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Maggette


Total Posts: 1348
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-03-03 10:06
I had a thread on Belarus as well and found it interesting.

All my predictions regarding Ukraine were way off. Another reminder for me to never trade "macro-geopolitical" ideas. The super-forecasters were also all wrong: https://goodjudgment.com/will-russia-invade-ukraine-again/

The only one I know who was pretty sure that Putin will invade was my wife. She is Russian and hates that dude for many reasons. Some of them very personal. So I wasn't sure if she was too emotional even though here arguments made sense.

So what's gonna happen? Next stop Baltikum? Will Sweden or Finnland join Nato (all the Finns I know were quite pissed by Putins threat and are now for joining just to piss him off).

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

quantie


Total Posts: 913
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2022-03-03 17:43
Or maybe find some good superforecasters and follow them
https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/

Maggette


Total Posts: 1348
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-03-04 08:41
Interesting. Thx

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

ronin


Total Posts: 708
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2022-03-04 16:30
Given that we are supposed to be finance types, I'd look at the money.

I guess we go with the reported bleed of $ 20 bln / day and foreign reserves (now blocked) of $ 650 bln.

Say they factor 80-100% of those foreign reserves to the Chinese. That gives them 25-30 days worth of active fighting. In real terms, probably less - they have the internal security to maintain as well.

Still. We are around day 9-10 now.

So active fighting stops in a couple of weeks at most.

If they had taken Ukraine in 2 days as per plan A, then they would throw in the Balts and Moldova with the spare change.

As things are, I don't see it.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-05 13:13
@ronin

Internal cost for war for Russia is closer to 1-2bln. Contract salaries are cheap, all resources are in roubles, tech is in roubles, majority of electronics is in yuan (and S.Korea called for exempt). I guess that the war can last as long as 1 year if needed.

Why Moldova and Balts? What is the goal of "Putin"? Remember, he is not alone. Kissinger once said "Demonization of Putin is not the policy, but alibi for not having one". By making wrong assumption, we make wrong conclusions.
If he is dumn crazy, you should expect termination of humanity in 2 weeks. Just play the scenario that "Putin" has lost the war.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5233
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2022-03-05 15:17
The Russians just continue to plow through until it’s occupied. In terms of the money, egos and concerns about NATO/EU encroachment aside, Putin could probably take a page from Xi in terms of deficit spending a cause. I think it’s interesting to think about the combined economic, geographic, and and military footprint of, say, the dissenters and abstainers in the UN vote (as a proxy). I was meeting with some fmr NSAs a couple of years ago and that scenario was all they could talk about. Of course Russia wasn’t seen as much more than a large gas station at the time. Nobody mentioned nukes.

This whole thing is interesting. The propaganda aspect - what’s being shown in news and social media - is very interesting. Picture of Putin at a long table is immediately countered with a picture of Zelensky at a small table (wearing plate carriers and breaking bead with a family). The Ukrainian military has been hard at work, having been up skilled since 2014 by several large nations, but we rarely see or hear from them in traditional media. A bit macabre but the O/U on the Zelensky hit w/ a kicker for it being Ramzan’s guys or the Wagner group would take action.

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!

Maggette


Total Posts: 1348
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-03-06 09:56
@nikol

Actually that narrative floats around a lot. That Putin is somehow a geo-strategical genius and we just don't understand him.

Like I already said: all my predictions were off, and if I would understand things, I would be able to predict things....but I don't buy that genius leader thing. Right now, I think he is buck-shit crazy.

My wife told me that the english translations of his "white paper" on the historical non-existence of Ukraine is somewhere between ok and faithfull. When I read it back then, I thought that it is just ideological ramblings he doesn't believe himself.

Like every "folkish" construct, it is full of logical holes you could drive a 50 tons truck through.

To me it is more like people read Hitlers "Mein Kampf" and just waved it off.

Russia has all the natural resources (like literally all....fertile land, large areas of woodland, huge population, nat-gas, oil, coal, gold, diamonds, platinum, uranium,copper...). And plenty of that!!

And obviously the soviet inspired education system still produces masses of borderline genius scientists and engineers. They have both. Relative cheap unskilled work and highly skilled people.

