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svisstack


Total Posts: 339
Joined: Feb 2014
 
Posted: 2020-04-05 19:11
I'm wondering why nobody here discussing physical Gold (or other PM's)? I see that they can play an interesting role if the CBs will lose control over inflation; trying to catch a bottom on the equities looks impossible.

www.coinapi.io && www.cryptotick.com

Kitno


Total Posts: 489
Joined: Mar 2005
 
Posted: 2020-04-05 19:35
Is it not: 0-3m deflation (oil, inventory glut), 4-9m moderate (5%) inflation from supply side shocks (no washing machines, toasters, overseas fruit/veg costs), THEN who knows what the CBs will have wrought (although there's certainly too much complacency 'because last time it worked').

Gold doesn't just have the last value store benefit but a PM/bitcoin play would avoid a wealth tax. I can easily see the G20 agreeing a one-off wealth tax to pay for the fiscal bailouts.

All the soul of man is resolution, which in valiant men falters never, until their last breath.

nikol


Total Posts: 1062
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-04-05 20:14
Supply side (generic "China") is recovering, it is the demand (generic "West") has cut expenses. If they were in sync they could have a chance to rise up together. But the lagging creates spillover effect on both sides.

svisstack


Total Posts: 339
Joined: Feb 2014
 
Posted: 2020-04-06 08:15
@nikol: Any gold leaves China?

@Kitno: Good point with the wealth tax.

I also see the oil in the short term but operated using the old version of inflation defined just by increasing the money supply, I understand that in the short term it could not lead to increase in prices, but don't know/see how it could not affect the increase in the future? I'm not an expert in monetary policy as it's not an area of my expertise, but expanding the supply must somehow backfire and it's hard to believe we will just unwind this supply after recovery, some kind of restart of the fiat will be required in the future? It looks not sustainable/stable. Prove me wrong.


www.coinapi.io && www.cryptotick.com

nikol


Total Posts: 1062
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-04-06 10:04
No idea about China.
About Russia I was in impression that they were buying all gold they mined till recently.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/28/britain-emerges-as-near-exclusive-buyer-of-russian-gold-a69455


My previous comment was exclusively about demand/supply lagging mismatch effect
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