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nikol


Total Posts: 971
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-17 10:16
I was pointed out to these stats:

There are 198 million cases of malaria worldwide each year. The world population is 7.2 billion, and 3.2 billion people are at risk for contracting malaria. Annually, there are 584,000 deaths from malaria worldwide, with 90 percent occurring in Africa.


NeroTulip


Total Posts: 1061
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2020-03-17 10:34
If we did nothing to slow it down, COVID19 would probably infect ~50% of the population (3.6bn) in a year. Let's say 90% of cases show no symptoms (wild guess, to make it less scary). Of those symptomatic, it looks like ~10% require an ICU. Given that the world does not even have a fraction of that, that would be 36m deaths. Is that bad enough?

Of course, the outcome is largely in our hands, and if we react aggressively we can probably keep it fairly low, something like a bad flu season. Anything you do before a pandemic will look like an overreaction, anything you do after will look like too little, too late.


"Earth: some bacteria and basic life forms, no sign of intelligent life" (Message from a type III civilization probe sent to the solar system circa 2016)

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-17 11:39
Irrespective of our speculation on the actual mortality rate I suspect what is truly scaring the WHO is that if this was more infections/deadly - a true WHO Diesease X scenario we would be truly screwed given the global response to this (even when we thought early on in late January mortality could be 5-10%).

The West's behaviour in late Jan early Feb reminded me of Chamberlin in 1938:
"a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing"

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

nikol


Total Posts: 971
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-17 13:28
@NeroTulip

Agreed. Africa is lagging in covid infections. Maybe it is due to a combination of factors: higher temperatures, less population density. But that will be definitely countered with lower medical service.

@Kitno

Difficult to comment on that. What you describe is due to the selection bias in the pool of elected politician within democracy (whatever it is).

Indeed, China government/ruling party is more decisive and has more power to implement their measures (given militaristic/totalitarian-type of discipline of the population).

This is an example of behavior in demand:
"Be fast, have no regrets."
https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1238504143104421888

It is type of behavior which allows good trading companies to survive during market meltdown or used by best medical surgeons: "cut the gangrene, quick".

UDP: Look news about Fujifilm. No joke.

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 401
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2020-03-18 23:17
Research conducted independently seems to keep reaching the conclusion. Chloroquine's pretty damn close to a cure, as long as its administered early enough. It's also a simple molecule, that should be easy to ramp up production on.

I think that means the pandemic's probably winding down in 6-10 weeks. The main bottleneck is either getting enough testing capacity to quickly intervene at the first sign of symptoms. OR producing enough chloroquine that we can just have the entire vulnerable population take it prophylactically.

(Also, FWIW results from WHO show that as little as 30% alcohol is effective at sanitizing Covid-19. So it anybody's short on hand sanitizer, feel free to throw some cheap booze in a spray bottle.)

Good questions outrank easy answers. -Paul Samuelson

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-18 23:23
Research conducted independently seems to keep reaching the conclusion. Chloroquine's pretty damn close to a cure, as long as its administered early enough. It's also a simple molecule, that should be easy to ramp up production on.

Where do you see that? I am aware of the 14 clinical trials and 4 involving Chloroquine but have been unable to find unsubstantiated reports on any yet.

The early stage bit...it seems to be universal that once it gets to the lungs the cytokine immune response kills people.

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 401
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2020-03-18 23:44
The Chinese have a had a number of successful trials. The French have had good results (especially combined with Azithomycin) both in terms of reducing symptoms and infectiousness.

There's also a lot of in vitro results that are pretty indisputable. (Which of course is no guarantee in actual treatment.) And of course, there's the large body of pre-existing research showing very high effectiveness against related coronaviruses like SARS and MERS.

Good questions outrank easy answers. -Paul Samuelson

ronin


Total Posts: 546
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 10:44
> There's also a lot of in vitro results that are pretty indisputable. (Which of course is no guarantee in actual treatment.)

Meh. It's easy to kill a virus in vitro. Cook it. Freeze it. Burn it. Add bleach. Add hydrochloric acid. Add sulphuric acid. Add salt. Irradiate. Dehydrate. Overhydrate. The list is endless.

You can't do any of that with humans though, even in China.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 971
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 12:39
@ronin

From your list I recall this brilliant piece of work:
https://stuff.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/netsam/lionhunt.html

Specifically this:

"1.2 The geometrical inversion method
We place a spherical cage in the desert, enter it and lock it from inside. We then perform an inversion with respect to the cage. Then the lion is inside the cage, and we are outside."