By now, from an economic perspective, russia should feel more like Norway than an developing country. To me there is absolutely no other reason than corrupt leadership that there it is still such a weak economic sitiuation over there. ANd peoiple are taking notice.
To me that dude is a looser. And he pulled the most cheap "dictator" trick out of the hat by attacking Ukraine. I mean, Turkey literally shot down an Russian aircraft and he basically did nothing other than pulling tourists . China is aggressively moving in his influence sphere in almost all the "stan" countries. And he does nothing.

At least my russian concats are fed up with him for a long time now. I think public opinion started to change a bit when he increased pension age. And went downhill from there.


Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-06 13:25
@Maggette

There is a lot of emotions and indoctrinated propaganda in what you are saying (I have that emotional tick too, forgive me just in case). I think, you read "western" papers, but I recommend you to read his speeches and articles without prejudice. To my view, main problem of western public is that they read opinions in newspapers instead of looking at origin and if they read, they throw it away with notion "he is crazy" (=not worth it). For what reason?

For me crazy is = low IQ, psycho or other disorders. Or may be you point to this as mark of aggression? Genius is not an opposite of crazy, so we do not need to discuss that and I prefer not using this word. I count him as a hard-working, dedicated man, destined to his purpose. Most human image of him I saw during public Russian Security Council meeting of 21.feb.22. Tired, grief and lonely (for reference, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7jQLFhfJr8 ) surrounded by bureaucrats caring about their carrier (except 2 or 4).

Now, everyone my apology for this long read.

But let's look on the decisions landscape. During his rule he openly and well in advance was showing his intensions and cards:
- 1999, after NATO performed classic "humanitarian bombing" of Serbs with dirty nukes, Putin asked Clinton why not to take Russian into NATO. He received cold reaction. This is not a fairy tail, because I remember this narrative in Russian press since then for years. If West/NATO wanted they could make a hint.
From this very moment, I believe, the decision was made. As we know Wall Street saying "if by entering the room of poker players you don't know who is fool, then the fool is you". So, he has taken this literally and started to build up the muscles, by cutting off significant part of resource tapping by foreign companies.
Russia of 2000-2004 was still suffering from Chechen war and regular terror attacks. By now he turned these guys from deadly enemies into friends by blood.

- 2000-2008, there were intense talks about opening borders between Russia and EU. They ended with nothing, at the moment of Russia-Georgia conflict.
- this open border proposal was motivated with "free space from Lisbon to Vladivostok" narrative. This was buried all-together.
From that very moment, followed by events in Afghanistan-Iraq-Libya-Egypt-Syria, he basically validated his decision from 1999.

But before 2008, he made public speech at Munich. Read it.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034

Turkey case is very interesting one. Russian aircraft and ambassador is counted as provocation and is ignored. Even more - Putin has saved Erdogan from military coup. Till now this policy proves to be right. Even within Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and Kazakhstan. Russia quietly supports Turkey practically everywhere. Erdogan and Putin say sometime opposite things, but they act in synch, even within Syria.

Now, we come closer to Ukrainian affairs.
- Crimea. All my life since 1982. it is very much connected to it with my best friends, (Ukrainian) wife, parents-in-law. People voted for being with Russia several times (in 1991 two times). All votes were ignored. The only thing which happened in 2014, is that those "kind people" let the free expression of voters will and executed it. Ukrainian claims that it was "stolen" is really imperialistic. During 1991-2014 Crimea experienced regular and continuous energy/electricity/water blockades (2 hours of water and/or electricity) during hot summer or winter is a nightmare, I tell you (my personal experience). People just wanted to be away from Ukraine. Point.
- Donbass. 8 years of continuous bombing. 14k+ of victims. Both, military and civil. Nobody cares (do you?)

