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Maggette


Total Posts: 1350
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-03-30 13:08
Yeah. Let's hope for the best buddy.

Hope you, your friends and loved one will get out of this mess without too much harm.

Regarding the impact of missing russian gas. I hear different things from different people. It most definetly will hurt the smaller companies most. They have no hedging. No alternatives. Close to no "war chest". And the small companies are the back bone of the the german economy.

We will see.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

rftx713


Total Posts: 143
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2022-04-02 15:28
I thought this post was interesting with regards to the Ruble back at pre-war levels:

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/the-ruble-vs-exchange-market-pressure-in-russia

That being said, I only really know commodities and can't speak much to dynamics in the FX world outside of putting on basic FX hedges for other trades.

Does anybody have any new thoughts on Ruble levels?

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-04-02 20:31
> any new thoughts on Ruble levels

It's internally pinned to gold at 5000 rub/g, so any premium around it is a conversion cost.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

quantie


Total Posts: 913
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2022-04-03 14:24
The current account is improving as energy exports are strong and imports have collapsed. It is not a currency anyone will trade unless forced to because they buy Russian exports. It is gold with high carry but with the risk money gets confiscated. I would imagine domestic inflation is high so they will have to Jack interest rates up.

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-04-03 16:51
Some mumbling around ruble-gold-commodity-dollar ring and some consequences for paper gold market (its troubles were discussed for many years by now).

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/paradigm-shift-western-media-hasnt-grasped-yet-russian-ruble-relaunched-linked-gold-and

The dollar, and secondary euro-sterling-yen, as a system is already inflated with debt (with certain Leverage), hence, to my view, its reduction of "circle of influence" leads to increase of that Leverage even without further increasing of debt (which does increase as we see). So, one can interpret current events as Russia forcing "partners" to arrest its assets, which removes a dependence hook.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-04-12 21:49
"Putin price hike"


"White House warns of 'extraordinarily elevated' March inflation"
https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-warns-extraordinarily-elevated-174237300.html

I read that Gazprom has left its storages literally empty. It supplies only upon long term contracts.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

pj


Total Posts: 3654
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2022-04-28 07:27
Well, the symbolic date May 9 is getting closer.

Alas, my prediction is more October 7. Another
symbolic date. Birthday of Putin.

The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom Henry L. Mencken

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-04-28 20:49
It seems we will not see the end of this year. May be some will, but they won't be very happy and healthy.

@pj

Too much focus on Putin leads to wrong model of reality, wrong conclusions and predictions. If you remove him from consideration, you will see larger picture.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

pj


Total Posts: 3654
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2022-05-08 17:42
> If you remove him from consideration, you will see larger picture.

Would love to see it happen.

The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom Henry L. Mencken

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-05-09 15:38
@pj

“It’s really quite easy,” he said. “I’m standing around a table, when some guy says, ‘It’s comin’ out nine! It’s gotta be a nine!’ The guy’s excited; he thinks it’s going to be a nine, and he wants to bet. Now I know the odds for all the numbers inside out, so I say to him, ‘I’ll bet you four to three it’s not a nine,’ and I win in the long run. I don’t bet on the table; instead, I bet with people around the table who have prejudices—superstitious ideas about lucky numbers.” Nick”

/Richard Feynman, "Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! Adventures of a Curious Character"/

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

pj


Total Posts: 3654
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2022-05-09 15:57
@nikol

Mine was a lame attempt for a joke.
(Although I do believe, that current situation would be better without Putin now)

Your last post is a bit hard to parse for me. Lucky nine number?
Feynman? People on the table?
You need to explain more.


The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom Henry L. Mencken

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-05-09 20:34
@pj

Explaining jokes is a bad style. Let it remain a riddle.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

pj


Total Posts: 3654
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2022-05-10 06:24
"Surely You're Joking, Mr." nikol!

The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom Henry L. Mencken

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-05-11 12:31
@pj

The problem about discussing current events is in a mix of rational and emotional.
We throw arguments about price-demand-supply, democracy-dictatorship, fear, hunger... And one important ingredient here is that truth-fake pair is not exactly the same as information-disinformation.

In my view it is all about politicians as elite reps, business and population. The latter have multiple roles: they are consumers and voters. And the first two manipulate their utilities through fears.

