Maggette
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My estimate is the majority either supports the war or is agnostic/doesn't really care.
The opposition is rather small. More young and urban people. But nothing that will force a change.
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Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln,
und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk,
lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...
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nikol
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About EU. Consequences.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-considers-temporary-ban-agricultural-products-countries-outside-eurasia
Given high prices in energy, food, fertilizers, metals and other commodities and again growing instability at African continent (Egypt's Tahrir in 2008 was about bread not Mubarak) the worst is to be seen.
By now, 2.5 million of ukrainian refugees, mostly women and children. More to come. They will stay and will not come back.
The so called "migration crisis" of recent years is nothing wrt what we will see.
Combined with high inflation and likely growing loss of jobs, the european population will get quickly radicalized towards migrants. We have seen it and it will repeat. |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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chiral3
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| Founding Member |
| Total Posts: 5233 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
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| I was just having this conversation with someone the other day. On my list of things I want to do but will never get around to is write a book on the Haber process and and what it’s done for global population growth and energy (and terrorism). But growing corn for gas and steak and feeding more people than we should be able to feed (and send to four year colleges) also takes a bunch of energy. If it is someone else’s coal-fired problem big US companies can feel good about their investors and TCFD disclosures. If Russia is 15%-20% of the global urea supply, while this isn’t the strongest hand, it’s certainly interesting. |
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй! |
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nikol
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60-80% of ammonia production is gas price. Similar for other fertilizers.
So, it is not only about Russia ban on fertilizers export. It is just an additional cross effect.
https://www.icis.com/explore/cn/resources/news/2021/12/13/10686659/topic-page-fertilizers-and-the-cross-commodity-impact-of-record-high-gas-prices
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... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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Tomcook280
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| Total Posts: 13 |
| Joined: Mar 2022 |
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Ford is all set to commence the over-the-air (OTA) software updates to its vehicles. It has previously produced two of its updated models for Ford F-150 and Mustang Mach-E buyers. At the same time, rival companies such as Tesla had been producing the vehicles with the OTA updates largely.
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nikol
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Current negotiations seem to be further away from the end as they were hoped 2 weeks ago.
I also thought it will be over before mid April for different reasons than that expressed by @ronin, but still of similar scale... However, Ukrainian president has too many advisers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/18/russia-ukraine-peace-negotiations/
Today, the end of this mess seems to be after 6 months at least. Second Chechen lasted for 2 years. In a much less favorable economical state. And Ukraine is much bigger than Chechnya.
And today it was announced that in a week or so, Russian gas for Europe to be paid in rubles.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/23/Russia-will-only-accept-rubles-for-gas-deliveries-to-Europe-Putin-
Since Europe (Germany) admitted that this supply is vital, it will be paid in rubles. The uncertainty range widens further. |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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rftx713
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| Is the rubles-for-gas news why USDRUB seems to be rocovering? |
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nikol
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@rftx713
It is very likely explanation.
It is not end of the story. Novak (energy related vice-prime minister) has made a call to hydrocarbon countries to switch trade into local currencies and to move away from dollar/euro as they are too risky.
incredible ...
As Stolypin (russian prime minister 1862-1911) said:
"Russia changes in 10 years completely, but does not change in 200 years" |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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rftx713
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I don't know enough to evaluate the forward FX market, but I'd be curious to see if people are really buying into this strengthening the Ruble in the long-term. If anything wouldn't it just make Russian hydrocarbons even more relatively expensive and thus accelerate the move away from them even faster? Seems like it is essentially pulling RUB demand from long-term into the short-term.
Does anybody see a world where Europe is still relying on Russian hydrocarbons in 10 years? Is the risk that China works with Russia to build new pipelines or expand existing ones, thus find a new market for RUB?
I guess I can see how short-term this definitely strengthens RUB but I'm not sure it will matter all that much in the 5-10 year window? |
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Maggette
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Media is is very one sided here in the west and it is really hard to get good information on the web about the war. Russian media is even worse.
The Russian armed frorces are presented as a bunch of incompetent idiots. A message that I don't buy.
Every big military operation has logistic challenges and things go wrong I guess. And sure, maybe the push back from Ukraine is harder and fiercer than expected (I mean did really ANYBODY on the Russian side believe that these guys wanted to be "liberated"?).
And Russian doctrine never gave two shits about losses. Civilians or their own. So I think: maybe a bit behind plan, but nowhere the disaster that is protrayed in the western media.
