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Maggette


Total Posts: 1251
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2020-08-15 20:23
Your predictions?
Tiannem massacre 2.0? Will Russia get involved? Will it just die out? Impact on Europe or eastern euroepe markets?
Thx

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 1176
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-08-15 21:22
Everyone is tired of Lukashenko "flexibility", really. And I think he is heavily compromised.

However, let's consider basic scenarios and briefly look into them:
A) Votes: 1) he has majority of votes 2) he does not have it
B) Information: 1) he knows truth 2) he does not know truth (=his aides setup him)
C) Involvement of police: 1) his own decision, 2) deliberate setup by aides

two major combined scenarios:
A.1 >> B.1 >> C.1 - If this is the correct scenario - most obvious solution is to call his voters (80%?) to go on the street and let them defend their votes. Since it did not happen, it tells that he is stupid. But we know he is not stupid. Something is broken here.
A.2 >> B.2 >> C.2 - probable scenario. His aides are bought out.

Most interesting scenarios are in the interplay of basic scenarios, which most of time comes to resistance from his internal circle (pointers to his Foreign minister Makei).
Lukashenko cannot fight alone. He needs the state to support him. So, now with compromised and betrayed police, he has only Army.

In shoes of Putin I would consider carefully option to invade Belarus. It will look as invasion even for his own citizens. Everyone is watching internet. A lot of info is coming, not only from TV, but also from Telegram, for example. And coming information tells to Russians that Belarus people are angry at the "forge of election".

Impact for EC. After all, Germany (and EC) needs cheap gas.
Only if Russia enters Belarus, then EC will impose sunctions, then no NS-2, no cheap energy, no competitive edge, then market goes deep down in the long term.

PS. Main victim of these elections is Belarussian industry. It will die. Next, is their agriculture. Only virtual gaming industry (quite impressive for the country of this size) will survive.
Today Belarus has quite high index of economy diversification. Even higher of that of Russia.
So, we can say "goodbuy" to all that..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Belarus

PSS. By the way, completely forgot. There are certain interstate agreements, which still functional upto free custom level and free labor float. Similar to EU.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

errrb


Total Posts: 7
Joined: Oct 2007
 
Posted: 2020-08-18 18:11
I will add my 2 cents to that. I feel Russian elite is contemplating replacing Lukashenko witn another candidate who will be friendly to Russia. In order to achieve that, they will have to promise Lukashenko and his family safety, perhaps somewhere in Russia. I think we will see some initiative from these guys in the nearest future. Belarus is different from Ukraine in a sense that it's more uniform and it also has closer cultural connections to Russians.

nikol


Total Posts: 1176
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-08-19 11:00
> contemplating replacing Lukashenko witn another candidate

That comes from all directions isn't it? He strongly disagrees with all around.

errrb


Total Posts: 7
Joined: Oct 2007
 
Posted: 2020-08-19 11:19
Absolutely agree, somehow Lukashenko, while trying to navigate between West and Russia managed to irritate both sides and his own people also.

frolloos


Total Posts: 124
Joined: Dec 2007
 
Posted: 2020-08-19 14:20
Will the country still be called "Belarus"?

No vanna, no cry

nikol


Total Posts: 1176
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-08-19 21:15
@errrb

He is very talented.

@frolloos

Why? Belarus people call themselves "belarus". Likelihood to change that name is zero.
But Belarus Republic might convert into Belarus Monarchy, yes. ))

errrb


Total Posts: 7
Joined: Oct 2007
 
Posted: 2020-08-20 17:07
@nikol

I concur, Mr. Lukashenko (aka "Bat'ka" father in Russian) is extremely talented. He could have been "Elon Musk" in Western political circles :)

jslade


Total Posts: 1221
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2020-08-21 23:28
It will become part of Russia. Which is what it is, legally, socially, linguistically and everything else.

The "West" aka US lizardman puppets and Polish prometheist numskulls will pout and gnash their teeth, but it's just ballistics. Unless you believe Poland is ready to take control of its near abroad. If you asked me in 2011 what would happen to Crimea I would have told you the same thing. Mainland Ukraine was a much different story.

The way regime change happens is when there are oligarchs or a large social class with loyalties abroad. Everyone in Belarus is basically Russian.