Since last year Putin made few statements:
- one year ago: P: we have "red lines". Q: where they are? P:you will see, once you cross it. (press: bah, he is bluffing)
- 16-june: meeting with Biden. They exchanges first personal messages. I still wonder what they were, but in Aug USA has pulled Army from Afghanistan.
- december-21. Putin asked NATO to stop and to draw weapons back to Oder-line. No Ukraine into NATO and make it neutral. He had few meetings with Biden, Macron and Scholz, but none has given any fruit.
- his request towards Ukraine specifically is:
-- denazification (not among people, but among military forces and government/parlament). Bandera and Shukhevich, national Ukrainian heros, are nazi's.
-- demilitarization as guarantee of neutral status
-- guarantee of equal rights
-- accept of Crimea and Donbass as independent from Ukraine.
it is not much in exchange for peace.


My account is that Russian intelligence has received materials confirming that the "red line" is crossed already, therefore, the hard decision was made.

My prediction:
- this fight will continue till nuclear and NATO weapons go back to Oder-line or
- new pan-European security pact (like one at Yalta conference of feb-1945) is made
- nuclear war as a last resort. That's really crazy.
-- but remember, that last year 1) UK and 2) German foreign ministers and 3) Ursula v Leiden made nuclear bombing statements. They are all women. Maybe they are crazy?
+ Zelenskiy made "we want nuke" statement just before the invasion. I think he pulled the trigger into head of Ukraine.


> "increased pension age"

Come on. Here I join you: we are all pissed off with Putin's decision to increase pension age in Europe.

Russian resources is a weapon. Soon, we, Europeans (US, as usual, is better off), all will feel it.
Gas price is 2500 now, Oil does follow. Food futures jumped 50% too (it will be more due to cutoff of fertilizers (25% of global supply) and other agri products (30% of global supply)), semiconductor industry already warned to shut down 50% global production due to cutoff critical ingredients from Ukraine and Russia.

And just today Putin announced that all debts towards countries joined sanctions to be paid in rubles via Central Bank (whose reserves are blocked). Perhaps, it is technical default on all (incl. corporate) debt. So, I just wonder what I will see on the screen tomorrow... Scared

For me personally and all my big family (russian-ukrainian) all these events cause severe shock. I am not praising Putin (my relatives and friends are being bombed over there), but as you may conclude I shift the blame to the other side(s). Shortsightedness, proud and vanity play big role here.

Remove prejudice, reread what Putin said and wrote during this years by disregarding newspapers and analysts. Apart from Munich there was also an article in NYT, 2013 ( https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html ). He is really giving warnings well ahead of events.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5233
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2022-03-06 14:41
Nikol, you make a good point about reading origin sources and not western news, but you only link NYT!

The Mercator projection has been fucking with our sense of size and space at latitude since grade school. I really believe that this plays into the psychology of global perceptions.

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-06 14:59
Munich link was give as well. Here again
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034

And Security Council at the beginning. I was really looking at his face, especially, at the end. Of course, we all understand it is show, but how much it tells.

Let me collect more links. Most of them can be found at en.kremlin.ru.
Give me couple of days, I will find the most significant ones. I have put a lot of effort to write this text well balanced without emotions... :(

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Maggette


Total Posts: 1348
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-03-06 17:27
@nikol
You are sure that it's me that is indoctrinated? ;). I see a lot of mental Yoga going here. A s I did see with some parts of my Russian family for some time. Why should I be "anti Putin"? Or why should my wife be?

I really tried to read his stuff. But please keep in mind: not everybody who sometimes says things that are in line with main stream media, is a brainwashed drone. Sometimes the comon narrative is just true.

I read his white paper on Ukraine and his "Russia at the turn of millienium" thingy. A long time ago and did it again recently. And I read his speech in Munich back then.

And I am not impressed. Not at all. Sorry. Just being honest. Might be offensive to many russians who obviously still support him, but that dude is an idiot. A wild mixture of "pseudo-historian context", "folkish narrative" and some truths here and there.

I think you are way too caught up into that geo-strategic nonsense everybody loves to talk about. That is the way he loves to see himself.

My theory is more "Ocams Razor":

- Putin flat out failed his country in economic development. Like badly. Russia has a smaller GDP than Italy. Given the enourmous amounts of resources and brains that the country provides, that is embarassing. Russia has huge potential. Maybe he and his corrupt system isn't the problem. But it is obvious that this would be the first explainantion for that failure. He failed Russia on EVERY point in his 90s plan. Corruption. Diversification. And he realized that. And others do to.