The only things that baffle me:
- why does Russia not have 100% air superiority by now?
- Russia does to push a lot at night? I thought they worked hard to up nigh-vison capabilities?
Anyhow. Some people in my home country seem to be very happy that Germany wants to become a serious military player again.
Is that really what we want? |
Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln,
und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk,
lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...
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rftx713
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>The Russian armed frorces are presented as a bunch of incompetent idiots. A message that I don't buy.
I'm with you on dismissing this given the general propoganda-ness of the message, but the more I've learned the more I'm thinking this might actually be true.
A blitzkrieg invasion usually has one division taking the charge while 2-4 clean up behind it and reinforce supply lines. The Russians hit with 1, no follow up. Russian media accidentally posted, then quickly deleted, a victory speech/article. There are lots of other puzzle pieces that point to the complete picture being that Russia, or at least Putin, was not anticipating anything other than a quick victory. To be met with an organized, motivated, trained, and equipped military shows their intel - and Chinese intel - was seriously lacking.
Perhaps "incompetent idiots" is incorrect. I am sure some of their soldiers are very well qualified. But the other thing that is getting me thinking is the general status of the army in Russia. It seems to me that Putin saw the military as a competitor to the FSB, and has spent 22 years neutering it. It's now a very low status job in Russia, very poorly respected, and seen as a "loser" job. It is not attracting much "talent." The soldiers themselves are poorly trained, equipped, and motivated. Their equipment was not maintained and this is crucial for military vehicles such as trucks whose tire rubber only lasts about a year in some conditions. It's extremely feasible they're fighting how they are because their high-tech tools don't work as well as advertised, or the Ukrainians are clever enough to force them into extremely dangerous situations (like forcing the fighter jets to fly low to the ground into MANPAAD nests).
Unfortunately I think Russia can brute force their way to a solution, but this is putting Putin in a very bad spot domestically which is what I think we should really be watching. Ukrainians aren't going to be militarily defeated anytime soon (at worst, there will be an extremely large scale insurgency), nor are the Russians (as Ukrainians are smart enough to not counterattack onto Russian soil and instantly turn the entire Russian population back towards Putin). Which leaves..?
Edit: interesting thread with some interesting puzzle pieces: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278 |
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nikol
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@Magette
"Russia does to push a lot at night"
They expect people to be in the underground shelter to minimize civil casualties.
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"why does Russia not have 100% air superiority by now?"
Agree. Especially, because Russians aim to destroy Ukrainian fuel storages, that is strange at least. Still, the control is near 100%. The number of airplanes on both sides is very asymmetric.
@rftx713
You get it right. Europe aims to reduce gas in 10 years, while China's switch plan is longer, till 2060. Hence, given that Russia suddenly realized that NS2 will never start, it decided to cut it off and to "burn the bridge behind".
The bet is to get the revenue from China. See FT's analysis, it shows there predictions of gas consumption in different regions globally. Europe's consumption is stagnating (with promised downtrend till 2030) and China's one is burgeoning. Since the decision is done, they also make a huge bet on the yuan (+rouble?) system. Apparently, when amount of assets under dollar control shrinks (also thanks to Putin's decision), then it will collapse even faster. And even more and more faster after 13 years of QEs and the shrinkage of "resource base under their control" (Arabians, Latina).
Due to this "cut off" Russia has an ambition to restart all production internally ("import replacement" program) as it was in Soviet times. They call this kick as "catalytic process". Your picture might turn wrong, because your vision is static - Russia does not develop further and West always grows.
PS. And see yourself - Europe is flooded with Ukranian refugees, while previous wave refugees (Arabs, Africans etc) are getting angry - "Hey, we did not know you guys are so welcome to refugees! We did not see so much warmth as you demonstrate it now". Serbians feelings rise too. PLUS, because of the growing food prices, Africa will get hungry and start migrating towards North to Europe again. Hence, this year I expect severe migration crisis in Europe, much worse we have already seen. Like it was in 1920 after Russian revolution and its civil war (I hope we will not reach boiling point of WW2). |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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Maggette
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@nikol: IMHO that makes no sense. The best way for infantry to move without harming civilians is to move at night. Everybody stays at home. And everybody who is moving outside is probably a combatant. I think there is just less night vision capacity then expected.
@rtfx713:
By now I get a lot of information from my "boots on the ground" that points in a similar direction.
My wife managed to text with friends who fled Kiev.
