia occurs.

On the flip side there are likely many unreported & undiagnosed cases presenting with mild symptoms.

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-24 17:47
Pension funds must be happy. Elders are the main target.

ronin


Total Posts: 549
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2020-02-24 18:58
Been thinking about this from the modelling side.

The usual modelling is all about it being linear in the transmission rate. Like, one infects 6 people per week, another infects 4 people per week, it's the same as if you had two of them infecting 5 people per week each. Either way, the end result is 10 new infections by the end of the week.

But the whole thing about 'super spreaders' implies there is some skew convexity going on. That guy who infects 6 can't be balanced out by the other guy infecting only 4. But the only way that makes sense is if his infectees are disproportionately inheriting the 'super spreader' status. So at the end of the week you have 6 'super spreaders' and 4 'mini spreaders'. Which doesn't seem to be the case. In reality, his 6 are indistinguishable from the other guy's 4.

Yeah, that's as far as I got.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-24 19:10
add saturation effect:
If whole city is infected the infection rate goes to zero = virus has invaded them all.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Puppet_Masters_(film)

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5142
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2020-02-24 19:36
SIR model using an effective rate probably works fine locally but is useless for global modeling.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

ronin


Total Posts: 549
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2020-02-25 11:08
> If whole city is infected the infection rate goes to zero = virus has invaded them all.


That's not the infection rate though.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-25 11:44
May be this will help. Modelling Facebook as brain infection

https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.4208

Kitno


Total Posts: 460
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-26 22:19
It would seem we are tilting now to a community view that everyone will be exposed/get the virus and it's now a question of how we manage that process (i.e. there are finite hospital beds so let's stagger demand). Certainly that is the read on the Japanese comments today.

It therefore seems the process will be: within next 8 weeks this is global, we generally try to avoid getting COVID19 - we stay at home, manufacturing stops, food supplies screwed, but once you've had it and sub 60yo you can be economically active again. I can see a positive and negative view on that ability to be economically active again for the economy. Either way I can't see anyone avoiding a technical recession if only for 2Qs.


HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-26 22:42
Indeed, it looks like a light version of "black plague", "Spanish flu" or even WW, when workforce is shutdown and, therefore, there is a new energy to fill lost opportunities.

2Q or maybe 3Q. Just in time for reelection. How timely.


Wash you hands (with alcohol). Don't drink. Russians joke that vodka is best cure.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-28 12:53
Is anybody monitoring correlation between density of COVID19 news stream and VIX?

google trends detects it.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US&q=VIX,COVID19


Pens is appointed as major savior. All non-americans have to recover naturally.

Kitno


Total Posts: 460
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-02-29 00:07
Kitno Posted: 2020-02-23 21:25
This has the feeling of circa March 2007. Things weren't making sense but everyone else was still on the happy clappy train.

The infallibility of mind. After 3 weeks prior to the above of PA buying (a lot) puts as the market rallied until last Sunday night - now less than a week ago my frustration was declared in the above comment. I was on the verge of closing out my losses...then I woke up on Monday this week.

In hindsight this really was a replay for me of 2007. I was a JUB fighting for my own books back in 2006/2007 (despite running a LOT of risk) and I remember being told in March 2007 I was the only trader in credit in the bank short the market. In hindsight I now know that's because the credit MDs were told to go gangbusters or get out.

Moral of the story: a stopped clock can be right twice every 12 years.

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-01 11:36
@kitno - congratulations.


Here is one more example of statistical problem known as "German tank"

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/81-south-korean-end-days-worshippers-test-positive-coronavirus

It must be called now "End of Days".

UPD. Seems that immunity to COVID19 is low. Reinfection rates are rising for recovered patients.

pj


Total Posts: 3497
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2020-03-13 14:50
IMHO, a nice explanation of what COVID19 is

The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom Henry L. Mencken

gax


Total Posts: 22
Joined: Apr 2011
 
Posted: 2020-03-13 17:49
Got to admit I'm skeptical of all these doom and gloom scenarios. From what it seems like this virus was wide spread in China early December. I'm guessing it's been wide spread in the US from at least February. If 60% of the population are destined to have it, and it's got a 3% fatality rate shouldn't we already be seeing the ERs full of dead bodies? (EDIT: maybe I'm wrong? It seems this is already happening in Italy.)

nikol


Total Posts: 983
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-13 21:24
Yes, the more situation develops the more it is visible that it is a total BS.