- Havin success stories like Estonia in the direct neighborhood is a slap in the face. Joined Nato, opened to the West...and taaadaaa. Looks good. That is dangerous for him. Way more dangeroues than some NATO technocrats who are more interested in budget than actual war.

Nato some geopolitical thread to Russia? I call bullshit. Western ideas a threat to him? I think so.


Everything else is just whataboutism. Nato bombing Serbia? I will not talk about Sebrenica (not wetsern Propaganda, there is an appology from the Serbian government) and the UN Resolution, this has all nothing to do with the current situation.

Selensky rambling about Nukes or joining the Nato is still no reason to invade a country. If Putin believes that Ukraine is a military threat to Russia....then there is no discussion needed.

Edit: but you have interesting points. Looking forward to more things from your perspective!!! I mean it. That is for what this thread is for.


Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-06 20:52
> Estonia in the direct neighborhood is a slap in the face. Joined Nato, opened to the West...and taaadaaa. Looks good.

That's exactly what Russia tried (see re Putin-Clinton in 1999 and "open door" efforts during 2000-2008), but all attempts ended empty. Let's revert the history and make Russia part of NATO! But who is the enemy then? China? Why should we befriend against someone else, I don't get it.

Besides, Estonia is OU-country with low tax regime (banks bring profit). Many trading firms clean taxes there, so, that's where the majority of GDP comes from. Its economy diversification relates to OU-based booking for in/outflows of trades and looks bright only in accounting books. Italy is part of the big market with huge debt (150% over GDP) and is balancing on the edge of getting off the rail. Even begging to not sanction Russian gas. It's a bubble.

Are you saying that we should offset Srebrenica victims with subsequent "humanitarian bombing" victims? Yeah, you win, victims are netted.

I am not talking about being Anti/Pro Putin, but about constant narrative "he is bluffing, let's ignore this crazy man". This faulty policy (re H. Kissinger quote or yours "I am not impressed with this bullshit") is the cause of the current crisis. Basically, there is no communication, which will end up this world.

> Nato some geopolitical thread to Russia? I call bullshit. Western ideas a threat to him? I think so.

Have you being in Russia? Everyone does what he/she wants. So many opportunities.
And given the history I mentioned NATO/US leaves behind only debris and rubbish. So, who is the crazy here?

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

ronin


Total Posts: 708
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2022-03-07 14:08
Isn't this going a bit off topic? I thought the thread was about predictions, not Putin's motivation.

To try and pull it back:

I've seen the $1-2 bln estimates as well. They are, more or less, the estimates for keeping the infantry and the artillery on the ground. The total cost of this war to Russia is a metric f***ton higher. So I don't think $20 bln / day is off the mark. Besides, that was the estimate that was brought up in Putin's meeting with the oligarchs. Before any sanctions or significant losses of machinery and aircraft.

The entire trade-off seems to be a simple option trade.

Ukraine is long theta. Their target is to slow the Russians down and survive. They want Russia to keep bleeding until it is a smaller threat that can be pushed back. They can get aid from abroad to survive and restock the equipment.

Russia is long gamma. It can't keep running this for ever. They are 500% over their intended time/money scale, they need sh*t to happen now and they have to keep escalating so it does.

And neither side is behaving optimally, given their objectives.

Ukraine is too happy to go toe-to-toe with Russia, and losing equipment and manpower it shouldn't be losing for the long run.

Russia is bombing civilians in the cities, which does nothing to make this go away quickly.

Predictions? A cease-fire reasonably soon - weeks, not months. Situation on the ground is frozen for a few years. Putin remains in power, Russia remains under sanctions. Peace might only happen when Putin dies in ~ 10 years, and his successor goes to mend the bridges and lift the sanctions.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-07 18:16
> thread was about predictions

Agree.