They confirmed what the media says. Russia is targeting civialians without any distinction. There is lots of artillery bombardment on cities. There is absolutely no doubt about that anymore. I got videos and pictures from people I know personally. So that is not propaganda anymore.
Lot's of Russian soldiers seem to manage to call or text home. Apparently they are allowed to carry phones or nobody cares to enforce a ban on phones? Which would be crazy.
My cousin has two friends who were sent into Ukraine without knowing what was going on. I have now first hand informantion that they actually are leaving dead bodies behind and have no plans on how to manage that problem. Lots of confusion. Bad or interrupted communication. Even worse intel. And lots of friendly fire. They said they were driving in circles, then were stuck and dug in somewhere because fuel was getting low.
Is it probably Stalin all over again? A dictatorship does not reward competency and honest communication. Nobody told the "Zar" their true opinion. And probably still nobody does.
Weird. We will see. I am with nikol now and I am leaning towards that even the conventional military conflict will take longer.
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Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln,
und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk,
lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...
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Kitno
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Nikol raises some good points against Western orthodox thinking. However I disagree the "price of peace" is giving away parts of Ukraine. The Russian speakers of the Donbas were not being persecuted ergo bullshit for the need to "protect" them. Putin has spoken of the Tsarist empire and claims to Finland et al.
Like anyone be it an employee or bully the sooner you stand-up to them the better. Therefore the cost of "peace" is much greater.
If I was Putin (the way things are going into a nasty corner) I am - and my country - is already a pariah I would seriously consider letting off a single tactical nuke in Ukraine. It somewhat stymies every other state actor for 10-15y, or, at least his time in power which is all that matters. |
It's just about taking every single dollar...and more. |
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rftx713
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| Total Posts: 144 |
| Joined: May 2016 |
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| @kitno - I'm just not sure the tactical nuke holds up. At this point it would very clearly be seen as a sign of desperation aka weakness. It would also make it so painfully easy for the entire world to completely sanction anybody interacting with Russia - so there goes the China connection. Couldn't the West win by *not* responding to the tactical nuke militarily and using it as leverage to completely neuter Russia economically? Russian population will only take so much pain and at that point they would take care of the Putin problem themselves... because otherwise they're facing certain vaporization as the alternative? They aren't that stupid surely? |
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nikol
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| Total Posts: 1483 |
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As a preamble here is famous quote copy from IMDB Terminator-2:
The Terminator: In three years, Cyberdyne will become the largest supplier of military computer systems. All stealth bombers are upgraded with Cyberdyne computers, becoming fully unmanned. Afterwards, they fly with a perfect operational record. The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes online August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
Sarah Connor: Skynet fights back.
The Terminator: Yes. It launches its missiles against the targets in Russia.
John Connor: Why attack Russia? Aren't they our friends now?
The Terminator: Because Skynet knows that the Russian counterattack will eliminate its enemies over here.
---
I am not a "sofa military expert", so I just draw possible scenarios given some logic. And I see two approaches:
- let's fight for peace of our democracy
- let's fight for global peace
The word "fight" can be replaced with "stand".
These approaches seem to be semantic, but they reflect our life philosophy or system of values.
EU bureaucrats vote to blockade Russia by trade. But it will hurt EU citizens in many ways. Now, western media tells me that Russian citizens will be hurt more as an excuse that standard of living of their voters erodes.
Russian media feeds their population with exactly same shit, again to excuse the prices rising in supermarkets.
Ukrainians are continuously told that they win the all-mighty enemy *).
After all it will be the question, which population has stronger "balls" or is more "stupid" to believe its media.
And I am questioning recent days: is that Dec-2021 ultimatum by Putin is worth the peace?
- mutual security guarantee across Europe
- neutrality of Ukraine (no other items, which we see now)
- execution of Minsk's agreement
WSJ reports that Europe's economy shrinks, while US business activity improves. Story repeats. I am wondering, who is that "fool in the room".
PS. *) Curious example of propaganda - yesterday Ukrainian journalist living in Spain (Anatoly Shariy) streams in Youtube reports from Ukrainian Defense while responding to telegram-chats in real time. Someone pointed out that the video is from computer game (sound of cycads at winter is suspicious). With few minutes delay, these reports disappear from site of Ministry of Defense.
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... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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rftx713
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| Total Posts: 144 |
| Joined: May 2016 |
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>And I am questioning recent days: is that Dec-2021 ultimatum by Putin is worth the peace?
