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immediate_blood


Total Posts: 3
Joined: Sep 2021
 
Posted: 2021-09-15 22:09
The probability of a stock touching a point A which is below the current spot price is 35%, and the probability of the stock touching a point B which is above the current spot price is 20%.

How can I calculate the probability of the stock touching point A(but B must not have been touched before A is touched)?

TakeItAndRun


Total Posts: 101
Joined: Apr 2010
 
Posted: 2021-09-27 08:53
Use a probability tree: the probability of the stock first touching point A without touching B is around 80%x35%.

immediate_blood


Total Posts: 3
Joined: Sep 2021
 
Posted: 2021-09-27 23:04
Thanks for that answer.

jiuer7844


Total Posts: 11
Joined: Oct 2021
 
Posted: 2021-10-01 03:00
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