Just for reference.
Cost of Afghanistan war

Couple of comments.
- As I mentioned, Russian contractual salaries are way lower than that of US.
- true, that "Afghan war" was not as hot as it is in Ukraine now.
- Russian logistics is way cheaper + cost of fuel.
- Russian weapons are also cheaper. It is only internal one.
- As far as I can judge from years of opinions, the biggest cost of Afghan war was due to corruption among military ranks and related industry. Perhaps, because of "everything is fine and we will crash those Muslims"-attitude. These years was a peace period.
- To compare, Russia is usually organized in different way and now it is in quasi state of war, so corruption will get to ground levels.
.
Another thing:
- all russian resources are internal and are at internal cost.
- in the state of isolation, the FX exchange rate plays very small role.
- I spoke to few friends. Their attitude is: we saw it is coming, we will survive. Incredible...

So, I still estimate the Russian cost at ~1-2bln/day.

In Europe, very soon, we will see high inflation and problems:
- high energy cost (TTF is breaking records)
- high price of food (Russia/Ukraine is off, China said that they expect bad winter yield and they are biggest consumers)
- high prices of fertilizers (Russia is off)
- non-stopping printing of cash by ECB / FED (?)
- structural debt problems with PIGS, and they are especially vulnerable to energy prices.
- necessity to allocate and pay for refugees

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Maggette


Total Posts: 1348
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-03-07 20:54
I am not sure.

There are enough Russians left who endured the 80s and 90s. They have seen worse. But many Russians I talked to are not willing to go through that nonsense again. Or see their children go through a lost decade.

I visited Russia at least once a year for almost a decade now. Things are not moving forward in this country. GDP, Gini Coefficient, Life Expectancy. A PPP median income lower than Poland, the Baltics, Slovak Republic or Italy and only a minor advantage to Hungary, Romania and Greece. All that while sitting on worlds largest Gas, Oil and precious metal resources as well as huge human capital I mind you! I mean come on. It is almost an art form to fuck that up so badly .

And my wife pointed out another difference to the bad times back then: back then housing wasn't a problem. You still had a flat and weren't paying rent. But I think that can be managed by the government stepping in.

These are cold hard facts. So I guess things will fall apart sooner than later.

But North Korea has shown: a strong propaganda machine is able to indoctrinate people until they think somehow everybody else on this planet is wrong.

So probably later.

I am also confused that everybody wants Germany to militarize itself again. Sure. We can do that. Plenty of history there. I mean just for future reference: is that what we really want? Is that something I can get in writing please? That's fucked up.

I am just wildly guessing here:
- some sort of cease fire in less than 5 weeks
- Russia will get Crimea officially (because let's be honest: it makes sense) and a corridor the the black see fleet. No big nation would allow to be cut off from a large percentage of their naval assets. I think it is dilusional to ask that from Russia.
- Ukraine will join EU and Nato
- so will Sweden and Finland

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-07 22:52
Couple of quotes of the day:

- "There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” (V.Lenin). by JPMorgan in their market overview today

- "USA is covering murder of Europe under its collective suicide" - by Zakharova, press representative of Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry

Here is reasonable overview of current affairs:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-escalation-upon-escalation

One of surprises: Turkey buys food from Russia for rubles. Erdogan said, he does not care with with what currency he should feed his people.

Thought aside - once Europe and US get fully absorbed with Russian matters, China will take Taiwan.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

ronin


Total Posts: 708
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2022-03-08 10:25
> I still estimate the Russian cost at ~1-2bln/day.

Even at that.

"In 2016, the Russian budget deficit reached $21Bln. It was expected to rise to $21.7 billion in the year. 2016 budget revenues were estimated to be 13.7 trillion rubles (200 billion US dollars) or 17.5% of GDP, while spending is planned to be 16 trillion rubles (roughly 233 billion dollars)[1] or 20.5% of GDP. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_budget_of_Russia

That was pre-covid. So, at the most optimistic estimate, Russia burned through 15% of its budget receipts so far, and by June it will be 100%.

> all russian resources are internal and are at internal cost.

That's just the denominator - it's a change of measure. It doesn't actually change anything.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5233
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2022-03-08 12:59
I am curious who is buying up Russian debt. There’s two separate things happening now. I maintain that they are going to plow through. The occupation will likely never end. Separately the money is being choked, re-routed, bought. Like ESG money is flowing for no good financial reason related to returns, it’s purely event driven. Regardless of how this exactly tracks there will be more firmly established financial ties with China and probably some of the smaller ME nations.