Historically, has appeasement ever been a good idea in the long-term? I don't ask flippantly because of WW1 and WW2, I'm asking if there are other examples where it has worked and created lasting peace? |
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nikol
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There is no eternal peace, true. Everything is in dynamics. But that specific part of (my) life, I wanted to spend while traveling, eating and being happy.
Now it is like a famous today meme from Bloomberg:
"Nobody said this would be fun" (stream of comments there is fun) |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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nikol
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| Total Posts: 1483 |
| Joined: Jun 2005 |
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| ZeroHedge: Meanwhile EU is cornered, Exxon mines bitcoin with excess gas. |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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nikol
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Cannot resist, my colleagues. I hesitated to post it, but it burns.
Over weekend I caught a severe flu with temp up to 39.2 and was bounded to bed. Nothing to do, sometimes scrolled telegram (tg). Nearly all Russian language channels following current events were flooded with reposts of videos registering atrocities of Ukrainian nazis towards captivated soldiers. Seeing human vanishing to heaven after being tortured is something. Another fragment showed hysterical nazi screwing an eye with knife and then killing the man. I realized that all stories I heard these 8 years about Donbass were a hard truth.
This level of stuff was on TV during war with ISIS (e.g. decapitation on camera), but it was like "some other world". Here are the places I have been and people I could have known. It makes the whole story very different. I will not forget it. It is like losing innocence (if you are not drunk).
All my heart is with peaceful civilians, however, the cleaning of the country from these animals is an absolute necessity. Civilians cannot remove those nazis who are in power. Without this work the country is a threat.
PS. It appears that tg is very popular in Italy too. They have seen same videos and today Napoli is screaming to M.Dragi "Assassino".
PPS. After those videos leaked and caused damage of Ukrainian image, their Defense Ministry issued ban to all videos publishing = they still accept torture practice. Hence, my conclusion is still the same. And I m sure that Zelenski is aware of everything.
If you ask, I can post many links. I think, videos can be seen without loading tg.
After dumping it, Im not going to quarrel emotionally. |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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nikol
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So, gas stream is stopping.
Will the Europe pay in rubles?
I read many scenarious, which sound very hawkish and cowboy. And I also have an idea what will happen to Germany and Italy as first victimes if gas stops.
The naked question is therefore wiil Europe pay the bill in rubles? |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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Maggette
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I think it is rather obvious that there are a bunch of dangerous idiots fighting on the side of Ukraine.
Besides the obvious Azov regiment, calling foreigners to arms will attract the wrong people. It is no secret that some of the Chechens and Dagestani on the side of Ukraine are simply Jihadist on a revenge trip for the well documented Russian atrocities in Chechenia and Syria. Nothing good will come out of this.
And it hurts the Ukraine narrative. Actually they handed out a script how to handle Russian captives.
If you watch all the videos of captured Russian soldiers, they all follow the same script.
If torture of POW becomes common practice, there is no doubt that the public support for weapon export will fade in European countries rather quickly. I don't think Ukraine will like to see that scenario.
Will they really prosecute that stuff? I doubt it. Russia lied about everything so far and were exposed over and over again. Even if the videoas are real (and I think they are) Ukraine can always play the "russian propaganda" card. Because most of the time it was just that: russian propaganda.
Same for the Kadurov war dogs on the other side.
Talked/texted again with a couple of people who are or were in the mix:
- there is no denial that Russia is systematically targeting civilian areas with artillery, mortar and air strikes. I have been told: probably not as bad as in Syria or the 2nd Chechen war. But still a war crime.
- Russian armed forces are really in more trouble than I anticipated. Even if you discount for the Ukraine propaganda it is no question that Russia needs to regroup and got their nose bashed in. I don't buy the 10K deaths number. But it is obvious that Russia is lacking a lot of things I thought they had in place by now. At least in the north/north-west. East and south-east seem to be bad, bit not that bad.
- still I think Russia will adapt. Dead soldiers never meant anything to Putin. He will regroup and attack again.
That shit will follow us for some time.
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Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln,
und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk,
lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...
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nikol
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@Maggette
- "bunch of dangerous idiots".
These are nazi. You named Azov and Aidar, but they are only few. The problem with Ukraine is that these got into power. There is a an official register of nazi-units across the country. ~1400 of them! How many people it involves I have no idea.
