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The probability of a stock touching a point A which is below the current spot price is 35%, and the probability of the stock touching a point B which is above the current spot price is 20%.
How can I calculate the probability of the stock touching point A(but B must not have been touched before A is touched)?
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| Use a probability tree: the probability of the stock first touching point A without touching B is around 80%x35%. |
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