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gilgamesh


Total Posts: 24
Joined: Nov 2005
 
Posted: 2005-11-21 18:57
Hi!

For institutional macro modelling and analysis of monetary policy I really, really recommend:

"The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling", Øyvind Eitrheim, Gunnar Bårdsen, Eilev S. Jansen and Ragnar Nymoen, Advanced texts in Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 2005

It uses one example throughout the whole text (Norway), which I find pedagogically sound. Also, it carries the recommendation of nobel laureate Clive Granger.

I believe it is important to practice a hands on approach when it comes to analysis of current events, no need to get lost in the details. Some blogs you might find interesting for this purpose:

www.econbrowser.com - By James Hamilton (author of Time Series Analysis, 1994) and Menzie Chinn (fx and internation trade guru).

http://www.capitalspectator.com/ - focuses on the big numbers, quite nice.

There are many more, you probably already have some favourites.

Thanks for you attention!

Omnis determinatio est negatio

ball_lightning


Total Posts: 295
Joined: Dec 2004
 
Posted: 2005-11-21 23:16
nice links there gilgamesh. thanks!

uNclearPhynance: Illegitimi Non Carborundum

euridice


Total Posts: 175
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2006-02-21 11:36

roubini's notes are online (here), though i'm not sure they're really what you're after.  still, they have the advantage of being free, at least for now.

 

jungle,

i followed the like u gave a few months ago, it was great to have those notes.

now roubini apprently set up a commercial site and i can't find them anymore

anyone have had the good idea to keep them ?

edit : http://www.stern.nyu.edu/%7Enroubini/LNOTES.HTM


Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad

jaiman


Total Posts: 251
Joined: Oct 2004
 
Posted: 2006-02-21 18:12

a whole bunch of macro (and other stuff) can be found here 

 


IAmEric
Phorgy Phynance
Banned
Total Posts: 2961
Joined: Oct 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-07 23:18
Yo,

Johnny pointed out this reference in another thread, but I thought I would add it to the collection here. The bibliography is available and many of the references contain links to the pdfs.

Microfoundations of Financial Economics

Has anybody had a look at the following stuff?

Input-Output Economics

Harlequin


Total Posts: 114
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-07 23:25

concerning the input-output stuff, well thats just matrix algebra, and by the time input-output tables are published they are already old (if they published regulary at all).

solong

harli


Johnny
Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-08 14:28

Eric, for the Leontief stuff, just read Varian. Actually, read Varian anyway regardless of Leontief.

 


The sound of one bear, uh, in the woods

Henrik


Total Posts: 803
Joined: Nov 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-08 14:38

Agree with Johnny.

I read varian at university and he, if anyone, can make micro economics seem almost interesting. Smiley


Friendly ghost

doctorwes


Total Posts: 577
Joined: May 2005
 
Posted: 2006-03-08 15:36

Leontief assumes constant returns to scale and no joint production, which makes the mathematics simpler but is not economically realistic. I think von Neumann's linear production model is more general (I'm not familiar with it) and I know Sraffa's is.

Even though it's all just linear algebra, there are some surprisingly non-trivial things going on with these models, and it's quite neat to see how mathematical results (like the Perron-Frobenius theorem) lead directly to conclusions about political economy (like the trade-off between wages and profits).




Johnny
Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-08 15:47

... and I know Sraffa's is.

That's the second time you've mentioned Sraffa. I didn't know anybody still took him seriously. Even by the time he published his little book the wave had passed him by. Still, he had a great library. That's got to count for something.

 


The sound of one bear, uh, in the woods

doctorwes


Total Posts: 577
Joined: May 2005
 
Posted: 2006-03-08 16:08

Just because someone's forgotten doesn't mean they were wrong. If his basic approach was incorrect, then so were Leontief's and von Neumann's. He was just impolite enough to draw some awkward conclusions* and so it was convenient to ignore him.

*Who "won" the Cambridge Capital Controversy, anyway? Hint: Samuelson eventually admitted he was wrong about reswitching.




Johnny
Founding Member

Total Posts: 4333
Joined: May 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-08 17:25

"Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities" is the only book I've ever stolen from a library, so there must have been a time when I agreed with you. My so-called economics education was entirely at the school of awkward conclusions. My interests were (in economics) and are (in finance) entirely within the realm of awkwardness. My post was motivated not by disagreement, but by surprise that anyone should mention Sraffa at all, let alone twice in quick succession. :)

 


The sound of one bear, uh, in the woods

IAmEric
Phorgy Phynance
Banned
Total Posts: 2961
Joined: Oct 2004
 
Posted: 2006-03-08 18:05
kung fu masters Worship

doobs


Total Posts: 840
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2021-05-18 16:41
It has been a long time since I had formal exposure to Macroeconomics, and I would like to refresh on topics and learn about new developments? Looking for recommendations -starting point.

tabris


Total Posts: 1284
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2021-06-09 00:06
I am starting to think a lot of so called phds/researcher/strategists/cb hype mans need to learn about new developments as well... its interesting that this is brought up now because I'd almost venture to say that a lot of the people that thought they know how to forecast/predict/generate inflation are proving that they indeed knew next to nothing about the idea and their old ways need to be refreshed.