- As far as I see his activity, Kadydov is a showman. If you think, that Chechens and Dagestani are crazy Jihadist militants joining RF Army and acting independently cutting throats of civilians, then perhaps you copy the way American/NATO-Army acts.
- "Russia is systematically targeting civilian areas with artillery, mortar and air strikes"
Only if there is confirmed presence of military units. Shielding within civilian is a war crime. RF Army is targeting military, not specifically civilians, as NATO/Allies did in Serbia or Iraq (list continues). Ukrainian army is factually targeting civilians. 7 yrs of Donetsk and it is still on-going. Within Mariupol they still shoot houses of people - freed citizens report, video files arrive daily.
- "Russian armed forces are really in more trouble than I anticipated". The main problem is that Ukrainian Army is shielding with civilians. Specifically Mariupol has created so much "criminal material"... Right now photos are published, where Ukr.Army units locate themselves in Uman', Jews sacred town (I do not know what to compare it to, like Mecca?), while Zelenski claims that Russians hit it. I was baptized within 70km from there, so my relatives are terrified.
- "well documented Russian atrocities in Chechenia and Syria" . Perhaps you are reading DW, FT, BB, WSJ too much. And do not watch CNN !
The rest of items I better "conveniently" skip (self irony is here).
We help refugees coming in our neighborhood, letting them temporary place to sleep on commute, food and our second hand dress. I better spend my energy there.
Still, main question - will Europe pay in Rubles? :) |
... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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Maggette
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"They target military, not specifically civilians, as NATO/Allies did in Serbia or Iraq (list continues)"
If that is what you chose to believe. So you are saying: Ukrainians are shelling their own towns to let Russia look bad. Sure.
I have personal sources myself. Friends and extended family! Former business contacts. I have a russian speaking wife. I am not some westerner who gets his news only from western sources. Every Telegram channel you watch, I have probably seen to.
The buildings that got flattened by russian artillery strikes are their homes and have zero military presence. Russia would not have the recon capabilities to detect them if there were.
These are just area bombardments. Plain and simple. If you really believe the "precision" strike narrative, I don't what else I could say.
I understand that this is uncomfortable for you. But it's the truth. But I am pretty sure nothing I write will cahnge your opinion.
"As far as I see his activity, Kadydov is a showman."
I trained with Chechens for almost a decade now. They fled to Germany not because he is a showman. There is a whole Chechen diaspora in europe you are obviously not aware of. With todays mobile phones I have seen enough to guarantee you: if the torture videos you saw upseted you...you obviously have no idea what Putin and his dogs did in his cuacasian backyard for decades now.
"If you think, that Chechens and Dagestani are crazy Jihadist militants joining RF Army and acting independently cutting throats of civilians, then perhaps you copy the way American/NATO-Army acts."
"You named Azov and Aidar, but they are only few. The problem with Ukraine is that these got into power."
Could you elaborate a bit? Selensky is jewish. Svoboda didn't manage to get beyond 2% in 2019? Rodnia got pretty much the same result in Russians 2021. Maybe Russia has a Nazi problem too then? |
Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln,
und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk,
lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...
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nikol
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It all looks that we fall into a war of arguments - mine vs your sources, belief vs truth. It's pointless. I stop here. No offenses to your sources and your circles. We are talking like in "Lemon market" by Akerlof (Nobel Price).
Bottom line question is above. It is very practical from finance point of view. Let's not discuss legality issues, they are obviously broken from all sides.
For me the answer is not obvious as I do not know calculations and psychology of politicians and the way they take the decisions. Very likely, the suffering of population is not accounted. It can be accounted though and rerouted into "Putin cause".
Without Russian gas:
- 3 German industries (chemistry, steel, paper) quote few weeks to stand and then shut down.
- Italy is already reporting alarms but does not tell anything specific except strikes of truck drivers. Since Libya is off, not sure if its gas flows.
- Spain closed 3 steel factories as well. They were in trouble for 6 months by now. Spain is sourced by gas from Algeria via Morocco, but these two have some territorial disputes. So, it is at risk.
- UK, I read shutdown warnings since oct2021 (remember damage of French cable?)
- France do not read anything specific. I think they are safe, because they have Nuclear Power. Smart !
- Also, I read news about temporary (but within very crucial period of vegetation) export bans on food and fertilizers by Russian government for the reason of securing own citizens. Fertilizers could be partially offset with local production in EU, but the cost is high and even if they do, still without energy/gas it is nearly impossible.
So, what politicians decide?
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... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c) |
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