Of course, the solution assumes separability between the virus and the human body. An alternative can be quantum projection (see method 2.3), which allows to project state of virus with specially designed operator outside of the body (e.g. into nearby trash bin).

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 12:53
Kaletra (Lopinavir & Ritonavir) does not work:
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/coronavirus-kaletra-clinical-trial-nejm/574435/

From what I've been following that leaves the following (existing) drugs:
Chloroquine
Ribavirin
Favipiravir
Interferons

Full list of clinical trials:
https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19/covid-19-registered-trials-and-analysis/

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5139
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 14:15
Curious if you can still get pregnant using the geometrical inversion method.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

nikol


Total Posts: 971
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 16:07
Vo has halted further spread by isolating asymptomatic.
Cost is 3300 tests.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 16:40
@nikol this is great for the fighting the virus but not allowing economic activity to resume. As I said a week or so for every country doing a good job they are short an option for import to 250 other countries not executing so well (or a random tribe of people harbouring the virus). In that vein the UK is to begin testing to determine who has had, and therefore immune, to Covid so they can become economically active and socially active again.

I was surprised to see a stat today that deaths only occurred in Italian Covid patients if they had underlying health issues (I wonder if they count age as such...!)

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 401
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 17:48
@kitno

You left off Remdesivir.

Good questions outrank easy answers. -Paul Samuelson

nikol


Total Posts: 971
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 18:03
More trouble is coming. Extremely cold weather.
Not good for covid, but also for trees and blossoming plants.
In Amsterdam it will hit as low as -7 for couple of nights.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/dangerous-arctic-outbreak-east-central-europe-worsening-covid19-outbreak-mk/

@kitno

Earlier someone listed high risk groups by sickness/age.
If that statement correct, then the governmental policy to save money is discriminatory to those groups of citizens.

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 19:29
@EspressoLover you are spot on. I reflected and realize my bias/omission:





HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5139
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 19:42
You’re set! Don’t take all that at once :-)

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

nikol


Total Posts: 971
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-19 20:19
Hedge funds should forget SP500/DJI stuff.
Hedge with toilet paper index! Market is cornered.

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 401
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2020-03-20 06:00
We had two bags of lopinavir, seventy-five pellets of tamiflu, five sheets of high powered chloroquine, a salt shaker half full of azithromycin, and a whole galaxy of multi-colored antibiotics, antiemitics, antitussives, antihistamines... and also a quart of pepto-bismol, a quart of paracetamol, a case of Sudafed, a pint of ibuprofen and two dozen oral rehydration packets.

The only thing that really worried me was the ibuprofen. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of a cytokine storm.

Good questions outrank easy answers. -Paul Samuelson

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-21 15:37
From a UK perspective I am strongly of the view that all of the fiscal and monetary stimulus so far leaves us with two outcomes in about 9 months' time:
1. Fiscal tax hikes - notably wealth taxes. An overnight haircut to pension pots, higher income taxes/NI etc.
2. Helicopter money/outright printing

#1 will be justified as the cost of societal stability and lives saved (of lockdown/stimulus). #2 is pretty much just orthodox thought innit - if only we had thought of this before.

I was 7 when I asked my old man why banks don't just print money.

Hammertime

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-22 23:32
The Israelis are going for the herd immunity route.

I'm starting to take the view the West needs to:
1. Give isolationists a purpose - education/work/something, else depression sets in fast (even if your basic needs are sated)
2. Herd immunity for 40 for 15m until a vaccine can be rolled out (perhaps stagger herd immunity of 40-55y.o. 6m forward).

#2 assumes no mutation or malaria-like relapses.

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"

nikol


Total Posts: 971
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-23 08:23
About lock up in the room.
On Saturday those who cannot sustain loneliness went on suicidal walk on the beach. Recommended 1.5 m were preserved, but at end of the day all of them went back home in same train fully packed. Stupid? Yes.

Our old daughter is working in intensive therapy saving those stupid soles. She came her home that same saturday totally exhausted and went sleeping 12 hour in a row. I am proud of her, but very much worried.

I am sceptical. And making jokes that the national survival depends on the discipline and social consciousness. And then wonder why chinese are so many.

Kitno


Total Posts: 455
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-03-27 23:45
WRT modelling the pandemic: who is Imperial, who is Oxford?

HEY! What about the guy who first landed on the moon? He said "one small step for man". I'd just have said "OMG I'm on the moon!"
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