So, the quote is about this: if emotions impact your utility, your pocket will more likely get empty. Nothing else.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

jslade


Total Posts: 1250
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2022-05-11 12:49
This was an amusing thread to finally read, months after the start. I think the key words should be "information warfare." Nobody knows what's going on because 100% of the "reporting" are some form of marketing or propaganda or overwrought emotional bullshit originating from nationalism or some defect in people's social lives (often the same thing). The western media has been stating that Putl0r is doomed for about 20 years now, since he began taking the oligarchs out to the woodshed, and it hasn't been even approximately correct any more than it was about Bashar Assad. There are powerful state-backed forces in the US who think if they market hard enough, their bullshit will become reality. Newsguard, the homeland security disinformation clowns: while I used to think it was some scions of internet startup reality distortion fields, I think the establishment is simply frightened of its citizens noticing things. Maybe it should be: I certainly hate their guts. I don't know how we go to the point where Mearsheimer is a thought criminal and psycho mary poppins Caligula-horse Jankowicz gets to tell us what to think.

There are a couple of things I know are true:
1) Russia has existed for a long time, and Ukraine hasn't.
2) Whenever the US establishment is this unanimous about anything (GWOT, housing prices always going up, globalism being superior to autarky, the wuhan death virums, the need to censor the internet: take your pick), it is steering Western Civilization into a giant disaster.

Otherwise, I'm agnostic. I like Ukrainians and like the 4-5 other sane people from the West, I wish they could figure out how to make peace with their larger neighbors, regardless of how it effects Raytheon's stonk prices.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-05-11 14:53
@jslade

Exactly.

By continuously reading news-tape since 22feb I still try to make cold judgement of that very hard although I am deeply rooted on both sides on family level and on the level of friends, so that makes things very complicated. .

---
However, I am amused to observe all these events of such a gigantic scale. Whatever the ending will be.

Today my interpretation and explanations or events is this:
Russia (Putin) is getting out from "Western project". That's hard fact. It is well-thought and planned and is not spontaneous. Looking backwards, I recall that last two year were full of warnings.

Few reasons:
1. business and economics
1.1 Selling hydrocarbons to Europe is stagnating due to Green Conversion. Russia wanted long term contract, but Europe rejected. After building NS2, Russia faces the prospect of not being able to sell gas after ~2030.
1.2 the same is about all other resources (metals, wood, energy)
1.3 At the same time, strong demand growth is coming from Asia mostly driven by China and India. Only they combine ~2.4 billion of people.
=> first conclusion: reroute hydrocarbon flow towards prospect markets;
1.4 Trade and investments are heavily taxed by dollar system, either by requirement to use Wall Street banks or by setting ratings below investment grade;
1.5 Russia cannot reuse its earning proceeds which are stored in foreign currencies. Basically, it cannot invest the wealth generated from gas sales into other profit generating western assets
=> second conclusion: get out disadvantageous financial system and join or even create a new one.
1.6 By USD count Russia contributes 2% to the global economy. But see the impact it causes. Something is wrong, isn't it?

2 political.
2.1 Heavy informational dependence. It is a national threat, because it gives a possibility for external actors like Google, Facebook, Twitter and Soros to control the behavior of population.
third conclusion => get out from this informational control grip
2.2 After Soviet Union collapse Russia wanted "equality", but it was not granted. There is huge appeal for independence. That's sensed as humiliation among the population and, of course, this sentiment is used to ignite public support for all changes.
fourth conclusion => get politically independent

3. technological
3.1 Russia is de-facto in technological isolation. It cannot buy technology (e.g. car production) nor it can sell it (e.g. Nuclear Power tech).
3.2 It appears to be IT-colony. All related tech is foreign. The "famous Russian hackers" is a western myth. Their quality is much lower than that from NSA, let's admit that. It appears to be in the core of state security on all levels: economical, political, military and technological as well.
3.3 After many years of generating high profile science in soviet times, I can tell that current state of scientific affairs in Russia is close to disaster. In the last 30 years since collapse of Soviet Union, Russian Academy of Science did not generate much.
fifth conclusion => create own tech generating environment as a combination of politics, science and economy (business).

4. military
4.1. basically it is simple: NATO boundary has moved too close, so it harmed security. The call for guaranteed mutual security in Europe is totally ignored and bashed.
sixth conclusion => move that border further away even at the cost of creating permanent stress.
4.2. Ukraine (at the very bottom) is a victim of this and just happened to be in between "hummer and stone". It is the smallest but important piece in collapsing domino chain.

The manner in which all this is executed is used to catalyze and ferment all changes I mentioned above as conclusions in all dimensions.

Of course, I admit, this is Russia-centric picture, but it is part of the global stress between US and China. So, in this respect Russia-West/NATO stress is perhaps small piece in similar global domino chain.