Dilbert: Why does it seem as though I am the only honest guy on earth? Dogbert: Your type tends not to reproduce.

Maggette


Total Posts: 1313
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2021-06-09 08:02
@tabris
If you can carve out the time an effort, I would be very interested if you could expand a bit on that?

Are you implying it was different in the past: inflation forecasts were accurate?

Thanks in advance.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

doobs


Total Posts: 840
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2021-06-09 15:34
yes, I second Maggette on this.

vinpao


Total Posts: 22
Joined: Mar 2013
 
Posted: 2021-06-09 16:25
Is it a coincidence that the concept of "half-life of knowledge" was coined by an economist?

tabris


Total Posts: 1284
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2021-06-10 01:10
Sure let me just expand a bit.

First lets look at the bottom feeding central banks that fails at generating inflation like ECB and BOJ. Remember when 2013 everyone cheered and thought Japan would turn their sinking ship around because they embarked on this new regime where there is massive stimulus so they would eventually get back to 2% inflation? BOJ predicted 2% inflation is achievable by 2019 back then. Even bank economists predicted that sure we don't trust BOJ's forecast but we think this will pan out very well so we think 1% inflation is achievable. Neither happened. I specifically used BOJ as an example because the forecast coincides with a period without too much external risk factors since looking at ECB would come with ALOT more excuses.

So lets go to the usual arguments like China and US had tensions so that dragged on Japan exports. (Self fulfilling because neither China nor US suffered from this tension and if you looked at peripheral countries they were all doing fine). So they cannot really blame tensions or trump that they didn't achieve inflation.

Lets look at internal factors like aging population/labor market etc. First the aging population argument has been played to death and that has always been there but somehow all these economists still believed that the country embarking on this grand QE would succeed in stoking inflation. Then there is the argument that tight labor market would generate wage inflation which would put upward pressure on inflation. This wage inflation has proven to be a LOT stickier than economists thought (not just Japan that had something like 2.5-3% unemployment rate and still cannot muster any decent wage inflation) but something that is happening globally.

*rant* To quote Homer Simpsons: "Everything looks bad when you remember it".

Sure you can argue that inflation forecasts and prediction were never accurate for maybe a good 20 years but this is where my problem is. Inflation is actually never well understood in the first place and has proven to be a lot more complicated now as globalization has made other factors like money movement and labor shortages pressure harder to predict. A huge majority of the population still think central banks know what they are doing and that they are controlling the first order affect of inflation sensitivity. We are probably now witnessing that interest rates are more a second order (maybe even third order) and the causal relationship amongst other factors that they believed in might just be backfilling some story that make sense, not because they actually understood how inflation actually works with things like leverage/stimulus/technology/and wages. But with all that unknowns, nobody actually throws away their old Philips curve model or what not but just continue following the same old way of doing their analysis... *end rant*

Dilbert: Why does it seem as though I am the only honest guy on earth? Dogbert: Your type tends not to reproduce.

Maggette


Total Posts: 1313
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2021-06-10 07:19
Thanks tabris.

Since my focus was on statistics and OR, I only had an introductionary class in economics plus one macro- and one microeconomics class. So I am by no means an expert in the field of economics in general...let alone inflation forecasting.

Mircoeconomics made a lot of sense to me. But macro appeared to be flat out crazy.

Obviously among people with a background in hard sciences and/or engineering it has become almost mainstream to bash macro-economics for their lack of predictive power (the dismal science, the advent of econophysics (who didn't solve the big problems either)).

I have no problem with that we don't understand inflation. It's a hard problem. I am not even sure that I do agree with how it is measured. But I do have a problem that decision-makers, the media and the probably the general public thinks or pretends that we do understand it. The level of confidence in the debates is borderline unbearable. Often a political agenda plays into it as well.

Maybe a website with a comprehensive dashboard that presents the predictions and errors from institutions and leading economics departments would be a healthy thing. And constantly to force them to make predictions.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 1360
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2021-06-10 12:27
Monetary space is like a battlefield. It's difficult to predict its dynamics, however, there are certain links and tools which help to envision it.

At the microlevel/short term math is quite ok. At macrolevel/long term it's more difficult, because its evolution depends sometimes on geopolitical decisions or other like this

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/07/digital-currencies-pose-threat-to-economy-warns-bank-of-england

or like this

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/china-arrests-over-1100-suspects-for-crypto-related-money-laundering.html

... What is a man
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? (c)
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