Nonius

Founding Member Nonius Unbound

Total Posts: 12808 
Joined: Mar 2004 


fair enough, but let us keep this little puzzle simple, and then we can sup it up to something a little more interesting....
by the way, the percentage of people who get it right IS some knowledge that could help us. 
Chiral is Tyler Durden 



Johnny

Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333 
Joined: May 2004 


Absolutely.

Johnny Jupiter Phynancial phorecasting by the stars for the stars 


James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


I think I will play in a limited sense. I think I can do a) but I can't do b). 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 



NIP247


Total Posts: 560 
Joined: Feb 2005 


With the risk of looking like a complete fool, I'm first out with my neck on the chopping block:
Generic trendfollowing model with no curvefitting generated following stats:
Long trades: Cases: 28, avg: 4,17%, stdev 19,04%, min 15,38%, max 67,52%
Short trades: cases: 27, avg: 4,29%, stdev 10,80%, min 8,02%, max 30,47%
now give me my sentence "It was all random!!!!!"

On your straddle, done on the puts, working the calls... 


Johnny

Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333 
Joined: May 2004 


Just to make another blindingly obvious point. One realisation of a random walk might well contain some trend or pattern that appears significant. Therefore it's not a reasonable game to construct one realisation of a process and then ask for opinions on it. In real trading I don't accept trading strategies unless they appear to *work* on a wide range of different markets. I don't want to be making the game unnecessarily complicated, but perhaps we could do something similar by having several (20 or so) realisations of the same process? Just a thought. 
Johnny Jupiter Phynancial phorecasting by the stars for the stars 



FDAXHunter

Founding Member

Total Posts: 8372 
Joined: Mar 2004 


Looks random to me, albeit with a pretty weak RNG. 
The Figs Protocol. 


Nonius

Founding Member Nonius Unbound

Total Posts: 12808 
Joined: Mar 2004 


mkay, you want me to tell you how this was generated? 
Chiral is Tyler Durden 



NIP247


Total Posts: 560 
Joined: Feb 2005 


Nonius >> Pleease, I'm dying! 
On your straddle, done on the puts, working the calls... 


Nonius

Founding Member Nonius Unbound

Total Posts: 12808 
Joined: Mar 2004 


if three others say yes, then I'll post the answer. 
Chiral is Tyler Durden 



RFMontraz

NP Italian Stallion

Total Posts: 2021 
Joined: Mar 2004 


Knowing that I'll look like a complete fool here's what I get from the RFMTrendFollowingSystemForMongoloids:
One long trade only, only slightly positive. That would lead me to say: random (but the system itself is very basic and analises data in a timeframe that doesn't necesseraly have to work for every market. So if this asset is non random and trends in shorter periods I won't be able to spot it. But the least I tweak the parameters the better  at least that's what I'm comfortable with).

Fund Raising and Racketeering, Capital Structure Demolition LLC
 What the fuck you mean "not interested" you motherfucker you?? 


Johnny

Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333 
Joined: May 2004 


I couldn't see any obvious signs of nonnormality, stoch vol or of autocorrelation in either the log returns or the absolute returns. However, there seems perhaps to be some element of trendiness on the *frequency* of around 50 time intervals. It might have been generated by something of the form Return = Drift + Normal Increment where the drift changes sign with probability approx (1/50) on each time step. 
Johnny Jupiter Phynancial phorecasting by the stars for the stars 



James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


My answer on prediting, not trading:
y = 5E09x^3  4E05x^2 + 0.0971x + 75.262 R2 = 0.691
I'd post my Excel graph if I could figure out how to insert it. 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 


James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


Okay, I put the data on a log scale and did a sixth order polynomial regression over a 1 step series and got this:
y = 4E19x^6 + 7E15x^5  4E11x^4 + 1E07x^3  0.0002x^2 + 0.1366x + 77.085
R2 = 0.8324
Using the simple trading rule: "long when one standard deviation below, hold for one standard deviation above, then short, then rebuy when it is one standard deviation below" I cant make any money. 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 



RFMontraz

NP Italian Stallion

Total Posts: 2021 
Joined: Mar 2004 


Sorry James but you gotta keep in mind that also elements like me are unfortunately hanging around here in the hope of getting a bit smarter (less dumb). What is that you are saying? 
Fund Raising and Racketeering, Capital Structure Demolition LLC
 What the fuck you mean "not interested" you motherfucker you?? 


James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


I'm just fitting a curve, that you can then extend into the future. Essentially, it is a 'time series.' I am arguing that the data is best explained by a function of time itself, and that you can set up a simple trading rule around standard deviations above and below this curve.
My time series starts at one (1) and moves in steps of one. It could start at "Jan 1 1985" and move in single days and still have the same curve fitting it. 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 



FDAXHunter

Founding Member

Total Posts: 8372 
Joined: Mar 2004 


James, are you smoking crack? Polynomials obtained through least squares regression can almost never be used for time series prediction. 
The Figs Protocol. 


James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


Yep, I know. I was just adding to the chorus of "One realisation of a random walk might well contain some trend or pattern that appears significant." If the random walk has the same time scale for observations, you get my result.
Hard to argue with an R^2 of 0.8324, unless you knew that projecting from same over a onestep series was scary disasterous.
This isn't my sandbox, so I only know the simple sand castle structures that *don't* work from watching other kids gleefully discover then and have it tumble down.
"can almost never be used for time series prediction"
are there ones that can? tell me now! 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 



Johnny

Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333 
Joined: May 2004 


Time for Nonius to reveal all?
No, Nonius, put that thing away ... 
Johnny Jupiter Phynancial phorecasting by the stars for the stars 


James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


"No, Nonius, put that thing away ..."
Given what Nonius often whips out, and what you sometimes grab....
never mind. 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 



FDAXHunter

Founding Member

Total Posts: 8372 
Joined: Mar 2004 


James: Hard to argue with an R^2 of 0.8324, unless you knew that projecting from same over a onestep series was scary disasterous
Try a 6301 degree polynomial I bet you'd get an even better R^2. 
The Figs Protocol. 


James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


But I think I will try a 50 just for fun, since Johnny found something there. 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 



Nonius

Founding Member Nonius Unbound

Total Posts: 12808 
Joined: Mar 2004 


I could fit it perfectly with an infinite series of Genetic Feedback Wanklets. 
Chiral is Tyler Durden 


James

NP High Priest

Total Posts: 2024 
Joined: May 2004 


"Genetic Feedback Wanklets"
He's whipping it out!
Johnny, don't touch! 
Prior to the publication of the BlackScholes model in 1973, the quest for a valuation formula that would describe option prices reflected one of the most elusive goals in financial economics. Though much work was done in the 1960s, many of the insights and techniques used to solve the problem were presented or anticipated at the beginning of the twentieth century by Louis Bachelier, an obscure French mathematician. These innovations include the first graphical representation of option pricing, a mathematical description of stock prices utilizing Brownian motion and anticipating the efficient market hypothesis, and the first formal option pricing formula. 



Johnny

Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333 
Joined: May 2004 


James, it's probably best if you could keep your homoerotic fixations to yourself, don't you think?

Johnny Jupiter Phynancial phorecasting by the stars for the stars 


Johnny

Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333 
Joined: May 2004 


So Nonius, you've had your three replies, what's the answer?

Johnny Jupiter Phynancial phorecasting by the stars for the stars 