BTW know zilch about Belarus; went on a date with Belarussian gril once, also talked to EPAM once -that's about it!

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Maggette


Total Posts: 1251
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2020-08-22 15:22
Disclaimer:
My wife is from Belarus, spent lots of here childhood in Russia because both parents are Russian and came via the Red Army

At present she is pretty involved via different private/family/friends chats and public chats from the movement as well as from the pro Lukashenko tribe. And some youtube channels (from Russia), as well as state/government media from Russia and Belarus.

1) OMON is buckshit crazy. Random acts of violence, arbitrary beat downs. People just vanish for days. No trial.
2) It seems to be quite clear now that the official results of the election are bullshit. Although my wife thinks that the vast majority is against the regime, she doesn't think it is as clear as the opposition makes it. More 70/30 than 90/10. There is more support for the regime among the rural population.
3) The state TV was down, because many of the journalists and staff resigned. They just flew in a crew from Russia. They are back on the air.
4) The pressure is mounting. People are threatened at work.

What many here will probably find quite surprising is that Lukashenko is pushing some anti-russian sentiment for years now. He just took a bunch of Russians into custody before the elections, claiming that they were mercenaries from the Wagner group that wanted to interfere in the election. That sentiment is shared by many of the Belarusian population, even though many, if not most have family in Russia. They fear that oligarchs would take over the economy. That is complete nonsense, because the Belarus economy is basically not functional and and depends on Russia.

Since it is obvious he needs help from Putin, he found a new story now. It's the west + if the influence comes from Russia, it's not Putin...it's Navalny :).

I think after the first euphoria the protest will die down. The German reunification was possible because Russia had its hands full and wasn't interested in any drama.

My wife thinks that nikol might be right and that there is some Stalin thing going on: his people feed him misinformation. She paints a darker picture than me and thinks things may well escalate.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 1176
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-08-22 20:32
@Maggette

I admit I have written my first synopsis quick and dirty, but still some is valid.

Some corrections to my previous statements:

1. Misinformation from the inner circle.
I lower likelihood of this. It was relatively easy to overthrown him in the first couple of days when street uprising was high. Since this did not happen and he reappointed every member of his government including Makai I conclude that all events were designed to obscure legality of election results, which he knew upfront.

2. Notice main thing - election results/ballots are DESTROYED. Normally, ballots should be stored during the entire term of democratically elected leader. His current term is about to end. Therefore, LEGALLY speaking, this country soon will have no leader. But that's "just annoying detail", of course.

3. "Random acts of violence, arbitrary beat downs." Today I think that he knew he will lose election, therefore, he loaded police and army with slogans "we are under attack". Brainwashed military and some trained provocateurs were given these erratic orders to mercilessly crash people's reaction to unfair results.

4. Interaction with Russia/Putin. From point of view of Russia/Putin Lukashenko is not reliable. From point of view of belorussian business (time to time I have talks with some) he is not pursuing agenda for prosperity of the country, except his own. So, Lukashenko tries to maneuver in attempt to postpone his inevitable departure and appoint one of his sons as a ruler. He even pictures one of his sons to "disagree" with him. Belarus has no connection to the sea, and has no resources, hence it is fully dependent on Russia. Also culturally. It is Lukashenko himself supporting nationalistic, anti-russian movements within the country, no doubt. But, as you correctly noted, that undermines his position within the country.

5. There are no oligarchs in Belarus capable to appoint the president of the country.

6. Navalny was not in this particular game. His role is to attract certain "opposition energy" and to diffuse it. I cannot imagine any "belarussian scenario" in his hands. Today Telegram anonymous channels release tonnes of compromising facts, so Navalny is just lost there. The fact that he got so quickly into Germany supports my theory that "NorthStream2 must be built". This goal seems to become obsession of Putin and Merkel, so they don't want any surprises.

Because of 2. and 4. Lukashenko might turn into real dictator who is very harsh to his people (the more he is wrong, the more rude he will become).
PPS. After seeing him with rifle bringing his young son with him and telling "them" and "they will see" I am afraid of the worse...

PS. This year is extremely dense. Just waw... Still 4 months to go. I predict, similar uprising will be in post-election US whoever is elected. The 2016 will repeat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_Donald_Trump
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