Dutch are joking with "7 best receipts with WC-paper".
We have toilet paper run in nearby supermarket. Panic is a serious risk.

Kitno


Total Posts: 460
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-14 01:31
To your point Nikol - it doesn't matter does it? Fear itself is enough to realize these huge dislocations/moves we've been seeing. If it wasn't Covid it would have been something else. This is a more urgent impactful implementation of fear but still it was due in some form.

Separately, as for veracity, I have spoken tonight to a Belgian hospital doctor and British doctor each of whom are treating the severe Covid patients in hospital and it scared the shit out of me...

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5142
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2020-03-14 03:22
Uggh. I probably don’t have the endurance after this week to write substantively on this topic. Thoughts:

- There were structural things brewing: low rates, negative global yields, liquidity whispers, etc.
- The data was / is horrible. In the US the official numbers require CDC confirm and they can’t even keep up. Plus, people don’t want to be id’d, so there’s selection bias in seeking dx, in addition to no testing. Therefore, numererator and denominator are f’d.
- I’ve been having constant calls with epidemiologists re covid (and intelligence persons re OPEC) and they have been fairly consistent in signaling rapid transmission, limited dx, severity skewed in age group, and limited / constrained treatment.
- Consistent story about US underpreparedness.

So all this starts, and then the MSB/Putin showdown coincides. Annoyingly, FED cuts not just rates but rates on bank reserves, so we start to think / talk about liquidity. Indicators show stress. No stimulus / QE. Timing is bad. No price support, dealers short gamma across the line. Repo pipes widen, only 76B of subscription out of 500B available.

Credit cycle, ..., finally. People are thinking about credit losses. Borrowing picks up. Blackstone even does a public service announcement.

Growth value rotation. Long credit funds. Curve below 100bps. Swap spreads are apoplectic. Etc. Etc.

I’ll say the same thing now that I said two weeks ago. This will abate for one of two reasons by Q3 at least as the equity markets are concerned. Either the curve will plateau (a bunch of older people will be dead) or we’ll at least understand what we’re dealing with and all that uncertainly will delever the downside convexity. So equity markets will moderate, maybe not recover for year, and vol will at least be a safe proximity to implieds. However,.... rates will be lower. Maybe QE will supply some term premia, but the curve is squashes. IG and HY spreads will still be up and credit losses will manifest.

Macro the supply/production/GDP overhang will remain. So, while vol is back, everything else kinda sucks. I get to tell stories to the kids about how this is a great time to learn, offer opinions, and ask questions.

Ultimately history will view this as a failure of an old problem that lapped infrastructure and policy given globalization and over population.

As someone in the US, pedigreed a scientist, it also counters the overly optimistic rah-rah anti-intellectualism that’s supplanted critical reasoning built on the shoulders of scientific giants. We have assholes trying to build rockets to see if the earth is flat that believe vaccines are methods of mind control. I guess a few decades of abundant food, entitlement to shelter, and nobody trying to kill you will do that to an animal.

I’ll say this from a trading perspective: everything was well ordered, corr was high, dispersion macro low (except maybe not index rotation). Velocity was high. I had to tactically modify several things I’d peg to addressing latency. I am not HF by any means, but I traded quite a bit (exchange and OTC) for a buy side guy. I had some nice tactical wins. Monetized the front end of vol, some asynchronous cash futures basis, some rate flattening, etc. In the end this one way chase the panic bullshit benefits nobody. Philosophically I’d peg this to a failure of technology. Information is more plentiful, but S/N is lower, and it really sucks that sentiment and “fuzzy indicators” have higher information, I guess, forever. So that’s some advice I have for kids: develop high information edge fuzzy indicators that have a decent half life.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ
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