Main message: nothing personal, just the business. I want to emphasize, Ukraine is not the subject, but the object here and is used by all sides from Russia and West (see how they extract food flow from the country under pretext of Global Hunger).

Perhaps in my attempt to dry this out I missed some elements, but I hope it is enough to get the flavor of my idea of the model of this reality. This is the "skeleton" and all political and emotional messages are the "meat" on that skeleton.

PS. waw... so much is written.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Maggette


Total Posts: 1350
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-05-29 11:37
@jslade I tend to disagree.

I know people over there. Like friends and family. Plus no several refugee families to whom I talk on a regular basis.

I suggest get to get away from the internet for w a while Don't overcomplicate things or try to be sophisticated where there is no reason to do so.

Western Media is biased on that Ukraine stuff. Sure. But on average they were right. And Russian media is lying like Gobbels did.

After a long time observing it, I consider the "it is all propaganda, on both sides" pattern as a POV from pampered westerners, who lost touch with reality by watching and reading to much "doom and gloom" porn from the INCEL-Menshpere filter bubble.

You getting banned on twitter is not the same thing as "somehow falling out of a window".

A broken toe is not the holocaust. Period.


After months watching that shit:
- the idea that Putin has some global masterplan is absudrly laughable. He managed to push Sweden and Finland into Nato. His troops are now making some progress again. At absurd costs of civilian life. Germany has drastically increased its budget and will be way more millitant in the near Future. GREAT JOB for Russian safety!
- even though Russian safety is not an issue and actually never was an issue. Biggest nuclear arsenal in the world -> end of discussion. Like really. There is nothing more to say.
- if he really thinks somebody is after Russia, he is just paranoid. As many dictators, he probaly is.
- if he thinks the West is after him, he is probably right. At least now.

Russia won't win a war against the rest of the world. Long term. No wet power fantasy dream will change that fact.

I am German. We know that fact very well!






Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Risk_Reward


Total Posts: 9
Joined: Jun 2020
 
Posted: 2022-05-29 23:37
@Maggette, with all due respect, there seems to be some massive political / emotional bias in this reply.

First, the reference to “incel-manosphere“ sounds pretty misandrist.

Second, as it became apparent, large parts of Ukrainian population have been brainwashed into what can be accurately characterized as „anti-Russia“ hate mongers. This is hardly healthy. Israel sees justification of its militarism in the fact that it’s surrounded by countries whose aim is to destroy it and its people. Large parts of Ukrainian population have been brought up in blind animalistic hate for everything Russian. It’s hardly surprising that many Russians see them as existential threat. If someone tells you „I hate you and am going to kill you“, you better believe this person.

Third, we see that the West is now fighting Russia not with nukes, but economically. So, nukes (unfortunately) do not guarantee safety.

Fourth, it is perfectly clear now to any Russian with half a brain that the West IS after Russia. The sanctions imposed hit ordinary citizens who have no say in government’s decision-making.
What is the purpose of hitting the ordinary citizens? Obviously, it’s to provoke an uprising and a color revolution (the West’s favorite tactic), only now it’s supposed to be WITHIN Russia.
Good thing Russia is not (or no longer) a banana republic like Ukraine or Georgia, where a lawfully elected officials can be overthrown by a mob of thugs.

Finally, with all due respect, Russia was on the winning side, both in WWI and WWII, unlike Germany.


Maggette


Total Posts: 1350
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2022-05-30 14:57
Sure. There might be an emotional bias. Probably because, again, I know people there. By close to a hundred. That makes it less abstract and a more personal experience.

The "incel manosphere" might sound like a rambling. But do some research and you will find a large cluster of people who:

- reject modernism in general
- think feminism, political correctness and the"wokeness" and "justice warrior crowd" is basically Voldemort
- hence feel polical oppressed in Europe or the US and compare it to the matter of affairs in Belarus or Russia
- by extension worship Putin (since he is the anti-thesis of all the woke-mainstream people


And my verdict stands: you can agree with the above mentioned nonsense if, and only if, you are a spoiled brat that not has to live constatently in such an environment.


"Second, as it became apparent, large parts of Ukrainian population have been brainwashed into what can be accurately characterized as „anti-Russia“ hate mongers."

It always baffles me how people can come to these conclusions and state them as a matter of fact. You evre visited the country in you life? It came apparent to whom and how exactly?