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-08 14:29
@chiral3

> who is buying up Russian debt

I guess nobody. Or Chinese or even Russians via (Chinese) proxies. But the matter of fact is that "West" decree blocks Russian CB reserves, while Putin's decree blocks all payouts over debt in foreign currency (if you really want it, take rubles). As far as I can see the net is still in favor of West, but not exactly. There are also investments into equity (bought back at the ground), into production facilities by companies leaving Russia (is nationalized and will continue production). Putin counts that if usd/eur is so much leveraged by heavy printing during recent years of QE/stimulus, then at some point it should implode, especially without basic resources needed to continue many things to be produced. "Nominal" Tweets or GoogleAds do not produce anything physical.

@ronin

Your arguments are not convincing enough. Basically,
- you made a statement that "Russia will knee within two weeks (end of March) and confess guilty" and you provided two different derivations which look like trying to "pull an owl on a globe" (direct translation from Russian)
- I am saying, that this war can go as long as a year. It all may end earlier (maybe even tomorrow), but Russia will get into agreement with Ukraine the points I mentioned above (demilitarization, denazification, neutral status=no NATO, accept Crimea as Russian, accept "Donetsk" as independent). Financial matters are important when country needs to buy resources (fuel, material, facilities to produce weapons and food). "Russia has everything it needs" (Putin).

Simple illustration - imagine West is in Green Era. No fuel. Plain wind turbines and solar panels. Maybe Nuclear Plants. How it will fight? What kind of tank/plane/rocket the Army will have? On batteries? Give me a break...

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

ronin


Total Posts: 708
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2022-03-08 15:26
> - you made a statement that "Russia will knee within two weeks (end of March) and confess guilty"

I did? Seriously? Where?
Doesn't sound like something I would say, if I'm honest...

> provided two different derivations

Well, yes. How ever you look at it, I see weeks.

> (demilitarization, denazification, neutral status=no NATO, accept Crimea as Russian, accept "Donetsk" as independent)

I think they already dropped the first two. Their reported requests at the negotiation yesterday were only the last three.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-08 15:31
@ronin
Not going to fight for it (we all have it enough already). Let's see the final doc. Whatever it is, I pray we have a peace and people stay alive.

☮️


PS. Biden today: "Putin's price hike" ... Devil stretches his powers to US.
PSS. Did anybody see "Outside the Wire", 2021? The stage is "On going civil war in Kiev in 2036". Movie is sh*t, but to me it shows how "extended Hollywood" views the country.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

ronin


Total Posts: 708
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2022-03-09 11:25
> who is buying up Russian debt

This just occured to me. Russian debt is basically "either we can pay you back, or things go so sh*tshape in Ukraine that we can't, but that means we bomb the whole world and we are all dead anyway."

They are basically doing to debt what budget airlines did to flying. Making it cheap by distilling it to the core product.

If you want to pay extra for debt that doesn't automatically default with the global thermonuclear war, knock yourself out. If not, step this way.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 1451
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-03-09 14:12
@ronin

what you describe is "wrong way risk" )

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Maggette


Total Posts: 1348
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-03-10 09:20
Interesting. Wasn't aware there is a name for it.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

chiral3
Founding Member

Total Posts: 5233
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2022-03-10 15:30
Who buys the debt is a leading indicator for strengthening alliances and the ability to fund Putin's will. I've said in other posts here that Russia lacks balance sheet. They have a fraction of the output and GDP of many European countries. In this regard it just becomes a matter of time (similar math on China, just longer time spans). War is expensive. If he can keep the moral of the soldiers up and access a bit more capital, debt financed or not, this occupation becomes quasi permanent.

I'm not Russian, but reading Russian news we see stories about US funded biolabs dotting the Ukrainian border, Taiwan (China), the Kuril islands (Japan), and EU encroachment. There's still a ton of Russian sentiment that's positive towards the invasion.

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
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