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coopersmith


Total Posts: 4
Joined: Nov 2020
 
Posted: 2020-12-09 09:38
I distinctly remember reading about the possibility of a V shaped recovery forecasted by some people (s) from the big banks. This was right during the middle of the slump mid march. Does anyone have any idea how they forecasted it or was it just one of the explanations.

nikol


Total Posts: 1276
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2020-12-09 09:55
V shaped forecasts were implied from optimistic CNN messages aimed at 'dead cat bounce' ignition.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5190
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2020-12-09 15:55
Swoosh was the consensus... sharp decline followed by slower rebound. The analysis depended on understanding all the latencies and plumbing of the transmission mechanisms: fiscal v monetary, supply, etc.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

deeds


Total Posts: 497
Joined: Dec 2008
 
Posted: 2020-12-09 16:16

chiral3...do you know of any nice summaries/reviews?

Is it my imagination or are we considering what recovery means in a more granular way this time round? Maybe due to more sophisticated financial press (and audience) and contamination of U-Chi/MIT economy/finance with examination of affluence strata regarding socioeconomic inequalities as an indicator of stressed liberal capitalism if not as a seismically transmitted response to thrusting identity politics? (breath.)

Thinking of the notion of K recovery juggled by popular press

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5190
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2020-12-09 17:10
Any of the usual econ macro research shops. Jan Hatzius at gs, etc.

Nonius is Satoshi Nakamoto. 物の哀れ

deeds


Total Posts: 497
Joined: Dec 2008
 
Posted: 2020-12-09 20:05
ty! will see what i can find

: )

msjennyjhonson
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Total Posts: 8
Joined: Jun 2020
 
Posted: 2020-12-18 11:47
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