I repeat: for a long time you were allowed to openly identify as a Nazi in Ukraine. If you really hated Russians, you could vote for "Svoboda" in parliament- and presidential elections. And they never breached the 4%. Like never!

Even if you would qualify "Batkivshchyna" as "ultra-nationalist" and add them to the anti-russian hate mongeres...you get 12% in the parliament elections?

My wife is Russian and was in a long term relationship with pro-european man who bled on the Maidan against Russian influence. Almost everybody understands and speaks the ukrainian as well as the russian language. It was absolutely common and everyday thing to have people speaking both languages in a single conversation. Even in the far west of Ukraine.

Add to that tha even in the West of Ukraine there is a huge part that has family ties to Russia.

Pushing the narrative of a extrem Russia-Phobia Nazi Ukraine is laughable.

"Third, we see that the West is now fighting Russia not with nukes, but economically.
So, nukes (unfortunately) do not guarantee safety."

That's true. But neither does attacking and occupying Ukraine guarantee safety?
What are you implying here? That fact that the West increasesd sanctions after Putin invades another country is somehow proof that the west is after Russia? That is a bit of victim blaming, isn't it?

"Good thing Russia is not (or no longer) a banana republic like Ukraine or Georgia, where a lawfully elected officials can be overthrown by a mob of thugs."

You aware that (other than Ukraine) the OSCDE is not even bothering to show up to these elections.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/06/three-near-identical-boris-vishnevskys-on-st-petersburg-election-ballot


Putin has still a huge backing in Russia. No question. But that Ruusia isn't a Banana republic is absurd.

"Finally, with all due respect, Russia was on the winning side, both in WWI and WWII, unlike Germany."

Right. That was exactly my point. Russia is the new Germany. Attacking european neigbours out of "self defense" and based on absurd folkish-ideological nonsense.

And, like Germany, Russia will loose that war.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-06-04 07:19
Catastrofe.
Earlier injected cash has broken the dam.

"Industrial inflation by country:

62.3% – Ireland
62.3% – Denmark
60.4% – Romania
52.7% – Belgium
49.7% – Bulgaria
49.3% – Slovakia
48.7% – Estonia
48.1% – Greece *
45.1% – Spain
44.1% – Italy
33.1% – Germany
27.8% – France

Industrial inflation after 3-6 months, as a rule, leads to an increase in final consumer prices".

That's only about impact of energy on industry. Food wave is coming too.

https://en.rua.gr/2022/06/03/37-2-industrial-inflation-in-the-eurozone/

I think Putin just made a gift to Western politicians to explain all of this (last two points actually).

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

pj


Total Posts: 3654
Joined: Jun 2004
 
Posted: 2022-06-08 18:49
The Russian parliament are looking into revoking the
independence of Lithuania

translation here
No comment...

The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom Henry L. Mencken

Risk_Reward


Total Posts: 9
Joined: Jun 2020
 
Posted: 2022-06-09 12:03
"Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html

nikol


Total Posts: 1466
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2022-06-29 13:17
Everyone slowly begins to accept end of operation/war by next year.
Since everyone gets stubborn, the limits will be touched to the limits. I hope it will be not nuclear. I have no idea where it will go militarily, but economic impact is becoming more or less clear. Some internal voice tells me that even if peace is locked soon, the economic global confrontation will not end. Just in opposite, it will intensify.

- Gas will stop flowing to EU, unless they permit themselves to tap it from NS2. Qatar is asking for 20 yr contract, while last year Russia asked to fix low price over 15 years through NS2.
- Wide spectrum of important metals will stop flowing as well, harming heavy industry and 'green goals' (what is it by the way, anybody remember?).
- Without gas a number of industrial sectors in Germany and Italy will stop, with ~10M ppl jobless. That will have domino, non-linear, effect on everything around. EU will be in great danger. Last month accidentally I had quite a few non-connected discussions on this subject. This idea is in the air.
- Without metals, gas, oil, other materials no weapons can be produced, by the way.
- NATO wants to extend its forces. Impoverished commons will be happy to join army to meet ends (or to terminate everything at once).
- with that stupid gold embargo, the gold price will jump multi-fold, maybe 10k?

We are landing. Take your sits and fasten your belts. Thank you for flying with our company.

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)

Risk_Reward


Total Posts: 9
Joined: Jun 2020
 
Posted: 2022-07-01 14:21
EU disintegration in the near- to mid-term seems less and less improbable

rftx713


Total Posts: 143
Joined: May 2016
 
Posted: 2022-09-13 18:25
Perhaps it's time to revisit some of this?
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